A BUSY week of European football is over and it's been three days of hits and misses. Bas Dost for once drew a blank and my Top Treble was looking good until I added a darts tip.
An 11-4 treble on Dynamo Kiev, Inter Milan and Phil Taylor was beaten as The Power lost the last leg to Peter Wright to draw 6-6.
Europa League results weren't too bad and well done to everyone who put up winners – with team news again proving vital.
I've posted a seperate preview of tonight's Scottish Championship match between Falkirk and Rangers and elsewhere we have Bayern Munich v Cologne in the Bundesliga and Cordoba travel to Espanyol in La Liga.
Marseille tackle Caen in Ligue One and as usual people will look at goals in the French lower leagues and in particular Dutch Jupiler League.
I'm going for a big Super Single and it's a variation of tips put up by raaljaca last night. He fancies both to score and over 2.5 goals at Marseille v Caen – and I can't disagree with him.
Look at the stats – Marseille have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 home matches and there have been over 2.5 goals scored in six of Caen’s last seven away matches.
Marseille should win but are short at 4-9 with William Hill and as their defence can be dodgy loads of goals are anticipated. I'm taking a chance on both to score – but in the first 45 minutes as opposed to 90 minutes. Over 1.5 first-half match goals is 13-10 at Coral and just to score at any time Caen are 6-10 with William Hill.
Raaljaca's is the safer option obviously – so take your pick – but as we approach the end of the month I'm going for a bit of glory.
My Saturday selections have been picked out so just enough time to put a top treble before heading to the office. Bayern have netted 14 in their last two Bundesliga matches and should at least cover the -1 handicap at home to Cologne.
Add to that btt at Falkirk and Marseille in 90 minutes. I've not had tim to study goals bets for the Dutch and French lower leagues so may do a small-stakes random bet for a bit of fun.
1.4pts Super Single
Marseille v Caen btts first half (7.30pm)
(15-4, William Hill)
1pt Top Treble
Marseille v Caen btts
Bayern -2 AH (7.30pm)
Falkirk v Rangers btts (7.30pm)
(4-1, bet365)
Super Single February record:
23 bets (10 winners, 11 losers, 2 void)
Profit: 0.4pts
Remember to check out the guys from We Love Betting for more tips and video chat.
Over 1.5 team goals:
Galatasaray
Standard Liege
Double @ 2.02 with william hill
SPORT RECIFE
BOACA JUNIORS -1
INTERNACIONAL V UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE BTTS
2.57/1 William Hill
Well Mr F I said I was happy with the Spurs line up other than Soldado and that concern proved to be so. Even then so Wolfsburg couldn’t get one so it didn’t matter. Unlucky on that Bas Dost!
Spurs
Villarreal
Wolfsburg
All to score @ EVS @ WillHill **LOSE**
Adding Celtic for a 21/10 fourfold **LOSE**
Hi all.
Terrible night last night after a good one the night before, apologies anyway. Oh well I go on-
Aguilas Doradas v Deportivo Cali (Columbia Primera A 11.00pm)
BTTS
Independiente v Universidad de Chile (Copa Libertadores 11.15pm)
Over 1.5 mg
DOUBLE 1.11/1
Singles-
Independiente match- over 10 CORNERS 11/10
Aguilas match- BTTS & over 2.5 mg 13/10.
Will be around tonight so will look more at the later games.
MARSEILLE V CAEN –
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 9/10 (BETWAY)
MARSEILLE V CAEN –
TOTAL CAEN GOALS
OVER 0.5 3/4 (BETWAY)
wee late nite double to take the edge off 10% staked
boca juniors o1.5tgs, internacional o1.5tgs 11/8
Everton are 6/1 to beat Arsenal on Sunday…..could be an absolute steal. If they start well and play tactically soundly, as I’m sure they will, it’s a 50/50 as to whether Arsenal capitulate or not. Everton -1 is 17/1 with Paddy Power, and that is so worth a gamble for anyone who’s not a Gooner. I’m even considering it myself!
Ad, Everton have won 0 drawn 3 and lost 4 of the last 7 away to Arsenal.
Yep. And their league form is rubbish and they started a near full strength side tonight in Europa league. But they’ll smell blood in the water, and if we have a bad first 10/20 mins and Everton start fast I can see things unravelling fast. Clearly I’m praying that doesn’t happen, but I just think there’s a good chance we will struggle to re-focus after Wednesday, and we never seem to learn from one game to the next. The tension and unrest from the crowd will be palpable if we go behind. It could be a difficult day for us.
Nice spot AD! I haven’t looked but Everton would be at least Evens in the Double Chance market? Not bad tbh…
Fridays is a time for goals, specifically for Netherlands Eerste Divisie or as I call it, ‘The goals galore league’
No write up’s with these as they’re pointless as singles, but should make a good cash doubler as a treble.
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven Over 1.5 match goals
NEC vs Roda JC Over 1.5 match goals
Helmond Sport vs RKC Waalwijk over 2.5 goals
Just over 1/1 @Skybet 7pm
Satoshi; good call with the O 1.5 TG’s last night. Was on the double at just over 3’s. Nice one.
Poland 7.30pm
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan
Both Teams to Score
20/21 Betfair
Can anyone recommend a football team comparison site that covers form, H2H etc. I’ve found a few but I don’t feel they’re user friendly…
http://www.soccerstats.com
Futbol24
Jimbo, try soccerway.
Tours v Nancy:
Tours have conceded two or more goals in six of their last seven home games. Nancy have hit a bit of form, winning their last three games, scoring two, two and six. Nancy have scored two or more against Tours, in each of their last three recent meetings.
Nancy over 1.5 TG’s 6/4 @ Corals
Looks a good shout there Alan, coupled with Tours’ worst home defensive record in the league and Nancy’s 2nd best attacking away record.
Really don’t fancy Everton. I think well play them off the park and get ourselves back on track. As badly as we played last night we had loads of chances and it again came down to being tactically naive. Everton doing well in Europe as they’re still an unknown entity to many there and their style suits Europe but think most in the league have them figured out now. Fancy us to score 2+
oops, wrong thread!
Boca to score 2 more goals in this better than 6/4 should come in
It’s possible but I think it’s more the nervous gooner inside you talking based more on our tradition of collapsing at this stage most years rather than form. to be honest I’m not gonna have a bet on it as my judgement is clouded but I’m optimistic we’ll get back on track. Really hoping theo starts too and gets firing again
I know what you mean about the home atmosphere though, if we look shaky and nervous at the start it will quickly spread around the crowd and it won’t be a comfortable place
Nice Start Shaun,
Had the double also took btts in colombia as single 20mins in
Thanks
ajacio gfca under 2.5 mg
vesjaeland under 2.5 mg
kaiserslautern under 2.5 mg
gl
wee late nite double to take the edge off 10% staked
boca juniors o1.5tgs, internacional o1.5tgs 11/8 WON
Thanks jazza. Have to say I was slightly worried at h/t in the Columbia match! Haha.
santa fe, Zamora o2.5mgs btts double 6/1 5%
I’m less confident on these but will have a go with smaller stakes-
Santa Fe v Colo Colo (Copa Libertadores 01.30am)
Over 8 corners
Zamora v Palestino (Copa Libertadores 01.30am)
Over 1.5 mg
DOUBLE 0.96/1
Small singles-
Zamora match- over 2.5 mg 23/20
Santa Fe match- Santa Fe RT5 corners in-play (if a decent enough price.)
Aaa the RT5 is too short for me so I’ve gone for the longer shot RT7 Santa Fe at 6/4.
Word of warning I’m not Alves when it comes to corner betting! Ha,
Both teams to score in the second half of the dc united game, 12/5 worth a couple of shillings imo!
Gonna try Santa Fe over 2.5 and over 1.5 match goals in the Zamora game @ EVS @ 365.
Having a small go on over 1.5 A.Medellin goals, 1-0 up with 20 to play & seem to be dominating the game stats wise- 11/8.
Theres the A.Medellin over 1.5.
Dc united forever lol
Great shout Boco!
Shaun you dope! I thought, Medellin aren’t playing!? You meant National didn’t you haha, damn! Well done mate!
I will be surprised to see a goal in either Libertadores game now.
Yeah thanks for that mate! I posted at HT haha
Haha Jordan, I thought their full name is Atletico Nacional Medellin or am I just going crazy?!
Sorry mate me & my short hand again! :D
Na they are based in Medellin mate but they’re called Atletico National but there is a team called Independiente Medellin so I’ll let you off.
Gonna try Santa Fe over 2.5 and over 1.5 match goals in the Zamora game @ EVS @ 365 **LOSE** sante Fe got the goal but 11 attempts in the second half and nae goals!
