31st July 2017 at 11:34 pm #114629
Tips for Day 1 at Goodwood courtesy of Betfred…
Goodwood 2017: Matt Hulmes’ Day 1 Preview! 🏇
Glorious by name. Glorious by nature. The track, the scenery, the atmosphere, the quality of racing, Goodwood has it all. And we will be enjoying it with five fantastic days of action ahead.
The big race of day one is the Goodwood Cup. This centres around Ascot Gold Cup hero Big Orange who looks set to go off odds on favourite. His trainer Michael Bell is very bullish about his chances of landing a third Goodwood Cup on the spin and not much of a case can be made against him. At the prices though, there is some value in the each way element as its almost double figures bar Big Orange.
There has been plenty of support for Prince Of arran following comments from trainer Charlie Fellowes that his price was too big. He was travelling well into the straight in the Gold Cup but didn’t see out the trip and back to two miles here, he is a frame contender, as is Northumberland Plate winner Higher Power, Queen Alexandra victor Oriental Fox and top hurdler Wicklow Brave. Throw former St Leger Heroine Simple Verse and 2016 Derby second US Army Ranger into the mix, and you get a sense of the quality lining up against the new people’s favourite.
I will recommend a couple of quid each way though on Sheikhzayedroad and also in the betting without Big Orange market. He was a length and half behind twelve months ago but Doncaster Cup and Champions Day wins suggest improvement. He is more effective at this trip than the 2m 4f of the Ascot race and is a solid place contender to chase home Big Orange once more.
The Lennox Stakes may only be a Group 2 but the quest from Goodwood to get it upgraded will be helped by this year’s renewal which hosts plenty of genuine Group One horses. Limato has been declared by Henry Candy who is on weather watch and may have a direct line straight to Clerk of the Course Seamus Buckley at Goodwood to be updated on conditions as last years July Cup hero likes to hear his hooves rattle and will need good ground at worst. There has been plenty of support for Librisa Breeze this week following his fourth place finish in the Golden Jubilee and is 2/3 in races over this specialist seven furlong trip. Last years 1-2 Dutch Connection and Home Of The Brave take each other on once more, with the latter taken to overturn the form coming off the back of two success from two races this campaign.
The two three-year-olds are also of interest. They were second and fifth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and although Spirit Of Valor has won since in Ireland, I think Dream Castle can overturn the form. He has had a break following four quick runs to start his career, following up a breath-taking Doncaster debut with a solid effort to finish second to Barney Roy in the Greenham. He was a fair fifth in the guineas and was away from where the action unfolded at Ascot. Getting 5lb from his elders I think Dream Castle is a danger to all.
We start with a very competitive handicap where most, if not all have some sort of questions to answer. Garcia will be popular following his returning fifth in the John Smith’s Cup at York last time following a year off the track. There is the dreaded bounce factor to consider but he has the services of Ryan Moore and will likely be favourite. Top weight What About Carlo may be handicapped to the hilt now, Khairaat was strongly fancied at Royal Ascot but faded tamely in a messy race and needs to bounce back while Murad Khan improved for the first time hood last time but will the headgear work again for in form Hugo Palmer? Eddystome Rock is interesting, finishing just a length behind Garcia at York but is more than double the price while UAE Prince was just ahead of both of them and will have his fans.
I can’t help but have a few quid each way though on Oasis Fantasy. He doesn’t win very often, just three wins in 33 starts but he loves it at Goodwood as course figures of 14272 would suggest and he was second in this race twelve months ago off 5lb higher mark. Jamie Spencer is the man you want to pick his way through a tight field, although will need plenty of luck as these races at Goodwood always involve the rough and tumble but prices of 14/1 are more than fair.
The juveniles are up next in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes. Aidan O’Brien saddles Seahenge who won on debut at Naas by a neck recently but was a 6/1 shot on that occasion and maybe worth taking on, even though the handler has won the contest twice in the last three years. Mildenberger was very impressive under a penalty at Newbury recently on ground on the soft side so will handle conditions well, while Expert Eye put up a professional performance, and one that immediately took the eye when also wining at the Berkshire venue. The third and fourth home that day have won since, giving the form some substance and he may just come out on top, but with plenty of imponderables, no bet is advised.
