AFTER a couple of busy nights there's not a lot happening on Thursday.
Club Brugge should win their derby against at lowly Cercle Brugge but best price is 7-10 at Betway. The bigger Brugge side did well to draw 2-2 at Anderlecht at the weekend and need the points as the play-offs near.
In the Greek Cup PAOK should be too good for struggling Levadiakos who have been particularly poor on their travels. PAOK are 5-11 at 188bet.
Lens take on giantkilling Epinal in the French Cup and I'm wary of backing the home after the way the games went last night. Epinal knocked out Lyon and Lens are just 3-5 at Betway.
The Bruges-PAOK double pays just over evens while Betway go just under 3-1 if you add Lens.
I'm off to golf in the morning so will check in late afternoon to see if any has come up with any gems.
Recommendation
Bruges/PAOK double
Pays £23.80 to a £10 stake at Betway
In December 2020 we sadly 
Nothing for me Thursday for the football, have had a good look over all the games and just a poor night really, maybe come up with something later, but going to look forward to the friday night game and the weekend:
Brighton v Huddersfield
Saturday, 15:00
Late promotion contenders Brighton have the chance to consolidate their position in the play-off spots when they host struggling Huddersfield at the Amex Stadium.
Gus Poyet’s side have won admirers for the way they have played this season, and the Seagulls could earn themselves a route into the play-offs if they keep up this late charge. Just one league defeat in their last nine and three wins in four have pushed Brighton into sixth place in the Championship, and fans of the south-coast club will be desperate for their team to remain in that crucial top six for the rest of the season. The versatile David Lopez scored the winner last time out against Burnley, with the Spaniard having contributed five goals in his last 10 games.
Huddersfield are on no such run of form however, with just two victories from their last 18 outings. The Terriers ground out a goalless draw against Ipswich at home most recently, although the match before that they were thumped 6-1 at Nottingham Forest. Mark Robins’ side managed to resign former striker Theo Robinson on loan from Derby, but it was ex-Everton frontman James Vaughan that gave the new boss his first three points with a narrow 1-0 win over Burnley in midweek. That could leave the visitors tired ahead of their trip to Brighton, however.
As Brighton have won three of their last four games without conceding, and Huddersfield have let in 19 goals in their last five league away matches scoring just three times, backing the hosts to Win To Nil appears safe at 2.50.
Back Brighton to win at 1.65
Back Brighton to Win To Nil at 2.50
Wolves v Watford
Friday, 19:45
Second place Watford make the trip to Molineux to face relegation-threatened Wolves, which can be viewed live on Sky Sports 2.
Gianfranco Zola’s Watford have come under fire for supposedly exploiting loopholes in the loan market to supplement their squad this season, as their recent 2-1 victory over Derby which took them into an automatic promotion spot saw the Hornets start with eight loan players. Only one of those came from these shores – Nathaniel Chalobah borrowed from Chelsea – and although the other temporary team members are causing controversy, the fact remains that Watford aren’t breaking any current rules and stand a great chance of securing promotion. Seven wins in their last nine highlight that, and Zola’s side are a powerful force away from home with their 10 victories on the road ranking as the best in the division.
Wolves are in serious danger of dropping down to League One at the end of this season, which would be their second relegation in as many campaigns after they fell through the Premier League trapdoor last May. Dean Saunders taking over as manager hasn’t helped as the West Midlands club are still searching for their first win in 11 league attempts. Their last six matches on home soil have seen an average of two goals conceded a game, and the visit of Watford who have scored the most in the Championship could prove painful.
Considering the contrasting recent fortunes of Watford and Wolves, in terms of picking up points and scoring goals, it seems that backing the visitors in the -1 Handicap Market at 4.40 looks worth a punt.
Back Watford at 2.30
Back Watford with -1 handicap at 4.40
Hull v Birmingham
Saturday, 15:00
Steve Bruce will demand a response from his Hull players when they host Birmingham City at the weekend, after suffering a 4-1 defeat at Bolton last time out.
That loss ended a run of three straight victories for the Tigers and forced them to concede second place in the table to Watford. But Hull have been very strong at home this season, with their 11 wins at the KC Stadium the joint-highest in the Championship. Loan signing George Boyd from Peterborough could make his first start for the club against Birmingham, who Hull beat 3-2 at St Andrew’s earlier in the season. Boyd targeted promotion to the Premier League upon his arrival, and the East Yorkshire club will not be satisfied unless they reach the promised land this campaign.
Birmingham ended a run of three games without victory by winning away at Peterborough, a win that pushed Lee Clarke’s side seven points away from danger. Serbian striker Nikola Zigic broke the deadlock in that game after returning to the side having been dropped for a lack of effort in training, something which Blues can ill afford to allow during the remainder of a testing campaign that currently positions them in 16th.
After their improved performance last time out you could imagine Birmingham putting up some resistance at Hull, but the hosts looks too strong and a 2-1 home scoreline could be worth a flutter at 8.0.
Back Hull to win at 1.70
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TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL
Defeat at White Hart Lane would complete a calamitous fortnight in which the Gunners have been dumped out of the FA Cup by mid-table Championship side Blackburn and seen their odds of progressing to the Champions League quarter-finals drift to 25.0 after a 3-1 home defeat by Bayern Munich.
A Tottenham victory on Sunday would leave Arsenal seven points behind their local rivals and with a tough battle on their hands to claim their customary place in next year’s Champions League. At the moment Tottenham are 1.6 to finish in the top four and Arsenal are 2.08.