Glad to help jordan, anything catch your eye for goals?
I see I knew they had something to do with Medellin!
You watch I will get lynched by an Independiente mob now! Haha.
Nothing till 8:40 now mate. Shaun might get a couple of A-League bets up if you’re lucky ;)
Sorry folks nothing doing with the last 2 Libertadores matches, did say I was less confident if that’s any consolation,
Was watching the Sharapova tennis match during the 2nd half as the football was that boring! Ha.
Anyways nothing until the A-League now so hopefully they will bring us a few goals.
Melbourne City vs Adelaide United
Anytime scorer: Bruce Djite once the market comes up inplay and will also be on him for fgs.,,,
Hope Shaun can back me up on this..
Lovely and quiet on here at this time, better class of tipsters. Coffee anyone? Bit toast Shaun mate?
Milk one sugar Raal that would be lovely. Don’t suppose that coo is still in the garden? Haha
Sadly Jordan she is now known as steak mate!!
orbz- was just looking at scorers mate,
I wanted to back Mooy for Melbourne as I think they will end their goal drought sooner or later & he’s my favourite Melbourne player. They have a lot of injuries though & goals are generally shared more around their team.
Adelaide can go top for a short time with a win, have a good record v Melbourne & are the leagues 2nd highest scorers, the only thing that would put me off is their recent away record,
I’m going to side more with Adelaide anyway for the reasons given & will join you with Djite! You can get 6/1 FG & 11/5 anytime on 365, also added Carrusca anytime scorer 10/3 due to 3 in his last 4 v Melbourne,
GL mate. :)
Haha well I never! Nice to hear from you raal mate. Don’t usually see you knocking around at this time of the morning.
Toast? Yes please mate. I’m partial to a spot of marmalade now and again too if any to hand. Ha.
:)
Just an early bird again these days shaun mate to enable me to get the worm….
Break time at work. ..no late night bets for me. ..
From last night:
Over 1.5 inter tg
***lost***
Over 1.5 accumulator
***lost***
Athletic Bilbao v Torino
BTTS
***won***
Ill get back to my desk now and pick some winners for Saturday :)
I’ll have a steak with my coffee then ta Raal :D I’ll be on your bets today but I think that’s it for Friday fitbaw!
Only the Marseille game for me mate as these other lower leagues are just to hard to predict and should be avoided. Happy to wait for the right game to come along as patience is a virtue!
Trying to do the same mate but I can’t help myself during these late nights. No value in the Bayern game which is the only other one I looked at.
Gooooooooood morningggg all :-) Let the weekend begin !!!
Saturday Bet
Over 1.5 match goals Treble
Manchester United/Sunderland
Bournemouth/Blackburn
Fulham/Derby
@ 9/10 @ WillHill
Adding Stoke and Newcastle to score @ just under 19/10 (five fold) 25% Stake
Melbourne city v adelaide
4 out of last 6 matches have seen over 2.5 goals and 3 out of last 6 have seen over 3.5.
my thinking is we will see some goals tonight. Melbourne have been in low scoring form but couple of nil nil draws against top teams. They have been inconsistent but can score when firing.
I probably wont bet on all 3 but will choose my main bet and one of the small bets.
tips are O2.5 @ $ 1.80 (main bet)
Alternative goal line 2.5, 3.0 @ $ 2.00(small bet)
Adelaide AH 0.0,-0.5 @ $ 2.20 (small bet)
Good luck all if you follow
Been away from here all week due to technical difficulties ie..daughter destroying phone. Grounded! Haha hopefully can get back into swing of things today looks lime I’ve missed some highs and lows this week looking at results.
Just throwing a couple of potential goal fest in the mix for now.
Jihavla u19s v program u19s. Both started 2015 with over 3.5 goals in their games. Can see that happening today and will be on the goal lines, split stake for me.
Wolfsburg women v Duisburg women. Wolfsburg have beat these 6-0 and 3-0 in most recent head to head’s. Wolfsburg recently seen off leverkusen women 5-0 so Duisburg shouldn’t be a problem. Can see 5+ in this so again taking goal lines.
Goals Double today-
Melbourne v Adelaide BTTS &
Caen Over 0.5tg
7/4 @ladbrokes
CC DOUBLE
KIEV
ZENIT DNB
15/8
GL LADS
“””WON”””
Morning lads…..
Centrecircle – Morning matey ok ?
Great shout Raal! I’m greedy so I’m on:
Marseille v Caen
BTTS and over 2.5 goals
Bet 365
3 pts
Dutch Treble:
All teams over 1.5 TG
Helmond
Nijmegen
Jong Ajax (I know, I remember the 0-0 last week)
2 pts
Bet 365
Just under 3/1
Good Luck one and all, I’m off to bed!
Good luck craigyboy and morning harpreet and cc
Good morning champs! Maybe somebody got overpriced outsider for today? Recently managed to pick Monaco -1 and Ajax -1 looking for another one. Thanks
Caen Double Chance 17/10?
Espanyol 0.5tg
Falkirk/Rangers over 1.5 goals
Standard Leige over 1.5 team goals
Treble 1.04/1
Good luck with your bets today
#ingoalswetrust
MrF when you post doubles and trebles do you also bet on the singles of those as well? If so how many points?
Marty2k365, only if the odds are good enough but not usually on low-priced doubles and trebles – can end up losing if you get one wrong.
Raaljaca Caen looks hot indeed but i got strange feeling than Bayern might slip today, so now its the hardest part to decide between Caen and Koln. I dont know but Koln looks overpriced
Raaljaca Caen looks hot indeed but i got strange feeling than Bayern might slip today, so now its the hardest part to decide between Caen and Koln. I dont know but Koln looks overpriced
Bruce Djite anytime @2/1
Koln 8.5 double chance at bet365, seems to me crazy
Melbourne draw for me, 1 point at 3.4.
Djite anytime
Btts
Over 2.5 goals
All singles
NK Istra 196 vs. NK locomotive Croatia League 1
Tip: Both team to score sure banker
Caen double chance 1 point at 2.8
Gonna have a few £ on this
Fk Susa vs Fk Baku
Btts 1st half @7/2
thanks Shaun
Raal-make that 2 poached eggs, smoked salmon (110 grams), toast, freshly squeezed oj and some strong black coffee :P I see you beat me to the Marseille game, I was going to post last night alas there was no time. Caen score and concede at a ridiculous rate especially when teams attack them as opposed to sit back. The price is on the drift for some peculiar reason and you can get 10/11 which is slightly better. I will hold off to see if the price drifts any further before I post as I might vary the bet a little.
santa fe, Zamora o2.5mgs btts double 6/1 5% LOST
Mornings lads. im on
raanana
Otzma fc
hapoel ironi
All over 2.5 match goals
good luck if you follow
Jumped on susa vs baku capone but just a little to late.
went for over 2.5 goals at 1/2.
juat after the 1st goal.
I’m going for a French Friday fiver five fold:
Dijon
Troyes
Nancy
Red Star 93
Boulogne
Nets £411
Gonna have a few £ on this
Fk Susa vs Fk Baku
Btts 1st half @7/2
Lost, wasters, they’ll score on the 46th min
Galatassaray myth over 2 th goal line about evens
sorry new phone a nightmare. Gala yth over 2fh goal line
Djite *pending
Btts *win
Over 2.5 goals *win
Melbourne city v adelaide
daily double
nimes
troyes
6/1 ladbrokes
good luck
Btts 2nd hald is 10/11, decent price adelaide should score another here
Istra 1961 (9/10) v Lok. Zagreb (3/10) – 17.00
Lok. Zagreb to score Over 1.5 Team goals @ 11/10
There’s a lot of talk about this game going over 2.5 goals and the head to head stats certainly back it up. However I prefer to back Over 1.5 team goals at an odds against price.
Zagreb have scored 2 or more goals against Istra in all of the last 6 head to heads.
Raaljaca that game looks very similar to Barcelonas game against Malaga. And everyone nows what Malaga done :) Grands fells and they fells often. I just wonder how bookies can be so sure
FALKIRK V RANGERS
RANGERS TO WIN AND BTTS
RETURNS 13/5
Inglewood United SC vs Perth SC K.O 10.30am
Looking at Perth’s stats for last season they lost to Perth 1-4 at home and goals look on the cards here
Perth finished 2nd with a +39 goal difference to Inglewood’s -12 who finished 9th
wait till in play
Galatassaray myth over 2 cu goal line won 3-0@ ht
All, just checking in.
