14th November 2017 at 9:51 pm #123466aceventurerModerator
The finale of the season comes to a head in the DP World Tour Championship on the Earth Course, at the Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai with only three players in a position to win the Race to Dubai title. The fairways are beautifully laid out and are very generous so driving accuracy no a prerequisite. There are also plenty of large bunkers around the course with water coming into play on five holes, four of them after the 14th. I probably will be focusing on GIR, putts per GIR and form coming into this week could also be important.
Tommy Fleetwood, who leads Justin Rose by 256,737 points only needs to equal or better the Masters runner-up to win the title, and Sergio Garcia, who needs to win here and Fleetwood to finish outside to twenty with Rose no better than a solo fourth.
While those three battle it out for the Race to Dubai title, there is, of course the matter of who is going to win the actual DP WOrld Tour Championship. With their minds on the big prize you would think ruling out the three contenders for the Race to Dubai title, but with the form that Justin Rose is in how could you..
With wins in China and Turkey in the last three weeks the Englishman is in top form. He has also been placed tenth three times and has a second in his four outings before his wins. He sat out the Nedbank Challenge last week and will hopefully be rejuvenated after his trip exertions. While the likes of Fleetwood and Grace were battling it out on the final day in South Africa, Justin Rose was in Dubai beginning his preparations early. His odds are not that great (7-1 best price) but it’s hard to see passed him winning the tournament and the Race to Dubai.
GIR: 72.8% (12th) Putts per GIR: 1.779 (104th)
Defending champion Matthew Fitzpatrick is also in a rich vein of form. Since winning the Omega European Masters he has been in the top 15 in all of his six appearances on Tour. Last week at the Nedbank was marred by a second round 77 but then shot two sub 70 rounds for a T8 finish. I just get the feeling he is not far away from that second win this season and what better place to get it. With the win last year here and a fourth finish in 2015 Fitzpatrick looks a solid bet this week.
GIR:70.8% (39th) Putts per GIR: 1.767 (56th)
One player who hasn’t been hitting the headlines but has some great form over the past couple of months. Eddie Pepperell has SIX top ten finishes in his last eight tournaments. In those top tens there are two T3s and two T5s with a sixth and seventh, which is impressive by any standards. The only thing that go against him at the Earth Course is in his two appearances here his best finish is 26th. He has only missed one cut in ten and this has been his best season on the Tour, which will get even better with a good finish on Sunday. In this field he is definitely one of the form horses and I think at the prices being offered he is worth a chance.
Pepperell GIR: 72.2% (19th) Putts per GIR: 1.78 (109th)
3.00 win Justin Rose (Coral 6-1)
1.50 ew Matthew Fitzpatrick (Ladbrokes 16-1)
1.50 ew Eddie Pepperell (Bet365 60-1)
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