And yet, as Arsene Wenger has been fond of saying recently, let’s keep a sense of perspective. For a start, the current league standings are not that different to this time last season. Then, as now, Tottenham were third (with 53 points, compared with 51 now) and Arsenal were four points behind (in fourth place). At the end of the season Arsenal finished third while Tottenham had dropped to fourth, a point behind.
So, for all the positive talk about Gareth Bale-inspired Tottenham and the negativity surrounding RVP-less Arsenal, the truth is that their relative positions have barely changed since last season.
Judged on current form in the Premier League, Wenger’s critics may be surprised to learn that Arsenal are doing better than Tottenham, whether it’s on the popular measure of six-match form (Arsenal rank second only to Manchester United on 13 points, with Tottenham next on 12) or double that number of games (Arsenal also rank second to United on 12-match form, with Tottenham again a point behind in third).
Of course, that doesn’t take account of Arsenal’s setbacks against Blackburn and Bayern Munich, but nor is Tottenham’s FA Cup defeat by Leeds (a Championship side of similar standing to Blackburn) included in those form figures.
That’s not to deny Arsenal have problems. For a start, there is a class gap: their only two defeats in their last 12 Premier League games have been against other big-six sides (Manchester City and Chelsea) and then they were outclassed by Bayern Munich.
The class gap is also evident in the mini-league of top-six teams, in which Arsenal are fifth with an average of just 0.71 points per game. And the Gunners’ away form against top-half teams is unconvincing (one win out of six).
Tottenham are no better, however. Andre Villas-Boas’s side are bottom of the mini-league of top-six teams (with an average of 0.67 points per game) and have won only two out of six at home to top-half teams.
How the teams are ultimately judged will depend on how they perform over the final 11 games of the Premier League campaign, with Sunday’s derby a potential turning point.
A draw is a distinct possibility at 3.6 given how closely matched the two teams are on form and their difficulties in winning games against the higher-class sides.
Over 2.5 goals has to be considered too, as 15 out of 22 (68 per cent) big-six clashes have gone over that mark this season. Even more eye-catching is that fact that 12 of the last 13 north London derbies in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 goals, which is 1.74 to back on Sunday.
A majority of those last 13 league derbies (seven out of 13) have gone over 3.5 goals, which is 2.78 on Sunday’s match.
Tottenham v Arsenal draw at 3.6
Tottenham v Arsenal over 2.5 goals at 1.74
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Southampton v QPR
—————–
Back the draw @ 3.6 (13/5)
Back QPR draw no bet @ 3.0 (2/1)
Southampton and QPR meet at St Mary’s on Saturday afternoon and despite Rangers being 10 points behind The Saints I think this match should be pretty even.
Mauricio Pochettino has started promisingly since taking over from Nigel Adkins back in January and while he’s only registered one win from five, they have been playing very well. Southampton should really have put Everton away at St Mary’s, performed with huge credit at Old Trafford in a 2-1 loss and conceded a last minute equaliser at the DW against Wigan.
On Sunday they went down 4-2 at St James’ Park but they did have plenty of chances to score more. My concern though is that Pochettino has started to tinker with his starting XI as he dropped both Jason Puncheon and Danny Fox for the Newcastle game despite them both playing well in the 3-1 victory over Man City previously.
QPR lost 2-0 at home to Man United at the weekend but it’s games like this one that are the most important to them. Victory would see them reduce the gap with The Saints to seven points and while they would still be at the bottom of the table, they would have huge impetus ahead of a kind run of fixtures against their rivals.
Southampton are the favourites heading into this match, make no mistake, however their odds-on quote is wide of the mark in my opinion. It’s results not performances that count in this league and the team from the South Coast have only won four times at home all season. The value is definitely in the draw at 3.6 (13/5) and I would also advise backing QPR in the DNB market to cover yourself if Harry Redknapp gets one over on his old side, while getting your stake returned if it does indeed finish in the predicted draw.
Wigan v Liverpool
——————
Back Liverpool @ 1.75 (3/4)
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.75 (7/4)
My final selections of the week come at the DW Stadium as Wigan host Liverpool in the Saturday evening tea time game, live on ESPN at 17:30. The Reds are odds-on for this one, and I strongly fancy them to get the job done.
Wigan put back to back wins together last week for the first time since August as they added to their FA Cup victory at Huddersfield by thrashing Reading in the league. This is usually around the time of the season that Roberto Martinez’s men put a strong run together that moves them clear of the relegation zone, and on face value, it appears that history is starting to repeat itself.
I have my concerns though. Huddersfield and Reading are pretty poor sides and while The Latics despatched of them with ease, Liverpool will be another test entirely. Also, in previous years Wigan have had a star player like Charles N’Zogbia or Victor Moses come to the fore, and while they do have Arouna Koné, his two goals at the Madejski were only his seventh and eighth in Wigan colours.
Liverpool went within a whisker of getting past Zenit in the Europa League last week but it wasn’t to be as they finished one goal short of the required margin. Brendan Rodgers made a poor decision in that match to bring on Shelvey and Assaidi just after the third goal went in but history has shown that the Northern Irishman has learnt from his mistakes since being appointed Liverpool manager.
In their last two away games in the league, The Reds have drawn 2-2 with both Arsenal and Manchester City, and they probably should have won both matches after leading and being the better side. The goal scoring problems of last season have subsided and ‘Pool are actually the fifth highest scorers in the division with 49 goals, an average of nearly two per game.