Turns out , firstly wifi is sparse in Venice and now I’ve found it in a restaurant it appears I can’t access my WillHill account only willhill Italy which my user name doesn’t work.
Anyone know if there’s a work around?
If not , I’ll be back to normal on Saturday with my current challenge still standing at 9 from 9 rolling Acca.
Only option is to go through a Proxy Server Simon W.
morning guys
Your thoughts plz
Bayern to win both half’s 3/4 on skybet
CC DOUBLE AJACCIO GFCA DNB
BOURG PERONAS DNB
GL LADS
MINT sounds good bayern back on form
Excellent value on goals tonight between Espanyol v Cordoba. Over 1.5 mgs is 4/9 with Betfair. 6 out of 7 games have gone over 1.5 for Espanyol at home to bottom half teams this season. 5 out of 6 have gone over 1.5 for Cordoba against a top half side away from home. Over 2.5 goals is also worth a small punt at 13/10 with Betfair, bookies have priced it wrong I think when 58% of Espanyols games at home have gone over 2.5, also Cordoba have seen over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 so the odds are good here.
drb tadjenant to score 2nd half no 8/11 inplay.
first half shots on goal NIL…
Both of these teams tend to be in amongst the goals and their opposition also concede more often that not. Caen have scored 39 and conceded 38 in the league thus far whereas Falkirk are 38-34. I will go for the following double:
Falkirk to score
Caen to score
2.38/1 Ladbrokes
Espanyol vs Cordoba
BTTS-NO and Under 2.5 goals @ evens
Picked out 8 teams for over1.5 goals last night then changed my mind and only picked the inter game to add to my 3 main W/D/W tips which of course all won so to pick the only one of the 8 not to go over sums up just how bad i am at gambling.
Then i went for MVG/Taylor at the darts after seeing MVG had won 39/40 matches, we all know what happened there,
For my final act I went huge on Taylor to win and of course it ended a draw.
I used to pick a coupon on a saturday using my gut between 4/7 teams and put at most £20 on it and i would win around half the time, it was a good little earner and fun at the same time.
For the past 2 years ive started betting daily on football mainly but tennis,darts,basketball and a few others and ive put as much time as possible into researching bets but i just cannot win.
I know MrF/Greg/Raal/Chief/Alves/Ad/Attilla/Jordan and im sure others make profit but it seems im one the bookies are destined to love forever.
I tried to follow each of the above as much as possible but would always back the losers, they could have 9/10 winners but id always catch the loser.
Im not a rich man by any means but the money i have lost luckily hasnt affected my life but last night was the final straw.
I had a quick look at Sats football then picked 5 teams and put £10 on it, I then withdrew every penny from 5 accounts and will be returning to how i used to bet, one a week for fun on a saturday.
I wish everyone on here the very best of luck and hope everyone bets within their means, this betting site is a wonderful place with a lot of great guys and I hope you all take back my money from the bookies 100 times over.
Have to go now, Ive got Tony on the phone asking where his meatball sub is and a Russian hardman to track down in the woods :}
realwalker, everyone has been there mate but look at it this way, to get so close means your judgement is very decent so simply reduce the selection as quality outweighs quantity. Most importantly though is this ;
For my final act I went huge on Taylor to win and of course it ended a draw.
Never ever go huge as it tips the balance in the bookies favour as you are chasing losses and adding pressure to yourself which means you will not bet with a clear head.
Realwalker….discipline mate i know its hard
INPLAY
AS KHAROUB V USM BLIDA 2-2 score
Aaway side to score over 2.5 goals @ 9/4 77 mins…all over them at the mo, has a decent chance :)
Fc zorya res over 3.5 match goals
Hap herzilya win currently1-0 up
Double at evens
AWWW….I CAN FEEL YOU REALWALKER
Mr F just seen your super single, good luck. I was going to look at the goal scoring trends i.e. when they tend to score/concede to see if I could nail a BTTS in either half but did not do the research for it.
INPLAY
AS KHAROUB V USM BLIDA 2-2 score
Aaway side to score over 2.5 goals @ 9/4 77 mins…all over them at the mo, has a decent chance……WINS @ 9/4 87TH MIN ;)
Howdy
a wee team goals treble foe me tonight
Falkirk(+0.5gls), Bayern(+1.5gls), Standard(+1.5gls) @ 2.352 with 365
Good luck
Odd bj v valeranga btts in first half 7/4, 23 mins gone.
Haarpet ?
Need your pick
My pick trapani over 2.5
Mr f pick both to score
Craigboy pick ?
Just waiting on 1 goal in the ironi game for a treble….cumon
And then they score.
treble win
well done to those who followed
REALWALKER – i’ve been there before mate, many times. Betting is so up and down. Over the past 3 years im definitely not in profit, even though i’ve had some good winning runs.
Going back to your one saturday bet a week is a good call mate, and I hope it works out for you. All the best mate.
I am considering doing no clean sheets for the opponents of the following teams. Will each of these teams certainly score at least one goal? The teams are Bayern Munich, Marseille, Galatasary, Standard Liege, Mattersburg, HNK Gorica, Levski SOfia, Sparta Rotterdam, VVV Venlo, FC Oss and Jong Ajax. Your opinions are highly valuable.
Hey folks anybody recommend any good betting sites for inplay soccer betting apart from bet365, skybet and paddypower?
Zorya reserves over 3.5 match goals
Hapoel herzilya win 1-0 @ht
Halftime double at evens
Won
RAAL
really appreciate your words of wisdom mate, do you say this with first hand experience becasue you never see you tipping 5 or 10 bets daily like most on here you seem to pick a hand selected and just leave it at that. Don’t get tempted to just go made…..or have you been to that rock bottom and have taught yourself self control?
Liam I became quite successful in betting simply because I ran out of mistakes to make mate. I lost a fortune but luckily stumbled into goals betting and have had over 5 years of constant winning after more than 30 years of losing.
raaljaca, as you know I like to do both – with my main philosophy being only bet what you can afford to lose. For a while I’ve been thinking about this and in March I’m going to do a Super Single versus a goals Super Single. Some days I might simply use your goals pick but it will be interesting to see how they compare.
That will be excellent Mr F as both can provide excellent opportunities and can also be combined if need be.
French League 2 7pm
CHÂTEAUROUX VS. NÎMES
Chateauroux are the 2nd worst form team in the league over the last 6 games. They haven’t won a league game since 24th October. They have scored just one goal in their last 4 games and are all but down.
Nimes are in mid-table but top the form table with 5 wins in 7 games.
Strangely, Chateauroux are 6/4 favourites to win, Nimes are 7/4, draw is 9/5.
–
Play it safe with NIMES Draw No Bet at EVENS.
All 10 Juliper league games over 1.5 goals is 3.59/1 on bet365.
Silly bet really, relying on ten games to come in but it took ages to do online so I’m going to put a lil bit on it regardless lol.
My main bets today are:
Raals tips, Mr. F’s SS and CC’s double.
How inventive of me..
Thanks for the tips guys and good luck tonight.
Andy please see rule no 4 by your own admission its a “silly bet” read rule no 2 good luck
Mint 3/4 for bayern to win both halfs seems like at first glance bayern s recent home record against cologne isn’t good though think they’ve only won 1 out ov last 6 me thinks n got a big champions league cumin up just a word ov caution sayin that bayern shud win on current form n wud take a brave man to back against the win tonight good luck mate
My BTTS Treble
Marseille v Caen
Cracovia v Lech
Istra v Lok Zagreb
Pays 6.26 ( William Hills)
Boys as u know gambling for some can lead you down the wrong path, but if u follow these simple rules (lets call them dave’s 6 golden rules) you should see an upturn in your bank balance.
1. never chase loses
2. be disciplined (not everyday is a betting day)
3. research and study (don’t take a tip on face value)
4. avoid multiple acca’s (u r a bookies dream)
5. never bet beyond your means
6. Never ever bet when drunk, or under the influence
Follow my golden rules and u will be fine, I know rule no 6 will be hard for some of you but how many times have u woken up and thought “y did I place that stupid bet” the answer is probably cos u were hammered!
Keep ur chins up boys and as I always say Onwards and upwards :D
Been following for a while so thought I would make a contribution. Recently Friday nights have been relatively kind to me so here’s what I’m on:
De Graafschap v FC Eindhoven – BTTS
FC Bourg-Peronnas v Chambly – FC Bourg Double Chance
NEC v Roda JC – Over 1.5 Goals
£10 pays £20.70
Falkirk v Rangers – BTTS
FC Oss v Fortuna Sittard – FC Oss Win
£10 pays £22.62
Bayern Munich v FC Koln – Bayern Munich Win
Standard Liege v Cercle Brugge – Standard Liege Win
Galatasaray v Kayseri Erciyesspor – Galatasaray Win
£10 pays £20
All with Skybet.
