ALEX NOREN gave me my third winner in three weeks last weekend as he won the Nedbank Challenge. The Swede was 20-1 antepost but much bigger than that when he trailed by six shots going into the final round.
He fired a super 65 to win by six and could again be the man to beat this weekend.
The top 60 European players are taking part in the DP World Tour Championship, the final tournament of the season and the finale of the Road to Dubai.
There are four players, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Danny Willett and Noren who can win the Race to Dubai jackpot at the Earth Course, Jumeirah, Dubai.
I think long hitters, good GIR and putts per GIR are going to be important this week. In his last 16 rounds Italian Francesco Molinari has only been over 70 once and that was at the US PGA with a 71.
He has been going along nicely in the last few months and won his home Open in September. Although he’s had a quiet year when you look at his stats they have all improved with the exception of GIR (70.14%).
He is hitting the ball longer than he has for three years and his accuracy is better along with putts per GIR of 1.66. In the last six years at this tournament he has finished in the top 20 five times, including a fourth last year. Looks a solid bet.
It took Noren 214 events to win his first four Tour events but only 11 to notch up his next four. He hits around 290 yards off the tee, GIR of 72.4%, putts per GIR of 1.75 and driving accuracy of 57.59%. It has been a phenomenal season for the Swede and in the form he is in it is hard to leave him out for this week.
With two top threes in his last three outings Andy Sullivan is showing some good form. He won three times on the Tour last year but has only managed five top 10s this year.
He was unlucky at the Portugal Masters where he was defending his title and came up against a rejuvenated Padraig Harrington. I watched him at the Nedbank at the weekend and he played some really good golf to finished T3.
He missed a few putts in the final round but overall played really well. He is also a long hitter and accurate (64.67%). His GIR stat is 72.04% and putts per GIR 1.76.
1.5pts ew Francesco Molinari (William Hill, 28-1)
1.5pts ew Alex Noren (Betfair, 16-1)
1.5pts ew Andy Sullivan (Betfair 25-1)