There is a cracking sprint handicap at 4.45 where Vibrant Chords and A Momentofmadness clash once more. They were first and second respectively over track and trip in early May and have held their form well since. Only three quarters of a length separated them with the runner-up now 1lb better off. There should be little between them once more but with the likes of last time out winners Atletico and Love On The Rocks in opposition, this is one to watch.
The maiden contest at 4.10 is difficult to fathom but it usually pays to stick with the market principals as nine of the last ten winners have started at single figure prices while the Fillies’ handicap to conclude the card is full of improving types from leading yards and will be best spent in the bar.
*Odds Subject To Change – All Odds Correct As Of 10:50 Monday 31st July.*
Oasis Fantasy – 1.50 Goodwood – 1pt E/W
Sheikhzayedroad – 3.35 Goodwood – 1pt E/W
Sheikhzayedroad (Betting W/O Big Orange) – 3.35 Goodwood – 1pt E/W
31st July 2017 at 11:35 pm #114631
And from Betfair…
Baydar primed to go well on preferred ground
You will doubtless hear all week at Goodwood that you have to be drawn low on the round course. But I’ve always been a contrary soul – well, a bit more than a soul, but swearing is forbidden in these pages – so I suggest backing Baydar from the widest stall in the 18-runner 1m2f handicap at 13:50 at 23.00 or bigger.
A look at the recent runnings of the race suggests that being drawn wide isn’t an insurmountable problem at all. The winner came from 16 last year, and from 10 in 2015. While in 2014 the first four home were housed in 13, 16, 15 and 14. Statistically, those stats aren’t worth a hill of beans in the wider picture, I know, but it helps my case a bit, so in it goes.
Baydar does have a lot better chance than his recent runs suggest. For example, I thought he shaped a lot better than the final position suggests over 1m4f at Haydock last time and the handicapper has done him a favour by dropping him 2lb.
Some will look at his three runs this season and see modest efforts, but they have been on unfavoured fast ground – I know he has won on good to firm but he apparently didn’t enjoy it all – and his big steps forward last autumn came with a bit of cut.
At the time of writing it is good to soft at Goodwood and that will be perfect for him (though I suspect it will be good by Tuesday afternoon). Those were the prevailing conditions when he won a 1m2f Newbury handicap last season.
That win came off only a 2lb higher mark than this, and that race worked out incredibly well. The second, fourth, fifth, and sixth have all won since, and the third has only run once subsequently. He is handicapped to win again.
Hugo Palmer thought he was a “stakes horse in the making” last season – and he went off just 9/1 for the Brigadier Gerard in May – and the key to this horse returning to form could be easier ground than of late, and stepping back to 1m2f in what will hopefully be a strongly-run race.
His hold-up style means he will need the breaks to come at the right time but perhaps his jockey will adopt to come wide, instead, and play it safe. Whatever the tactics, he is no 20/1 poke to my eye, and I just hope the ground doesn’t dry up too much in the next 24 hours with a going stick reading of 6.5 on Monday morning.
I do think Garcia is the correct favourite and a fair price at 6/1+, though my days backing Oasis Fantasy finished at York last time. Not even a first-time hood, and cheekpieces, could tempt me in again!
Zaman fancied to put in a vintage performance
Tuesday is quite a tricky punting card, and I originally didn’t have a betting opinion in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at 14:25. Predictably so perhaps, given that 2yo races full of lightly-raced and unexposed types don’t tend to register too highly on my punting radar.
It is not hard to see why Seahenge heads the market at around 3.60. He represents the stable that won this race twice in the last three years, and there was a lot to like about the way that this $750,000 Scat Daddy colt beat two fair maidens over 6f at Naas on his debut. Of course, he needs to improve, but he almost certainly will. And similar comments apply to Sir Michael Stoute’s Newbury winner Expert Eye.
Cold Stare, James Garfield and Zaman are the form horses though, and first-time blinkers on the latter after his Superlative Stakes fourth are interesting. And the 12/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook tempted me in to an each-way bet on him. That price simply looks too big.
Charlie Appleby is excellent when applying headgear – he is 5 from 26 with blinkers in recent years, with D’Bai on Saturday the most recent scorer – and, prior to Newmarket, Zaman beat the subsequent Prix Robert Papin winner Unfortunately at Pontefract.