GL whatever you are on.
Wattie
Thanks for your insight,gonna wait until team news like Mr f always reiterates then hopefully have a wee punt
Cheers RAAL appericated. I see to make a nice pot “of based on what I can afford” and get stupid and lose it so much faster than I make it then for days maybe a week I couldn’t pick a winner to save myself.
DAVE, loving the golden rules there all very true
liam thank you, if I can help just one person turn their fortunes around it would be worth it.
raal is it possible to have 5 years of constant winning without your accounts being limited or banned by the bookies?
best bettor I have had accounts restricted and closed on several occasions but use a few different ones. I bet around 70% online so do have to use family members a lot.
boys as u know I didn’t put up a tip yesterday that’s because there was nowt I fancied. today I believe I can win u all a few quid as i delve in to French football and like the chances of btts in Marseille – caen game. Marseille cant keep a clean sheet 1 in 11 it is. they sent their full backs on leaving gaps out wide, don’t be surprised if they concede from a cross this evening. btts is 9-10 at betway. good luck if u follow.
tips
Marseille v caen btts yes 9-10
Good stuff dave mate and will be all over it now around 30 of us have tipped it :)
ral haha If it loses were all in the brown stuff, we can just put the blame on mr f :D
What u guys think ??
NEC – Roda
Over 2.5 !
Mint just checked a different site n they av bayern winnin 3 ov last 6 home games against cologne ? Maybe its 1 out 6 inc cup games n 3out ov 6 just based on league games either way barring last year (3-0) there’s not bin many goals between these 2! Prob b 6-3 tonight now
Mint just checked a different site n they av bayern winnin 3 ov last 6 home games against cologne ? Maybe its 1 out 6 inc cup games n 3out ov 6 just based on league games either way barring last year (3-0) there’s not bin many goals between these 2! Prob b 6-3 tonight now
Wattie bayer should slip soon. I think for koln its extreamly big price 29 to win at bet365 its like bayer starts with 3 goals advantage or what :D
After taking Europa night off, I’ve got two goals bets tonight. Marseille and Caen as already is a great btts but I haven’t got anything with it but plenty of selections around elsewhere
BET 1
JONG AJAX O2.5mgls
BALA O2.5mgls
AJACCIO U2.5mgls
BET 2
NEC O2.5
HELMOND O2.5
LE HAVRE U2.5
GL everyone
Big j don’t get me wrong on form bayern shud win but at 1/12 with past meetings n champions league around the corner and they’ve got a real healthy lead at the top of the table so wouldn’t suprise me if tonight’s game is a bit closer than the bookies expect! one I will leave alone but good luck if ur havin a dabble mate
my picks
ajacio gfca under 2.5 mg
vesjaeland under 2.5 mg
kaiserslautern under 2.5 mg
frankfurt 3.4
koln or draw 8
zilina 2.8
herenven women 2.55
zagreb 2.6
celaya or draw 2.72
level stakes 1 unit and 0.1 unit to the last 6fold
9.1 units staked
Dubai v Al thaid
0-0 at the interval. Visitors have two men sent off.
Home team should be too strong for 9men.
Dubai o1.5 goals scored 21/50
Dubai o1.5 goals scored 17/10
Big j just ad look n u can get 20/21 at Boyles (being backed as well) for cologne with a 3 goal start bayern if they turn up cud cover this easily but based on most ov thier recent fixtures seems like a bit ov value me thinks!
Jihavla yth v pribram yth
Fh goal line
Ft goal line won
3-1 final score
Dissapointed.wolfburg women doesnt seem to be available tonight but days been kind so far so may throw together an acca for a change.
Raal – Wise words as always. Hope your well
Mr fix. Will portsmouth be a ss possible ? I have to pick a team tomorrow for a syndicate bet above evs. Any ideas ?
spuddie69, Portsmouth won’t be the SS but they should win. I like Plymouth better than Portsmouth tomorrow but they’re not the Super Single either.
Anyone fancy liege -1 at 5/6 tonight? I do.
Also I see jong Ajax mentioned, I’ve backed them couple times recently, mainly as they have the highly rated zivkovic playing and scoring frequently for them. Saw they were 3/4 tonight, would need to see their opponents form first.
Always worth backing against rkc as well but think they are playing another rubbish team Helmand so might avoid that.
Greetings all, well done Mr. F, seems Marseille match is the golden geese tonight.
Btts yes
Over 2.5 match goals
Caen to score
Marseille to win
Kudos to all. Just got in
Raal/Mr F- sorry to wade in on the debate about goals as opposed WDW. My views are that you have to be able to mix it up and of course pick the right bet. Let’s face it it is only the right bet if it wins no matter what market you choose. There are opportunities on the WDW market that can pay extremely well especially when the bookies price wrongly. Remember QOS/Hibs v Rangers? I think those types of bets are worth taking on especially when you get the gut feel. We need to be able to maximise our opportunities. At the end of the day it’s up to the individual and if something works then there is no need to Mr Fix it! I made a bad call the other night with Arsenal, although I suspected they would win I didn’t have the gut feel that they definitely would and even responded to say that I was not certain. Lesson learned although not much damage done as it was small stakes and won back with the cricket.
Alex I go from experience mate and also the mathematical chance of the bet as in theory you have a 50% chance of landing your goals bet but only 33% of your win bet. I simply believe the goals bet has less chance of failure built into any prices but will not argue that some win bets are also extremely attractive, QOS tomorrow at 11/10. If someone wants to try to earn a living betting then mathematically goals provide a better opportunity but I am certain more hobby gamblers enjoy the thrill of a team win.
Ht correct score ireland u19’s
2-0 4/1.
Result and both teams to score CAEN @ 12/1 ?
Cheers DMcG for the dubai tip. put on over 0.5 as with 2 extra men thought they were bound to score one
Excelsior v seraing btts
Marseille v caen btts
Standard liege score first half
Ajax res over 2.5 match gls
Robben score any time
Acca 11.70/1
Tonights bet for me
falkirk/rangers btts
Marseille/caen btts
Good luck if you follow
Espanyol
Jong Ajax
Bourg-Peronnas?
Any thoughts?
No prob gowzzer, bit disappointed there wasn’t more goals! Ah well, always next time.
That was pathetic from dubai.
Boco1976
31 mins ago
Ht correct score ireland u19′s
2-0 4/1.
Winner hope some got a slice too!
Boco1976 great shout on the Ireland game pal,took them for 1.5tgs in the 1st half at 10/3,cheers mate and keep them coming.
Levski sofia over 7.5 i got at 6/4 probly come in a bit now currently 5-0 levski have had six shots on goal and scored five
Gluck
Troyes (away win as Ss)
Fc oss
Volendam
Patro eisden (belgium 2nd division)
Sparta rotterdam
All over 2.5 mgs
GL
Cheers belfastmark hopefully get you a few pints tonight mate.
Keeping myself good for the fight tomorrow night boco but it will indeed,cheers!
Galatasaray to win and btts 11/5 thank me later
Yarmouk v all samiyah over 2.5mg@ 1.72
Levski sofia left it late Belfastmark but got there in the end.
Levski sofia over 7.5 i got at 6/4 probly come in a bit now currently 5-0 levski have had six shots on goal and scored five
Gluck
Winner winner chicken dinner!
espanyol win 3 or 4 goals in game 3.75 my bet for tonight.
Hampy that wolfsburg womens match is showing on bet365 now mate, its currently 1-0 to wolfsburg 8 mins in.
Gone for over 2:5 goals in espanyol,galatasary,standard and Marseille game at 17/2 can definalty see this coming is as all these teams like to score but All of them conceded also had them all to win and btts at 110/1 longshot but this actually did happen in all there last games apart from marsellie who conceded in the last minute of the game good luck if your having a bet and any thoughts are welcome only here to beat one person the bookies!!!!!!
TROYES
GCR AJACCIO
STANDARD LIEGE
GALATASARAY
ESPANYOL
MATTERSBURG
VIRTON
BAYERN MUNICH
My picks for the day
CC GOALS TREBLE
HELMOND O1.5 mgls
FC OSS O1.5mgls
BAYERN. O1.5 mgls
GL LADS
Goals is the way to go in my opinion raal.