The introduction of Daniel Sturridge has helped take the burden off Luis Suarez’s shoulders and the attacking three are much more fluid with the ex Chelsea player in the mix. He was sorely missed in the 2-0 defeat against West Brom and he should pose plenty of problems for a Wigan defence that has conceded two or more in 11 of their 13 league games this season.
I can’t see past a Liverpool victory in this one, but if you don’t like backing odds-on away from home, then over 3.5 goals at 2.75 (7/4) is a big price considering that four of Liverpool’s last six on the road have achieved it, as have four of Wigan’s last five at home.
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Milesey ( BETFAIR )
THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS
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Back Thornton to win
Back MVG to win
Back Taylor to win
Back Newton-Lewis draw
Back a van Barneveld v Whitlock draw
Milesey
HOME AND AWAY
DOUBLE Thursday 28th Feb 2013
———————-
Bet 1: PAOK (HOME) @ 1.54
Bet 2: Al Ahly (AWAY) @ 2.02
Milesey
Thursdays best BET –
Cercle Brugge V Club Brugge 7.30 k/o
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 in Cercle Brugge v Club Brugge
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LAYS FOR THE WEEKEND
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Lay Over 2.5 goals in Leeds v Millwall @ 2.02
Lay AC Milan to beat Lazio @ 1.7
Lay Real Sociedad to beat Real Betis @ 1.88
Milesey
Something for the WEEKEND
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Chelsea v West Brom (Saturday, 15:00)
Chelsea have gone six Premier League games without keeping a clean sheet, winning only two games in that run
We all know Rafa loves a rant and that the Spaniard is also quite partial to a fact or two. One fact he won’t like is Chelsea’s inability to keep the opposition from scoring in the top-flight. Visitors West Brom should arrive full of confidence after putting together successive Premier League wins, one of them a 2-0 victory at Anfield. The Baggies have only failed to get on the scoresheet once in their last six league road trips.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.83
Everton v Reading (Saturday, 15:00)
Reading have won eight points thanks to goals scored after the 80th minute this season. Only league leaders Manchester United (9) have won more
Reading’s quest for survival may just get a leg-up against an Everton side that they claimed their first victory of the season against in November. The Royals’ best opportunity to get a result appears to lie in grabbing late goals, something Everton have been more than obliging in gifting to opponents this season. After Tottenham, the Toffees have dropped the most points this season as a result of goals scored after the 80th-minute mark.
Recommended Bet: Back Reading to score the last goal @ 4.2
Wigan v Liverpool (Saturday, 17:30, ESPN)
Wigan have conceded in all of their 13 home games in the Premier League this season
The Wigan rollercoaster took a definite climb skywards after the Latics thrashed relegation rivals Reading in their last Premier League game, though a plummet back to earth is never far away you feel. Having scored nine goals in their last four league games, Liverpool will certainly pose a threat here. In fact, only one of the Reds’ last 12 league games have returned under 2.5 goals, while Wigan’s last five have also breached the 2.5 barrier.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.77
Tottenham v Arsenal (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 1)
12 of the last 13 league matches between Tottenham and Arsenal have gone over 2.5 goals
This game promises to be such a belter that Sky Sports decided it was worthy of a stand-alone billing on Sunday (cue the 0-0!). With so much riding on the north London derby, it’s hardly a surprising call, especially given the entertainment value that it has served up in recent seasons. The last two derbies alone have produced a staggering 14 goals and, with so much attacking talent on display, it’s difficult to envisage this game bucking the recent trends.
Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.73
Milesey ( Betfair )
LOL GOT YER 2 GAMES RIGHT HERE
-1 Double – Lens – PAOK
Treble – ClubBrugge – Bursaspor – WislaKrakow
Danny, I might end up putting Lens in, I’ll see. I suppose they should be all right at home while Bordeaux and Nancy were held away in 90 minutes tonight.
Paul just noticed its a cup game not as confident as if it were a league game if they are to go on a good run from now till the end of season promotion still up for grabs it will be there top priority
betway t and c’s awfy confusing amd even the guy on chat didnae have a clue, limit your winnings to £100 on a free bet but have to place 10 bets at evens or above. dont even know if a have to put all £25.50 on next bet or just a tenner as the money will come out cash and bonus £10 will still be left there haha too late for this pish confused.com!!!!
Craig, we explained it all a few months back. I’ll try to find what we said then but for now I’m off to the golf.
jahn regemsburg v sandhausen over 1.5 gls at ht £5 @3.0
club bruges winning at ht £10 @2.1
lens winning at ht £10.50 @2.1
still no gt a clue how this is gonna work but if keep on betting it all on similar bets like these and that last £10 bonus gets a canny go wrong haha
With Celtic losing to Motherwell and ruining my treble of Bayern Munich, Chelsea and of course the Bhoys to win, it’s probably a good job there’s not much football tonight which arouses any interest.
I’ve looked at the games being played on Friday night and the following have caught my eye.
Wolves v Watford
Watford @ 5/4
Watford have bounced back from that surprising defeat to Bristol City with 4 wins out of their last 5 games, including victories at Ipswich and Birmingham where they also managed to keep clean sheets. They travel to a side that are really struggling having not won a game since just before Christmas and have only managed to rack up 4 points out of a possible 24 since the appointment of Dean Saunders.