A stellar renewal of the Lennox
I quickly filed the Lennox Stakes at 15:00, in the “too difficult” tray. It’s an absolutely superb renewal, surely the best running of the race yet, and I can’t argue with Librisa Breeze and Limato heading up the market at around 4/1.
The only problem is that you can give at least four of five others a big chance on form, notably the improving Spirit Of Valor, and I simply can’t see an edge to the race. One to watch, and savour, methinks.
Big Orange worth taking on in Goodwood Cup
Limato will want sun and wind for the next 24 hours, and the same is true of Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup at 15:35. As I said earlier, it currently good to soft, and that would spell bad news for his backers at around the 10/11 mark as he is just one from eight when encountering cut in the ground.
Good ground will be fine for him, although his very best efforts have come on faster, but I just think he is worth taking on at the price, even if there were two high-profile defections from the race on Monday. I was going to back the Qatar Racing duo Simple Verse and Pallasator against him. I say was because Simple Verse was withdrawn because of a pulled muscle on Monday morning, as was Dai Harraild due to lameness.
The Simple Verse no-show was annoying because, while she cut out like out like a cheap bedside lamp in the Gold Cup and finished tailed off, she was still in there pitching coming into the straight and I thought the step back to two miles made her a big player.
But she’s gone, and I am happy to rely on Pallasator at 27.00 or bigger. He has to bounce back from a poor run in May, and hasn’t been seen out since. But reports of his recent homework have been promising, and I imagine this has been the plan for a while given his connections. He was a 1 ¼ length second to Big Orange in this race last year – and fourth in 2015 – and I just think this tricky customer deserves more respect than odds of around suggests on that run alone.
I thought Vibrant Chords would go well in the 5f handicap at 16:45 and Amabalis is still handicapped to win races in the 1m handicap at the end of the card, but neither are bets at the prices.
Back Baydar at 23.00 or bigger in 13:50 at Goodwood
Back Zaman 12/1 each-way with Betfair Sportsbook in 14:25 at Goodwood
Back Pallasator at 27.00 or bigger in 15:35 at Goodwood
31st July 2017 at 11:36 pm #114632
And from Coral…
Dettori back in the saddle
Settle back as a summer of magnificent British horse racing action continues. Goodwood starts on Tuesday, and Coral are betting on every race, including the group two Vintage Stakes, Lennox Stakes and group one Goodwood Cup.
As you would expect, our in form team of tipsters, who found a list of nice price winners last week, take aim on the West Sussex track. We’ve got everything you need to boost your betting balance, from our popular race-by-race selections to NAP of the card. Click here to place your big price multiples, or read on for our ace.
It’s difficult to oppose Big Orange
The 1.50pm handicap starts things off, and we’re hopeful Abdon will get the ball rolling with a nice price winner, but we’re waiting until race of the day for our main play, the 3.35pm Goodwood Cup Stakes. A group one affair, decided over the two-mile trip, a bumper 16-runner field contest a near £300,000 prize pot.
The one to take home the winner’s cheque – if our thinking proves to be shrewd – is fans’ favourite Big Orange. It’s extremely difficult to go against Michael Bell’s superstar, who arrives at course on the back of a jaw-dropping win in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in June. Going off a big price that day, he beat odds-on favourite Order Of St George into second, a short-head the recorded winning distance.
Back the NAP sooner rather than later
That win followed success at Sandown back in May, winning the Henry II Stakes, a far more convincing champion on that occasion, slapping down Higher Power by five lengths. Will he bank a hat-trick of group successes? We reckon so, as do our traders, who make the selection a red-hot favourite, 4/5 available at the time of writing. That’s sure to be popular in midweek accumulators.
Big Orange is a previous course and distance winner, taking this race in 2015 and again 12 months ago. Frankie Dettori was in the saddle for that win at Sandown earlier this year, and is back doing the steering again today. That’ll attract the attention of casual punters, so getting on Big Orange sooner rather than later looks a smart move.
1.50 – Abdon
2.25 – Expert Eye
3.00 – Limato
3.35 – Big Orange
4.10 – Tribal Quest
4.45 – Atletico
5.15 – Ghadaayer
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