IN_PLAY:
Istra v L Zagreb
L Zagreb Over 1.5 TG
22 mins gone
1-0
2/1
Bet 365
2 pts
Boco1976
Nice call bro
Hello everyone. These are my bets for tonight:
W+BTTS
FC Oss
Den Bosch
Sparta Rotterdam
VVV Venlo
NEC Nijmegen
Jong Ajax
SIXFOLD £1 returns £570
10P LUCKY 63 £6.30 returns £342
W+BTTS
Galatasaray
Rangers
Espanyol
Standard Liege
Marseille
Bayern Munich
SIXFOLD £1 returns £1596
10p LUCKY 63 £6.30 returns £750
Total staked £14.70
Good luck with whatever you are on this evening.
Raal just out of interest if you saw say for example Hearts priced at 11/10 to win and you fancied them to win would you sooner back Hearts to win at 11/10 or Hearts to score over 1.5 TG at what is normally a similar price?
Obviously the only way one benefits you from the other is if they were to scrape a 1-0? I just find over 1.5 TG has a much stronger chance than the outright win (except in Inter’s case where they won 1-0 last night)
craigyboy, I would look at the opponents record against teams in the top half of the league, similar position to us, and also how their last 5 or 6 opponents were performing prior to the meeting as some good sides have small bad runs that can be deceiving. Basically weigh up what you can see and go with your own feeling about it. Any doubt then leave it out!!
Raal, as you know I’m a big fan of your bets and betting approach :)
I would say that it is possible to find value in both match odds and goals markets. You have 50% of landing a goal bet but at the same time you need to be correct more times than betting on MO market with a 33% probability :)
The key in my opinion is to bet on odds that represent value and as you say: not to chase losses – bet with clear head.
Finding these odds is not easy though.
No way wolfsburf women came available inplay between time i was walkin home.gutted missed my own tip
Craigyboy, that’s an interesting point you raised and I would also like Raal to reply.
I would say that it doesn’t really matter in your example. I mean, would you rather pick 3 numbers out of 6 or 12 out of 24? What really matters is how much I would pay you if you win.
If for any reason I would offer more than double of your stake in any of the examples, you should go with that.
Generally Bookies can Lose the two markets are priced very similar when you look at them except in cases such as Bournemouth who have been consistently hitting 2 goals or more and still drawing and sometimes losing games. I have never encountered a scenario where one market is massively different. The only instance I have noticed was as I say Bournemouth who were away and were priced at over evens (11/10) and over 1.5 TG was under evens (10/11). Not a massive difference. I suppose the safest bet would have been to split the stake.
My personal opinion is that I find the safest option is over 1.5 TG. Its just frustrating when as in the instance of the Inter game last night they win 1-0. If I’d have been able to I’d have put a small stake on Inter to win with ten mins left (knowing that Celtic needed to grab a goal). Unfortunately I was driving to work!
Not that my two cents matters but I for one joined this site betting on teams to win in multiple accas. After a few months of seeing the regulars bets I started to realise that goals are the way forward at prices around EVS, whether it be singles/doubles/trebles, and you’ll see from almost every selection that I rarely bet on a team to win outright. Total match goals and team goals rather than BTTS, as you aren’t relying on both teams to turn up. I think the teams to score doubles/trebles are profitable if the stats and gut tell you so. I have nothing against the WDW market I have just found turning a profit is easier with goals, and like Craigy has said about narrow 1-0 wins, usually if you’re betting on a team over 1.5 goals at around EVS, the chances are an early goal will provide you with decent cover, and I’d much rather cover to cut my profit than lose.
I realise there would have been no cover whatsoever last night if you were on 1.5 Inter goals, which is where the WDW may have an advantage. It works both ways.
To be fair in hindsight asking an Italian team to score two goals or more when they have three away goals is always a risk. I think the talk of the Celtic manager saying they’d rather go out losing 4-3 was what encouraged me to place the bet. I was probably depending on Celtic to score two in that instance.
That and the fact they scored 3 at Celtic Park Craigy. It was just unlucky on the night and one of those results. After the 3-3 you would have expected another goal fest with Celtic chasing. I certainly did.
Then again look at Napoli. Get the goal early on and then see it out. Then again I’ve backed Zagreb over 1.5 TG. The stats were jumping out for it and there 1-0 down. The unpredictablity of football. A gamblers nightmare sometimes!
That’s it mate but I can’t imagine over 1.5 Napoli goals had much value in it, but if it did the 19 minute goal would have given good cover.
I don’t think of the French League when it comes to “loads of goals” but I will give your Super Single a go. Bonjour.
Was gonna do Bayern – 2 or 3 but then I looked at Koln and the fact they have quite a good goals against record. Btts NO coul
Yarmouk v al samiyah over 2.5mg winner!
Boco cheers for tryin to alert me to wolfsburg women. May keep an eye on it still
Alva, Koln also have one of the best away record in the Bundesliga. The only value in that game could be Bayern and under 3.5 goals @ 11/10 @ Boyles but I never bet unders in football, and you just don’t know which Bayern could turn up.
FSV Frankfurt to score 2nd half yes @2.0
Hate betting against United but BTTS is value for money. Odds against everywhere. Sunderland have scored in their last 3 away games against Swansea, Spurs and two against City. They are our bogey team, undefeated in the last four ties in all competitions and I’m still not convinced with the way we’re playing. Conceded in our last four home games, most recent two against Leicester and Burnley. Thought it’s better to see through clear specs than red tinted ones.
IN_PLAY:
Istra v L Zagreb
L Zagreb Over 1.5 TG
22 mins gone
1-0
2/1
Bet365
2 pts
***LOST***
Putting it out there, the away side have been woeful. Created next to nothing and a header six yards out that would have been classed as an awful headed pass back.
PSV women
Club brugge women double @3.5
TREBLE 6.4/1
AJAX RESERVES 8/11
LAVAL 6/5
AJACCIO GFCA 19/20
As everyone else is jumping in on this debate I’d just like to say I’m in the exact same boat as Jordan. Spent a couple of years losing on silly premier league accumulators every weekend. It wasn’t until the international break in October I realised there was a comments section at the bottom of this page and realised the advantages of goals markets and then started tipping as I had some success with it
Some guy said earlier istra – lokomotiva is a sure banker for bbts…he was right 1-1
So all in to OM – Caen btts ? I will be watching it live on tv.
tonites bets
Bayern -2 4/5 20%
marsielle btts & o2.5mgs 6/5 20%
nimes win 15/8 20%
Falkirk btts 21/20 20%
3 welsh games o2.5mgs 2/1 5%
Vicenza win 14/5 2.5%
cracovia win 14/5 2.5%
in addition last sunday wen odds came out stuck a few bob on falkirk win 5/1 now 3/1
GL all with a bet on tonite………………..
FSV Frankfurt to score 2nd half yes @2.0 winner!
harry, i’ll jump in too on debate I’ve only been betting online every day for 7 or 8 months and turned things around to winning more than loosing, averaging high teens % profits but would like it to be more obviously
although I bet every day it is for fairly modest sums as work full time in a good job so only for fun really and not looking for an income from it but hate loosing too
I too was a mug punter betting once/twice a week on mad in shop accys until I started following raals advice on here on goals as its yes or no, I do still have a flutter on wdw, and trebles as a max but main bets are always goals as is yes/no 50/50 rather than 33/33/33
without trying to blow smoke up the guys backside I contacted raal a few months by ago email asking for a bit of advice and guidance on my betting habits, the man took some of his own time and emailed me back at length twice offering guidance on the matter which has more than helped me and made betting pleasurable and surely that’s what its all about
the man himself came across on his emails as very humble and without meeting him obviously seemed a very genuine, decent guy
anyone looking to turn around there fortunes contact the man, it did mine and the advice came free……………
in the interest of balance there are many, many other excellent tipsters on here also………………..
Excelsior virton under 2.5mg@1.76
2nd minute ingame penalty missed OM
F,s fell asleep missed all the 7pm lick off’s!
So im stuck with the rangers match, only value i can see is btts 1st half 7/2.
Gluck
collum ref at Falkirk tonite bound to be a blunder or two…………….
Wasters!! Missing from 12 yards
My main bet for tonight:
••• Arsenal de Sarandi v Nueva Chicago – Kick off: 9pm
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE: 5/4 @ Sky Bet
My only bet for tonight and I’m confident it will land again. Good luck if you follow – Sensible stakes as always. Let the weekend begin !!!
Well looks as if the scoring Bayern have turned up!
harpeet looked at that too but bets were on GL to you on it…………….
Craneguy – Thanks mate :-)
Well I seem to have jinxed Nimes by tipping them to win. The league’s top form team 2-0 down at half time to a team without a league win since October. They are now 33/1 to turn it around.