I’m sure it won’t be an easy game for Watford but considering the contrasting forms of both teams and the fire power that Watford possess in Vydra and Deeney,along with the fact that Watford don’t concede many goals away (only 3 in their last 5 games, including 3 clean sheets)I think they will come away with the three points.
Ajaccio GFCO v Monaco
Monaco @ 4/5
Monaco, who sit five points clear at the top of Ligue 2 travel to the basement boys, Ajaccio, and it’s hard to see how there can be anything other than an away victory here.
Monaco are on a 4 game winning streak and are unbeaten in their last 9 league games. They travel well and have won their last 3 away games by the same score line (2-0).
Ajaccio have lost their last 6 games and while they don’t ship in tons of goals, they don’t score enough and have failed to score in 5 of their last six games.
Monaco should win this quite comfortably, possibly 2-0.
Vitesse v Utrecht
Over 2.5 @ 6/10
Just going to let the stats speak for themselves in this one.
9 of Vitesse’s last 10 league games have finished with over 2.5 goals
7 of Utrecht’s last 10 league games have finished with over 2.5 goals
ALL of the last 10 head to head meetings have finished with more than 3 goals!
Istres v Sedan
Under 2.5 @ 8/15
There shouldn’t be much excitement in a game where both teams struggle to find the back of the net.
5 of Istres’ last 6 league games has been under 2.5 goals and they have failed to score during this period
5 of Sedan’s last 6 games has also seen fewer than 3 goals although they have managed to score 3 goals.
The last three head to head meetings have been under 2.5 goals.
William Hill pays 8.93/1 for the fourfold, although odds maybe higher elsewhere
Dean, it’s useful info. I haven’t looked much at Friday’s games yet but Watford are one who stand out as long as Zola plays his full team.
If you have any thoughts regarding the above post, please share them as I would love your opinion.
Thanks
Dean
guys, i can never understand this ” need to bet every day” image. keep the money that you would have put on 5 team accas tonite and tomorrow night.
instead get studying the card on Sat and place that said money on your own super single irrespective of the price. consistent returns are far better than hard luck stories.
in a lot of cases ive seen bets put up where i probably could not even pronounce the teams name
rant over i,ll get me coat!!!!!!!!!!!!
Robert, I agree with what you say. As a site we try to put up daily tips but sometimes, like tonight, there’s not much on. At the weekend there is more choice so punters shouldn’t panic if they don’t see teams they like on a Thursday or Friday.
That’s the poker tournament set up as a weekly event at 8pm every Thursday. I’ve commented on the poker night thread with all the details Mr F, so you can just copy & paste that, or edit it in any way you want, when you post the next poker thread
Robert its simple the need to bet everyday is for people that are hooked on gambling (mostly football) some in a bad way some in a good way I personaly dont think it would do any harm to have a bet tonight because these are all teams that on occasions have featured on my lines in the past I put up a few tips that took less than 5 minutes to look up prices for just incase anybody fancys them spent another 20 looking at saturday just to early to put my thoughts on them up
as for teams you cant pronounce some of the teams you can find in lower leagues can be little gems Osters and Brommapojkarna were prime examples last season would very rarely let your line down
Thanks Mr F good treble last night Lumped on it Happy Days
I’m going for a weekend double 1st is Watford I will be keeping an eye on the line up vydra the main threat….. Next is Barcelona I know its a weird game 3-1 at the nou camp no1 would have predicted that but as real have Manchester united on Tuesday I expect no ronaldo but I will see the line ups before both games…. Watford 11/8 and barca 7/5
Ronaldo is suspended for the weekends classico lee!
I heard John McGlynn has left Hearts. It was only a couple of days ago we were discussing the sack race as well!
Aye I seen that, never did put money on Craig Brown, went to do it on tuesday night after I got home from the game but the market was gone!
I know this is the football thread, but anyone hit an opinion if the darts tonight?
Oops, sorry got the wrong thread. Please delete my above post
THUNDERSTROM…very clever animal/just does enuff…thanks Milesey :-) Pity about Kabbass (musta swallowed some sand!!) but spot on/great day AGAIN…cheers bud!!
Milesey wot u mean by lay a bet
A LAY is backing the horse / team whatever it may be to not win. So if you think a favourite at 1/6 will not win then you LAY it.
Milesey
To lay a bet is to back something not to happen. For example, to lay Manchester United to win their match is to back them NOT to win. If you were to lay them, you would win your bet if they either lost or drew their match.
With Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk. The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you have to risk compared to your potential reward.
Milesey
cheers again Mr fix-it i won again last night took your tips another 78 that’s near 300 I’ve won following you keep up the great tips done a wee tenner on your tips the day
Sporting Cristal to beat Tigres at 1.8
Tigre are resting virtually their entire team.
– Keeper is injured and second choice is in.
– 2 first choice defenders have not travelled.
– The captain and two fellow first choice midfielders have not travelled.
– Strikers are unfortunately first choice though.
Any 1 fancy whitlock on darts 15/8 decent price since barney got hammered last week 11/10 draw no bet aswell
Cercle Brugge V Club Brugge 7.30 k/o
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 in Cercle Brugge v Club Brugge
DARTS
——–
Taylor
MVG
SINGLES, DOUBLES AND THE TREBLE, are my big money bets tonight, after my singles and double on my NAPS today.
