FK Qarabag v BATE Borisov
UEFA Champions League Qualifying. Kick-off: Tuesday 7th August 6:00pm.
THE journey to the promised land of the Champions League group stages continues again this midweek with the 3rd qualifying round fixture between Azerbaijan champions Qarabag and the champions of Belarus BATE Borisov.
The fixtures are getting tougher for all after this year's shake-up of the competition and will only get tougher with the winner of this tie facing Dutch giants PSV Eindhoven in the playoff round.
Both sides have their own credentials though with both having experience of the group stages, BATE being group regulars between 2008 and 2015 and looking to end a 3-year wait to get back into the groups and Qarabag being in the groups only last year facing the likes of Roma, Chelsea and Atletico Madrid, who they held 0-0 at home.
Goal-shy Qarabag
The hosts don't kick off their domestic season until this weekend but have played two qualifiers to get to this stage beating Slovenians Olimpija Ljubljana and Kukesi of Albania and it is worth noting they have yet to concede a goal in the qualifiers.
In their domestic league last season they only lost one match at home and conceded 4 in 14 home matches.
Over the full season they averaged 1.79 goals per match and a massive 22/28 of their matches went under 2.5 goals. Qarabag are a well-organised side who probably rely on their home form and are unbeaten in 11 champions league qualifiers at home (6 wins and 5 draws) whilst only conceding twice in those 11 matches.
Their overall Champions League home record is also very good having only lost 2 of 14 and those were to Chelsea and Roma in last year's group stages. Six out of their last 8 matches in the competition have gone under 2.5 goals which included their group stage campaign last season, so they held their own defensively at home to the big boys.
BATE ready
Moving on to BATE and they have a potential advantage of being 17 games into their domestic season and sit 7 points clear at the top of their domestic league. Although they may be sharper or more match fit they have had one qualifier less than their opponents and beat a stuffy and well-organised HJK Helsinki side 2-1 on aggregate with the win coming in Finland after a 0-0 draw at home but this was only their 2nd win in 20 away champions league matches and it looks like they suffer from the same travel sickness as Celtic do in Europe.
It looks like it is not only Europe where they suffer on their travels with 70% of their total goals conceded domestically last season coming away from home and that stat is currently exactly the same for the current campaign. They average 2.35 goals per match this season so far and 10/17 have went under 2.5 goals.
It is probably with no surprise under 2.5 goals is best priced 1-2 (Boylesports) .
I expect Qarabag to take a low scoring lead to Belarus for the 2nd leg and will be extremely happy if they can keep a clean sheet also. Qarabag to win is best priced 23-20 (BetVictor) and a clean sheet is for the home side is tempting at 6-5 (bet365).
Recommended bets
- Qarabag win 23/20 (BetVictor)
- Under 2.5 goals 1/2 (Boylesports)
- Qarabag clean sheet 6/5 (Bet365)
Personal bet
- Qarabag and under 2.5 goals (11-4, bet365)
In December 2020 we sadly 
Nice informative right up there, & have to agree with all ur recommended bets.
My first thought also for this game was home win & unders, so hopefully it comes home with the bacon?
Gd luck ?
Qarabag and unders for me too.
Btts for me