Espanyol
Over 2.5mg Marseille game
Standard liege @5.0
Evening harpreeto
Cheers buddy for the btts got a wee cheeky interest!
Watching the bayern do the damage the noo
on them tae win both halfs…first half Is in the bag☺☺☺
plums, never noticed you were on it too tbh think al give the French football a miss from here on in very unpredictable hopefully Marseille game comes in looks to be a good few on it tonite in one way or another…………….
I already posted this a couple of times this season. Please don’t bet on Jong Ajax, you never know what you get. They already used 44 different players this season including 8 different goalkeepers. They play for nothing, can’t win promotion, can’t get relegated.
Mr Orange, what you almost always get is goals from Jong Ajax apart from that 0-0. I said earlier I had no time to research these games on Friday but would pick some btts or overs at random. At HT nine teams on my Dutch btts sixfold had scored – that’s still the case with 10 to go.
plums, are you watching it? do nimes look like they have it in them to turn it around? ta
I’ve gone through this for the last hour or so trying to see if my eye for goals pays off. Each team noted here is for them to score ONE goal over the weekend. 90% of them have either scored in their last 5 home or away with their opponent conceding in their last 5 home or away, depending on which team I’m taking. The other 10% either have a good h2h and a gut feeling added. I don’t expect anyone to follow this but I’m putting £10 on it to hopefully take me through the weekend. 25 teams to score isn’t the strangest bet you’ll ever see.
Saturday 28th
Stoke
Newcastle
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Derby
Bristol City
Gillingham
Preston
Luton
Halifax
Dundee
Malaga
Sunday 1st
Liverpool
Norwich
Valencia
Cagliari
Palermo
Lazio
Udinese
Inter
Wolfsburg
Bordeaux
PSV
Nacional
Benfica
25 teams, one goal each, 80/1 @ WillHill
that’s the gers Falkirk btts in at lesat afore ht 21/20…………
craneguy, should have taken that for the SS! Don’t know how Marseille’s early penalty miss has affected the game but a third-minute goal would have helped the bet.
F,s fell asleep missed all the 7pm lick off’s!
So im stuck with the rangers match, only value i can see is btts 1st half 7/2.
Gluck
Winner!
Marseille btts 2nd half @ 3.5
Santiago v Uni de Conception 21.30 KO
over 9.5 asian corners
Mr O is that the case for all the Jong teams then?
Yes it is Jordan, these are the numbers:
Jong Ajax 44 different players (8 goalkeepers)
Jong PSV 42 different players (5 goalkeepers)
Jong FC Twente 36 different players (4 goalkeepers)
It’s crazy they let these teams in the division, one week they play their youngest boys and the next game (especially on Monday) you will play the first team reserves who didn’t play on Sunday.
That is a bit crazy. I take it’s because all of the teams in the Eredivise aren’t big enough to field a reserve side?
Well, Fox (Sky) paid a lot of money to get these teams in the league to make it more attractive for TV.
Standard liege over 1.5mg @ 1.83
How are espanyol looking
come on nimes 1 more goal please.
What is AH? what happens if its 2-0 is it a loss? confused.com
Bookie Basher, Asian Handicap – money back if Bayern win by two.
The two goal trebles earlier let down by the usually reliable french under 2.5
All four overs came in but because I mixed and matched meant no winner. Not too disappointed because stakes weren’t big but still would I’ve liked to win lol
How about a bit of support, folks, for the We Love Betting thread this week? I’m the only one whose left a comment so far.
Come on,let’s be aving yer!
stagger, I’ve moved it up a bit to remind people it’s there. I’ve looked at all their weekend tips – interesting stuff as usual.
Flippin French football.
Nimes winning streak ends as I tip them. Craneguy no I didn’t watch. Ah well on to Saturday..
I hope Caen score for those that are in it.
Both teams to score in 2nd half Bayern Munich 10-1
Well done Raal – Wasn’t on it myself but nice one !!!
Just got in goalllllllllllllll!!!!!!!
thanks raal!
Cheers for the Marseille tip Raal, bang on!
lol raal thanks again :)
Raal awesome work as always cheers mate :-)
Thanks Mr F ,the one bet ive never undestood is the asian handicap with the +0.25 and all that really dont get it.
Cheers Raal! Only two bets tonight!
Mr F’s top treble looking safe as houses also.
Well done gents.
Jordan, cheers – picked wrong half for btts at Marseille but happy with the treble.
Profit at the end of the day Mr F! Can always cover that Koln goal if need but I’m not sure there’s any need only being the AH and they aren’t really threatening. I was wary on this one but good stuff.
Raal! You make it look easy mate cheers, im off to get pissed now lol.
BTts has landed thanks guys. Been a good day today for me. Good luck tomorrow I’m done for tonight. Get some rest in!
excellent tipping mr f cheers
Raal I love you. Had a great few days/week between the cricket and your football tips. Thank you once again
Mr. F well done on another profitable night, on fire with your trebles lately
Both of these teams tend to be in amongst the goals and their opposition also concede more often that not. Caen have scored 39 and conceded 38 in the league thus far whereas Falkirk are 38-34. I will go for the following double:
Falkirk to score
Caen to score
2.38/1 Ladbrokes WON :P Normal service resumed.
Marseille carb Byrd 2nd half @3.5 winner
Cheers Mr. F & Raal did a mix of your tips tonight
Well done!!
Bookie Basher you ignorant tw*t can’t your narrow minded brain work out the maths and see if you followed the staking plan you’d be in profit?
Cheers Raal had £1k on that bad boy x
Brilliant tipping again Raal !
Well done Raal, unlucky Mr F wrong half still the treble came in!
Standard Liege over 0.5 goals 6/5 is worth a small dabble
Awesome stuff Raal! Cheers.
Bookie basher you can’t really say year when the man has just got up another 4/1 winning treble, if you only back super single then you may be down but doing the super single and top treble you would be in profit
Lee, glad I caught you, AP is on the exempt list!
Bookie Basher is on the sauce! Alex well done mate.
Thanks Jordan.
Bookie Basher- no one forces you to place the bet only follow if you think it will come in. Secondly it’s not his main job so pay attention.
Excelsior viton under 2.5mg winner
Liege have been poor lately. Won’t be betting on them for a while
MARSEILLE V CAEN –
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 9/10 (Betway)
** WON ** :) **
————————————–
MARSEILLE V CAEN –
TOTAL CAEN GOALS
OVER 0.5 3/4 (Betway)
** WON ** :) **
————————————–
FOR THOSE ABOUT TO COLLECT WE SALUTE YOU :)
Santiago v unv conception
Kicks off in chile in 8 mins
Havent seen shaun tanner post much on south america recently as usually follow his advice.
However, this game, going by stats looks like a definite btts. The last seven meetings have seen btts and o2.5mg. Stats are both teams scoring 30 ish percent of the time in the last 15 mins so could be an in play bet to keep an eye out for.
Btts is $ 1.80
O2.5mg is $1.95
Btts and o2.5 is $2.25
Peter he’s not usually on here for another hour or so. Can’t find markets but I’m going on Tijuana over 1.5 goals in play. Kick off at 3AM so alarms may need to be set.
CC DOUBLE
AJACCIO GFC DNB
BOURG DNB
“”WON””
Hi all.
No scorer in the A-League this morning so here I go again-
Santiago match (Chile 9.30pm)- over 2.5 mg
Jorge Wilstermann match (Bolivia 00.00am)- Jorge Wilstermann to win match
DOUBLE 1.27/1
Single- Santiago match- BTTS & over 2.5 mg 5/4- small bet,
Galatasaray over 1.5 team goals
Bayern Munich -2
Marseille vs Caen BTTS
Standard Liege over 1.5 team goals
let down by the lowest odd on my acca!
Bloody Liege..
Posted result and btts Caen and yes earlier @ 12/1 winner did anyone else go for it?
Been following for a while so thought I would make a contribution. Recently Friday nights have been relatively kind to me so here’s what I’m on:
De Graafschap v FC Eindhoven – BTTS
FC Bourg-Peronnas v Chambly – FC Bourg Double Chance
NEC v Roda JC – Over 1.5 Goals
£10 pays £20.70 *LOST*
Falkirk v Rangers – BTTS
FC Oss v Fortuna Sittard – FC Oss Win
£10 pays £22.62 *WON*
Bayern Munich v FC Koln – Bayern Munich Win
Standard Liege v Cercle Brugge – Standard Liege Win
Galatasaray v Kayseri Erciyesspor – Galatasaray Win
£10 pays £20 *WON*
All with Skybet.
GL whatever you are on.
**
Only one goal short from a full house. Anyway a small profit is still a profit.