Milesey
3 HOME WINS IN THE COPA TONIGHT
In what was actually a quite well-measured, obviously pre-prepared set of statements yesterday Rafa Benitez – already arch-enemy of the Chelsea fans due to some ill-informed yet completely innocuous comments while Liverpool manager – further alienated himself from the Stamford Bridge faithful after last night’s FA Cup game against Middlesbrough.
The saddening aspects of all this furore around Benitez’s appointment are all but ignored, and they are as follows:
– His original comments as Liverpool manager were, to all intents and purposes, completely harmless. If you take them word-for-word, you’d have to be pretty thin-skinned and altogether quite precious to actually take offence at them. He was managing another club and his remarks were clearly meant to tap into Liverpool’s proud passion and history. He was essentially doing his job. Sir Alex Ferguson has been punchier plenty of times before and since on a whole range of subjects.
– Rafa Benitez is actually quite a good manager. He’s won lots of pots – two La Ligas and a UEFA Cup with Valencia and a Champions League, an FA Cup and European Super Cup with Liverpool, as well as a second place Premier League finish (how they’d kill for that now). This is no rookie. It’s surprising that, while personally he will always divide opinion, there should be no debate about what he has achieved and what he’s capable of achieving as a manager. For instance, lots of people find Harry Redknapp disagreeable but there’s at least an admission he’s quite a good manager. With Benitez, it appears there is a constant open season on his track record, which, as I’ve already mentioned is actually quite good.
But the most salient point about the comments that Benitez made is that he is of course absolutely right. Chelsea fans need to support the club to help them achieve a top four finish this season and this sideshow, this bedsheet circus, this ship of fools that seeks to undermine the manager at every turn is so counter-productive as to be laughable.
If the tragedy continues at this pace, the smart money would surely be laying Chelsea to finish in the top four at 1.34. Arsenal are in decent form (despite yet more misguided press attitudes) having only lost three of their last 19 league games and could pip them to fourth behind Spurs. Maybe, just maybe.
Does any one think wolves v watford will be a BTS?
No, think Watford will win 2-0, 3-0, so i’m on the watford win and the -1 handicap.
Milesey
Darren, will look at this game tomorrow.
Milesey the last two meets have produced a bts, What do you think is differant this time?
Wolves are shocking, and playing shocking, i don’t see them scoring to be honest.
Last 5 home games have scored 5, no wins in that, just 2 draws and 3 wins.
Milesey
Milesey, I can see 2-1 Watford to be honest. Wolves are slowly improving and did score against Cardiff.
* 3 lost.
Milesey
Any ideas on BTS in the euro leagues tomorrow ?
Darren, might look at it tomorrow if I have time but got loads to do for the weekend plus my Record column to start.
Wee £20 dbl on yer two horsie naps milesey … nice1 mate, cheers! ★
Mile set what about dr livingstone in the next at kempton
Milesey what do you think Vitesse Arn. v Utrecht BTS ?
I would expect so in this game, and looking at things over 2.5 goals is a good shout aswell in this game.
Milesey
Cheers for the Thornton tip milesey just need MVG n Taylor for a nice treble
Arles v AUXERRE….. Anybody fancy AUXERRE at 15/8 or is this just too much like DEJA VU ? It could just be that it’s April foooooooooools day tomorrow. Arles have a worst record then Sedan for scoring goals. I think i’ll leave it alone after getting done last time ;) ;)
Milesey
Ah Musta missed March
HA HA HA YEAH ME TOO, WHAT HAPPENED IN THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ? oh my, i’ve just missed a month, hahaha, must be the start of the tax year getting to me already
Milesey
Milesey, it’s amazing that I had to think for a minute if it was April 1. That’s how fast the days go by.
That’s the thing, Cheltenham hasn’t gone yet and already doing things for Aintree and National meeting, which of cause is in April, then all the numbers alday long, handicaps etc…. i start to lose it after a while, be glad for my cheltenham break ;) ;)
Milesey
You ended up bust after Cheltenham ended up in a lunatic asylum hence the April Fools Statement !
That’s okay then, for one minute i thought something bad might have happened ;) ;)
Milesey
Mr F you and anyone else up fpr a few selections for my Betfair Bet/Lay bet for the weekend ?
LAY AC Milan ;)
Milesey
Disagree strongly with that ”lay milan” tip milesey sorry,Milan are unbeaten in 10 of last 11 at home to Lazio,are in great form at home winning of last 7 at home,other was a draw last week in the derby and it was down as an away game ;) scoring at least 2 goals in 5 of those games whilst lazios away form isnt good at all,theyve only won 4 from 12 away games and have conceded 2 in last 3 away games…want to give the lad a chance of getting is bet up so….HOME WIN for me based on stats and form anyway :)
**6 of last 7**
hahaha like your dead cert of Barcelona to beat REAL Madrid ;) ;)
Your forgeting whats just round the corner for this AC MILAN team.
Milesey
Hmmmmmmm typicaly abusive response from mr ”knowitall”im just pointing out the stats and form to the lad so he as a chance,could delve deeper and point out some of the ”LUMP ON BIGS”at shockingly low odds that finished last in 3 horse races but that would be unfair of me as these things happen and youve already proven you are a good horse tipster anyway so theres no point. just giving my thoughts on this game,thats all,it isnt a personal attack :)
You always go back to the same pathetic rubbish, a lame horse that finished 3rd in a 3 horse race, and ? ;) how would i know that ? romping home then had to be slowed down for it went lame, but well done you keep pointing that one out your still a BIG JOKE and you always will be.