CC GOALS TREBLE
HELMOND O1.5 mgls
FC OSS O1.5mgls
BAYERN. O1.5 mgls
GL LADS
“”LOST””
One bloody goal…..tut
Raal well done on as always
Also posted
espanyol
Marseille over 2.5mg
standard liege @5.0 winner!
Did anyone else do it?
Decent day and night. My acca was down but had a few of those selectiond as singles. See yal in the morning at the crack of a sparrows #?!# :-)
The cheek of sum people on here amazes me
Excellent Mr F!
King Raal strikes once more!
Half way there harpic!
Read it this morning Jordan just a way of them stopping him getting his career back on track but may work in vikes favour as he can’t sign elsewhere whilst suspended so hopefully everyone spent their salary cap in march so he comes back with only us able to afford him :-)
Bookiebasher nobody twisting your arm to follow mrf’s supersingle, its all on you!
Great tipping again raal.
In regards to w-d-w vs btts, the are 3 outcomes for w-d-w and 4 for btts.
0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 so that looks like a 25% chance to me based on number of outcomes.
However if the home team, say Barca, scores in 90% of their home games and the away team, say Real Madrid, score in 90% of away games, you could argue that there is a 90% chance of btts, ie 180% of 200% (which I think I’ve seen Simon Wright talk about before). Then you could go into how often each team concede, team news etc.
So I should have to disagree that because the bookies offer 2 choices, yes or no, that there is a 50% chance of being right.
dazzler- I think you are right but I will bow down to the Mathmaticians amongst us. I think it would be something like 1/2 x 1/2 for BTTS i.e. 25% chance of landing whereas for a team simply to score it is 1/2 which is a 50% chance.
CC DOUBLE
BOURNMOUTH
BRISTOL CITY
5/2
GL LADS
ALSO
BURTON
SHREWSBURY
5/2
GL LADS
Raal, on your french tips tonight thanks bud, did gers game btts also, had a very good with horses aswell, HAPPY DAYS!!
Wow Caen.
At 2-0 they were 12/1 over 1.5 team goals
And 80/1 to win.
I had them to score 2nd half 13/8 with a standard liege win 4/1
And had a cheeky £20 on Caen over 2.5 team goals at 10/3.
One day I’ll consider these big odd come backs. Nearly picked standard at 20/1 last week.
CC LONGSHOT
W.BROM
SWANSEA
8/1
GL LADS
Galatasaray & btts win
Falkirk btts
marseille btts win
well done who followed
beat the bookies tonight
Boys as u know, I delved into French football this evening and came up with a lovely 9-10 winner for u all. I really hope plenty of u got on and won sum ££££sss after all as u know I am here to help u all bash the bookies :D
tips
Marseille v caen btts yes 9-10 WINNER!
Now don’t forget Dave’s 6 golden rules and invest these winnings wisely over the weekend, Oui Oui
Bookie basher honestly do I need to do it for you. Like I said follow the staking plan. Tonight the 1.4pt super single lost and the 1pt top treble returned 4pts profit. Therefore if you follow Mr. F’s staking plan tonight you’d be 2.6pts in profit. You really are ignorant I don’t know why I’m replying
Dave well done and keep it up. Nice to see you with a little more modesty than last week too haha
ral the 30 of us all won toneet pal :) u deserve the credit my friend. Mr fixit lovely treble from your good self.
bookie basher, your post proves to all of us on ere we are in the presence of a total moron. In the words of the first lady of tv “bookie basher Goodbye!”
dave, he’s gone – as you say a total moron.
dave, he’s gone – as you say a total moron.
Give me a boom harpeet
Ajjaccio
Le harve
Laval
Dijon
All to win@ £5 returned 108.68
Only recently found this site and also had raals and harpeets tips..and both won. BOOOOM !!!
Thanks ral and thanks mr f.
Managed to get profit up to 39 points for feb so far. Great night tonight made up for 2 bad nights.
1 point on santiago btts and 1 point on over 2.5 match goals
Nice one harpreet again !
Calling harpreeto!!!
Boomaranged in 45 first half miN’s!
Ma boiiiiiiiiiiiii☺☺☺
Harpreet – thanks mate :-)
Everyone slates him all the time but like any other tipster he has his good days & off days. Thanks mate appreciate ur tip :-)
Harry I am always modest, I may get a little carried away wiv myself at times, but I mean no malice to anyone. I do consider myself to be a good tipster who knows his onions and with all the fools who post garbage I feel I sometimes could be under rated. plus I bring a bit of friendly banter to the site. make sure u check out my greyhounds tips coming up, as u know I am now the resident greyhound tipster.
dave, you’re the self-appointed greyhound tipster.
W+BTTS
FC Oss
Den Bosch
Sparta Rotterdam
VVV Venlo
NEC Nijmegen
Jong Ajax
SIXFOLD £1 returns £570 LOST
10P LUCKY 63 £6.30 returns £342 LOST
W+BTTS
Galatasaray
Rangers
Espanyol
Standard Liege
Marseille
Bayern Munich
SIXFOLD £1 returns £1596 LOST
10p LUCKY 63 £6.30 returns £750 2 out of 6 returned £1.76
Total staked £14.70
Total won £1.76
A bad night for me, but I can afford to lose £13 and its on to a wider selection of games tomorrow.
Took your tip Raal £25 smackers on the 9/2 draw no bet with William hills. Was happy with 2-2 but the last minute winner just paid for my weekend!! Yassssssss!!!!!
posted earlier
tonites bets
Bayern -2 4/5 20% WON
marsielle btts & o2.5mgs 6/5 20% WON
nimes win 15/8 20% LOST
Falkirk btts 21/20 20% WON
3 welsh games o2.5mgs 2/1 5% WON
Vicenza win 14/5 2.5% WON
cracovia win 14/5 2.5% LOST
in addition last sunday wen odds came out stuck a few bob on falkirk win 5/1 now 3/1 LOST
GL all with a bet on tonite………………..
had a nice wee inplay caen win wen at 2-2 6/1 WON GALLUS
nice wee nite even with Falkirk draw, bet was placed on last Saturdays winnings…………………….
Nice one again harpreet . Thanks Top Guy.
Harpeet my Man U deserve more credit for your tips, everybody raves about raal and others, but your win ratio is up there with them my friend!
Harpreet may I congratulate on your winner tonight, and even more so, no booms!
No idea why Lee I didn’t really say much last week it was everyone saying it for me about team news etc but hey ho!
nice treble mr f well done on it………….
Dave your comments always make me chuckle so much so I seek out your “as you know” comments
lee as u know I c myself more of a tipster than comedian I haven’t done my sums lately but I would be dumstruck if all the tips I posted on this site I haven’t been 90% winners, so much so I am now tipping my hand at the dogs (not the wife, she is more of a whale) :)
Dave it was slightly tongue in cheek, I know you mean no harm and there’s nothing wrong with a bit of banter on here! I’ll maybe have a look at the racing thread when the cricket world cup is over as I think I’ll need something to fill the void
harry as u know u will be more than welcome to follow the racing thread. I follow the other sports thread and was enthralled by the super bowl and had great banter with the nfl boys ( the cheerleaders helped and so did katy perry) I am however not a cricket fan, so don’t really follow it and one of “dave’s golden rules” is always research a tip and the concept confuses even a huge mind mine :)
Blimey went for a nap when I got in from work woke up now missed all the games! Checked my account and boom I won a 26/1 6 fold get in
Ajaccio
Bourg peronnas
Latina
Eyspanol
Mattersburg
Kaiserslautern
Get in £268 from £10
Jord from Guernsey seems to put my comment in moderation when I spell out your name probably cos of last week’s spat u had
WINNER :-) 1-1 46MINS – £££££ ANOTHER WINNER !!!
My main bet for tonight:
••• Arsenal de Sarandi v Nueva Chicago – Kick off: 9pm
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE: 5/4 @ Skybet
My only bet for tonight and I’m confident it will land again. Good luck if you follow – Sensible stakes as always. Let the weekend begin !!!
Jord from Guernsey I saw the post this morning regarding Peterston could work in the vikes favour as hopefully everyone will have spent all their salary cap in march meaning we are only team that can afford him
Istra 1961 (9/10) v Lok. Zagreb (3/10) – 17.00
Lok. Zagreb to score Over 1.5 Team goals @ 11/10 *LOST*
nice one harpeet, as said earlier fancied it too but bets were on well done son………………….
aye mr f Falkirk v gers btts looked a stick on, gers honkin’ again good h2h against bairns too, rotten again deffo no corner turned yet………………..
craneguy, I hate going against such strong stats but reckoned Falkirk were worth a punt not to lose – that was a real bit of Bookie Bashering if you get my drift. I don’t mind criticism but not on a night where I made a profit and also put up a big-priced Super Single. Also picking btts first or second half was toss of a coin.
not me slagging you off mr f you please forgive me if came across that way………………….
craneguy, the second part of the comment wasn’t directed at you – it was at the guy who branded me a “retard” for tonight’s winning tips.
aye theres aye wan mr f………………..