Milesey
Milesey Milan dont play barcelona until 12th march,are you saying they are resting players in the 2 weekends before that game????ardly round the corner as you say :)
hahaha even is real Madrid for Man utd, but sir alex has been resting players for the past 2 weeks ;) ;) you are an I D I O T
Milesey
It’s not based on that anyway, It’s based on AC Milan hav not beaten LAZIO in the past 6 games in Serie A !
Milesey
A closer inspection of the stats show this may just be worth a lay. Lazio represent a real bogey team for the Rossoneri over the last three seasons, as Milan have not beaten the capital club in their last six Serie A encounters, losing the previous two, including the meeting earlier in the season. The visitors currently hold a two-point advantage and will probably set up for the draw.
Milesey
1plus2, yeah I’ll offer some picks tomorrow. Spending tonight looking at coupons. What a life!
It’s why ur so Knoledgeable they call you the sponge at the Record ……………..or is that the Sponger ;-)
1plus2, I have a new nickname but I’m not telling.
Pray tell don’t be shy we won’t laugh ;-)
1plus2, to be honest it’s so stupid it doesn’t make sense but one guy in particular is on a mission to make it stick.
Aye m8 u always get one that takes it probably to far in my experience it’s usually down to jealousy on there part imho
Had a bit of a look at your racing tips today Milesey and i noticed you had a few wins and a few loses too….my question is what tips can you give a guy who knows nothing about horses but sees a bit of money making potential in the whole thing
John, that’s the million dollar question. I await his answer with interest.
Stick to the NAPS like i do and build your money up that way. You could follow the money but that doesn’t always work out, also could play the in play markets, like today Jupiter Rex went out to 4.8 purely cause it is a horse that is riden from the back then produced late to take the win.
Milesey
I’ll probably be tipped to keep my money in my pocket and stick to the football :-)
What are naps when it comes to horse racing?
well your nap is obviously your ” best horse racing tip of the day ” based on many factors, form, handicap mark, type of race, opposition….etc
Milesey
I would if you know nothing, not one to be doing on a daily basis if you know nothing about form, handicap marks etc…. inplay market is always the way to go on the favourites, especially if you know how they get riden, but you have to be quick and know what your doing to hit them at the right time to get the bet on in time.
Milesey
lens and brugge to be winning at ht both up £43.05 from £10 last night wi a fiver on a dud bundesliga 2 game, sandhausen, to be over 1.5 1st half gls @3.0. thought it was shaktar game but that was the game above. 4 £10 singles for tomorrow now :)
2dayb been great mainly due to 2 winners from the man kirby and nice double taylor drow thornton win been great day
hahahaha didn’t see your tip anywhere for a Taylor draw ? always a good one after the game to be on ;) ;)
Milesey
Ok so your big tip for 1plus2 to put in his bet is ”lay milan” ill leave him to decide then only pointing out the obvious for him to consider,you say united rested players so is that why they lost then did they?oh no they still won anyway,so i wouldnt rely on milan not winning if they rested 1 or 2.Surely you can give him a better tip than that,lets be honest :)
As i said ” LAY AC MILAN ” Lazio have not beaten them in Serie A for 6 games, and Lazio will be happy to leave here with the draw and still ahead of AC Milan in the league table, take the tip or not, it’s a tip, no one is forcing anything upon anyone, but if my memories serves me right think i came up with 4 last week, Lay Peterborough, when everyone said they would win.
Milesey
Back Hull to win at 1.70
Back Brighton to win at 1.65
Back Liverpool @ 1.75 (3/4)
Lay AC Milan to beat Lazio @ 1.7
Lay Real Sociedad to beat Real Betis @ 1.88
Milesey
Correcto Mundo………..but i won’t mention Middlesborough if you don’t ;-)
middles who ? ha ha ha, that was one of Mr F’s tips weren’t it ? along with BARRRRNSLEY ;)
Milesey
Unfortunately not m8 we were unlucky as Midds came up short but apart from that everything went swimmingly.
So u have a point to prove this week ;-)
well give me tomorrow then to dig up a couple, give others the chance to get their selections in, and then tomorrow night you can choose what your going to take, just not at 1.30am this time ;) ;)
Milesey
Aye plenty of time now for other peeps to have a go so lets see what occurs, all was not lost tho as i bet Millwall to win and the draw so some good came out of it ;-)
Just for the record i prefer 1 of the games (depending on the previous results of course) to be a later game or the day after just in case like last week we were waiting on 1 so i could bet accordingly ie other team to win or draw.
Milesey, Boro weren’t mine, I hardly ever back.
Sean, a tip is a tip, it’s not a guarantee. Let’s see how Milan do before you criticise Milesey. And if he’s right I’m sure he’ll give it to you with both barrells. I sometimes disagree with tips put up here but I never slaughter anyone for taking an opinion. Personally, I’d like to see starting teams before I laid Milan.
Mrfixit all i did was point out stats and form and as usual milesey becomes abusive,where have i ”slaughtered” him as you have said? who is being abusive?If you read my first post i even said ”sorry”in it as i didnt want an argument it was just an opinion on te tip, anyway as as you said he will ”give it to me both barrels” if it comes up,everytime anyone questions a tip or dares to oppose anything he says he is the one that becomes nasty and aggressive and from what ive seen with your consent too,like i said before hes a decent horse tipster,good knowledge of the betting market but hes only human,ive seen what i think may be a mistake,migt be proved wrong but i pointed it out so EVERYONE who is willing to take his tip knows the stats,as usual ive been treated in an abusive way for having an opinion, maybe you should remove the option for all who use the site to post an opinion as it seems we arent allowed to have one.
Sean, you’re going a bit overboard. No one accused you of being abusive but I’m trying to stop a major argument because we’ve had too many. All I said was let’s see what happens. You’ve have slaughtered him and all that means is you’ve dug him up over his prediction. No one’s asking you to agree with anyone but he will give it to you both barrels if he’s right. He won’t miss you.
Milesey, Sean, let’s leave it there. We’ll hear from one of you after the games – depending on how it goes.
It doesn’t matter how it goes, i didn’t join in the other night and slate him when others did over his tip on Barcelona to beat Real, i ignored him, and couldn’t give two sh*ts about this bloke to be honest, but he always feels the need to comment on my posts just like he did as big joke and other aliases he has used on this site, i’m happy just to ignore him.
Milesey
Milesesy, thanks. It’s the best way and at the end of the day let your tip do the talking.
well what happened the otherday , was this idiot again kicking things off with Muzza, stupid comments he likes to make, but can’t hide behind fake aliases anymore ;)
Milesey
Milesey u at it again :-)
And you’ll hear me if whatever one i g for lets me down lol ;-)
If im right i wont be on to ram it down anyones throat,ive never done that before,then again im usually wrong in my ”cert of the days” ;)..milan game is hard to call all i was pointing out is there may be better options for his bet,its a dangerous game and shouldnt be given as a ”tip”..id avoid it.
Sean, no worries but at the end of the day everyone can put up tips. But as long as you remember they’re tips and not guaranteed winners.
Got on the double of Brugge and PAOK spot on Mr F, nice to have a bit of luck (especially as my pay didn’t go in in time to go for my treble on the NBA last night that would have come in for me too).
And thanks David for the Sporting Cristal tip, wouldn’t have touched it but read your tip and they’re 2-0 just now
Weordie, it looked a nailed-on double. Sometimes it pays to play safe although as I said earlier I did the double and also a treble by adding Lens who I had some doubt about but they look OK now.
Cheers for the info on Tigre David!
Looking good at the moment! :)
Yeah, wish I’d had the guts to go a treble but really needed a win and got it so I’ll be happy with that for tonight and take your watford advice tomorrow
Nice wee 6/4 doube tonight Paul..PAOK n Brugge…that’ll do nicely…cheers :-) Good profitable day with Mr Milesey horses thrown it…Kabbaas…widda been reeeeeally well in the Trixie if he hadna swallowed a mouthful of sand in the final furlong :-) but was well in on the NAPS of Thunderstorm and Jupiter Rex..did them in a few extra doubles after Kabbaas’s misfortune
Think it was the Jockey who got a mouthfull, from the owners after the race, after tickling the horse and not driving it and smashing its a*se like he should have been ;)
Milesey
Aye i watched it earlier and it was a shocking run by the jockey
Guido, the double isn’t for everyone at that price but a win’s a win as Milesey would say.
Paul, I understand. Personally I’d take a 6/4 winner every day of the week…
Milesey when you say off a mark of 69 or 110 etc…what does that “equate” too…I understand the handicapping weight etc…what eg would Zarkandar be rated?,,is this timeform ratings?
Nothing to do with timeform at all, all horses are rated by the BHA.
The BHA has a team of twelve Handicappers whose job is to study and interpret the form. They publish a list of ratings every week based on performances on the racecourse: the higher the rating, the better the horse. If your horse is rated 120 and mine is rated 110 then we believe that a difference of ten pounds in the weights that they carry would give each of them a fair chance.
in most cases a horse will have run on three occasions before being allocated a handicap rating. When handicapping a horse for the first time, it is necessary for there to be a clear correlation between the horse’s various performance figures and the handicap rating. Ideally from a handicapping perspective, the three qualifying runs would all be to a similar level, allowing a degree of confidence that the initial handicap rating is accurate. If a horse returns performance figures of 60, 60 and 60, the Handicapper would almost certainly award an initial handicap rating of 60. The difficulty arises in three very different performance ratings, particularly in the case of a good run followed by two moderate performances. Generally the Handicapper will err on the side of caution with a handicap rating, giving emphasis to the best performance figure as long as that race looks solid. However, if the horse disappoints in its initial handicap, then a degree of leniency is likely to be shown. This would bring in a sharper than usual drop as long as sufficient evidence is available and conditions were similar to those when the horse achieved its highest performance figure.
(iii) Lowering existing handicap ratings
A horse will have its handicap rating lowered when the Handicapper believes that its current rating is no longer a fair reflection of its ability and therefore does not give it a fair chance of competing successfully.
This may be evidenced when a horse’s performance rating is below its handicap rating although the Handicappers do not normally lower ratings after one such performance on the basis that to assume the horse has deteriorated on the evidence of one disappointing run may be too quick a reaction.
However, if a horse continues to return low performance figures (relative to its handicap rating), the Handicapper will usually lower the horse’s handicap rating.
The extent of the drop will depend on the profile of the horse. If it is a successful and consistent horse, the Handicapper may be conservative in dropping the horse until convinced that the horse is on the downgrade. On the other hand, if the horse is a less successful animal with only occasional better performances, the Handicapper may decide to drop its handicap rating more quickly.
Handicapping – if it is to achieve its aim of producing competitive races where horses have been allocated weights to equalise their chance of winning, and therefore are attractive for people to run their horses in and for people to bet on – cannot, by definition, be an exact science. Handicap ratings cannot be compiled solely based on what a horse had actually achieved, but, to some degree, must be based on what the Handicapper believed the horse might have achieved if, for example, it had not fallen at the last fence or had not suffered interference, or had been ridden out to the line when winning easily.
It is hard to argue that it is unfair to put up the rating of a horse that falls at the last fence when clear, for example, because if it were to meet the same horses again on the same terms, most people would judge it to be favoured by the revised weights thus conflicting with the overarching principles followed by the Handicappers.
Given the Handicappers’ principal aim is to give horses an equal chance in future races, they have to apply their judgement when allocating handicap ratings and not simply confine their ratings to what the horse actually achieved. The case of a last fence faller having its rating raised by the Handicapper may be considered to be ‘unfortunate’ for the associated connections rather than ‘unfair’, and handicap ratings should always be aiming to make future races as competitive as possible.
ZARKANDER is on a mark off 167 i think.
Milesey
Cheers Milesey. A horse like Thuderstorm today…looks like hes got a bit “spare” to offer. do hcprs take in visual aid or merely official result..1/2 length win etc? if like u say a last fence faller 30 lengths clear gets hammered by hcpr..do u have a right of appeal?
Yes there is a right to appeal, everything is taken into account etc… if the horse bolts up and wins by 20 lengths then they will handicap it to try and slow it down abit, but if the horse is good enough it will defy it and still come out and win. THUNDERSTORM hasn’t really had a big length win, AP has just done enough on it, so the handicappers can’t hammer it.
Milesey
We’ll stick with Thunderstorm for now then :-) Milesy yall be impressed (if irt wins!)..LAYED Sao Paolo tonight at 1.15 on Betfair….probably win 5-0 but?….can lose a tenner if I make £60 odd
Anyway best of luck with your bet 1plus2,very close the other week with just the 1 letting you down middlesboro i think it was,id have gone with cliftonville myself as id suggested,pity they dont accept irish lg games on multiples in betfair though as they come up regularly.
WHAT ? you can do any multiple you like with Betfair.
Milesey
Well i am open to other picks that betfair have on there multiples coupon so feel free to have a look and fire 2 or 3 up so i can look at em and give me a guid laff j/k seriously any teams will be scrutinised and looked at so choose wisely if anyone is picking a team for me ;-0
F me…Tried to put a bet in play on Libertad to win with WH a few mins ago…thing was taking bloody ages to confirm/process..belted the returna a few times (to help speed it up ya know) exited/came oot went back in and in the meantime Libertad scored to go 1-0 up…price I wanted of 17/20 I thot was gone…amazingly it accepted it!!!…FFS..a bookie doing a favour online!!?? is that some kinda first there Paul/a record (Libertad now 1/4) all I need is them to win now….flabbersated!!! :-)
Guido, sometimes you get lucky. I know people who have been watching games, seeing a goal, noticed markets haven’t been suspended and then get a bet on next goal. Now and again bookies get caught out inrunning.
I use betfair milesy and under the MULTIPLES tab there is no link to n.ireland,lower scottish lg football and i dont think you can do multiples on asian handicaps or both teams to score,do you have to phone in these bets?there are no options on the site for it,one of the things i dislike about it.You can only do them on SINGLES on the site,not very user friendly.
Yes you can ? don’t you know how to use it ?
on your betslip you have :
SINGLES / MULTIPLES / OPEN BETS
CLICK on the multiples tab, then choose whatever you like to place as a multiple…… simple as.
Milesey
Milesey the above options ive mentioned are not available via the betfair website,those options do not appear on the list for MULTIPLES and yes i do know how to place a bet. Dont want an argument about it,those betting options are not available on the site apart from singles.Tried it before.
Well they are available to me when i log into my betfair account, and never known it to be a problem for anyone else when placing multiples. I have full markets for multiple bets, back and lays.
Milesey
Gonna LAY Sao Paulo at 1/9…why not!!
If Libertad win Im gonna personally write to Hills to setle the bet at 1/4…its only right n proper..honesty the best policy :-))
not available to me can anyone else get them up? post a link please because ive wanted to place these bets for a long time
I can’t post a link from my betfair account can i, for you would have to log into your account, and maybe you don’t get the same options as i get, i only pay a 1% commission charge aswell.
Milesey
Those options must only be available to connections within betfair,they arent available to the ordinary punter,like i said it should be made available on betfair to make it more user friendly,lmao at lees tip that will crash the market.
I’ll have a word in the morning and see what i can find out, may have to ring them through then, i placed a multiple in coral the otherday that they had to ring through, was a double, horse racing and football, and a large stake, and they had to get a reference number before they could put it through.
Milesey
Sao Paolo worth a punt on the handicaps at -2 against The Strongest anyone?
Mr H, Danny might answer that one. Right, off to walk the dog then get stuck into the Record column to get a head start.
Tell the truth Mr F you are away to read up on some decent tips for my Quest ;-) choose wisely mind lol
a cant advise on the Copa Libertadores a dont follow it both are in good form in there leagues quick look at standings showed 1st game sao paulo lost and strongest won ave no idea ask Guido he usualy tips the late night football and should have a better idea