Guys :-)
Thank you all so much really appreciate it. I’m glad you guys got on. It was my only tip for today and like I said I was confident it will land. Well done to all that was on. One for the forum – BOOOOOOOOM !!!!
You had to ruin it Harp. I just congratulated you for your winner and not booming haha
Saw the Peterston article mate something in my post keeps going to moderation so wont say to much except could be good for us
Just seen Latina won with a 90 min penalty God damn glad I was asleep! That’s my luck for the week right there!
Alex I’m just saying I don’t think it’s that simple. For example, Villa have failed to score in 15 of 26 premier league matches and City have only failed to score in 2. Villa have failed to score in 9 of 13 aways and City haven’t failed to score away from home in any of their premier league games this season.
That being said, I do think for raal, the chances of him picking a team to score or btts are actually higher than the mathematical outcome odds because of the way he can pick them.
dazzler-I think you have misunderstood I was merely pointing out the probablility of both methods based on the various outcomes as opposed to using specific examples of teams i.e. I agree with the maths and of course certains are more likely to bring up certain bets simples.
Just noticed raal and DMcG each tipped the bets i posted before me.
well done to you, didnt mean for it to look like id tried to take the credit
harpeet son, chill oot on “booms” and “another winner” and just post WON, just winds guys up mate plenty post wins on here with no animated comments……………. ;)
I think putting your name in a comment may have gone to moderation mr Guernsey in case I was going to slate you :-) u confident for 2moro am hoping we see Falcao and rooney up top for few weeks see how the gel which should decide if we keep him, I really Kong rooney running and hard work could free up some space for Falcao though maybe am dreaming
I have to say I’m not Lee! I posted a reasoning why I think BTTS is a good bet tomorrow, they’re undefeated against us in the last 4 in all comps and have scored at Swansea, Spurs and two at City in their last three aways. Hopefully we’ll win but I think BTTS is is a cert. WillHill have correct score group bets now, Man Utd to win 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 @ 7/5 and 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 @ 7/2. Might have a stake on the 7/5!
Typical…no goals in first half in chile game. I’m keeping the faith. Can’t believe this won’t be a goal feast on second half (fingers crossed)
Dave as I know u have provided a lot of winning tips but the banter helps am sure your mrs enjoys helping us spend ur winnings mine has talked me into taking her out for meal thanks to mr fixits treble
lee I took my missus out dinner the week before valentines for dinner a little place I know. I enjoyed a lovely bucket. I had to sit and watch in sheer horror as she devoured a corn on the cobb, which was dripping in butter. Her chubby fingers were soaked in lard and it was dribbling down her chins. Local youths in hoodies were smirking as they walked past our table lookin at her.
my advice is never tell ur other half how much u have won, always half it that way its easy to keep up the lie :)
HAHAHAHAHAHA
Jordan – Ha ha thanks mate. I’ve only said it once as a few wanted it lol!! Anyway all good and glad people have had some winners today.
Woodsy – Just read your comment mate. Thank you I appreciate it. Glad you was on it !!
You can’t use that much maths in things like this because of the human element. 3 way markets don’t have a 33.33% chance because there is usually a favourite and their chance of winning will be more than 33.33%. Both teams to score is not 50/50 it’s the chance of the home team scoring times the chance of the away team scoring. A 9/1 accumulator does not have a 1 in 10 chance because of the margin within odds so it is quite a bit less. This would be the case if odds in two way markets were like 1/1 and 1/1, 4/6 and 6/4 and if in three way markets they were like 2/1 and 2/1 and 2/1, 1/1 and 3/1 and 3/1 because here there is no margin but they aren’t.
VP gonna have to stop you there. A favourite could be 1/100 but they still only have a 33% chance of winning in WDW.
Not at all gowzzer my man, as long as we’re all pulling crisp notes from the grasp of the bookies stinking fingers it doesn’t matter
Regarding AP, I think they might actually offer him a financial apology myself. Draft a decent WR and you could have an offense to challenge in the division, but you won’t beat my Packers haha, not sure if you’ve seen any of the players in the draft but Kevin White looks to be one hell of a receiver! Larry Fitzgerald but with lighting speed!
Footie fan well done with your tips I bet first thing this morning but good call on the marseille game
U keep them booms comin pal I love em!!
Mr Guernsey u just gave me flashbacks of that league cup game where de gea threw ball in net to take game to extra time via hernandez goal late on. Thinking bout it that game could have got us cup final and the bayern quarter final could have gone our way, best game I enjoyed under moyes was our home comeback 3-0 against the Greeks was moyes that bad in hindsight
Mr Guernsey haha, might change my name to that! That’s the bogey game I was on about mate. We’ve been hit and miss but surely we’ll win tomorrow. I hope? Please god please haha, have to say I can’t remember many good times under Moyes but the 4-0 in Newcastle is one that jumps out which I think was just before our second leg in Germany. When Evra scored I was nursing the worst throat infection I’ve ever had which only added more salt in my wounds, then we conceded all but a minute later. The joys of United since Fergie left haha
Everyones in a good mood tonight :)
just nearly choked on my fig roll at Dave taking his wife to KFC for valentines.
Well done to all the winners tonight. I fancy Forest at a price tomorrow
anything for tonites SA games ladies? no craig alves tonite by looks of it to guide us on corners…………..
aye CC its yer preverbial love in tonite everyones chilled oot………………
Jordan they don’t its weighted if it was 33% they wouldn’t be 1/100 because then the double chance of the other is 67% and the odds would be over 20/1 which wouldn’t work. Odds reflect chances
It doesn’t matter mate, football is football and with WDW it’s 3 outcomes. 33% chance of winning whether you’re 1/100 or EVS. Odds don’t mean anything when a team like Bradford goes and outplays Chelsea at Stamford Bridge @ 28/1.
gallus yer there craig will take a look son an post ma overnite thoughts/ramblings too………….
Who wouldn’t take a 67% chance bet that has huge odds
Exactly VP, 66% on a DC, that’s where plenty of people make their money.
Centrecircle – Hope your well mate
Craneguy, I’m on corners in the Santiago v Uni de Conception game just now and will be on 2 other games in just over an hour, O’Higgins v Barnechea and Goody Cruz v Huracan over asians in both and O’Higgins RT7 with small stake on Huracan RT7 as it’ll be a big price
Just took Uni de Conception RT7 at 6/4 too, 2 more corners needed in 20+ mins
Tijuana team goals gents but like I said you may have to set your alarms as it’s a 3AM kick off.
craig a took over 10c in that game 11/10
lost exactly 10c………..
Based on that 33% Barcelona and Real Madrid should win around 13 league games in a season but they win over 30 because it’s weighted
You’re not getting it VP lets leave it at that mate. Upsets happen.
The number of outcomes doesn’t determine the chances with most things
Jordan I hate saying this but I know I’m right. Of course upsets happen but only every so often and odds reflect that. I’m a maths student
VP maths has nothing to do with how well a 1/100 team performs on game day. Win/Draw/Win. 3 outcomes. 33.3333333333% chance of landing. It’s not difficult.
To all the regulars on here ,keep up the good work ,great site and great tipsters ,
£10 treble Plymouth ICT bristol city pays67
Cs patent Burnley 2 swansea2@14/1
Bham 2 Brentford 3 @28/1
Bristol c 3 Rochdale 1@12/1
£5 Burnley draw
Brentford
Derby
Fleetwood
Shrewsbury draw pays 794.
£5 btts bmouth vblackburn
Bhamvbrentford
Bristol CV rdale
Burnley vswansea
Stjohstone v killy pays 85
£5 +2 goals same 6 games and fhamv derby pays 190
£1 pvale
Fleetwood
Stranraer
Wolves
Blackpool
Wba draw pays 333.
£2 btts and result
Brentford
Forest
Bristol. City
Pvale pays 1072.
£1 result and +2 goals
Burnley draw
Brentford
Forest
Bristol city pays 600
£5 fgs treble Donny ings
Wayne Rooney
Pappa cisse pays 825
£1 anytime same 3 and
Greg Stewart
Lyle Taylor pays 132
£1 btts 1st half
Burnley v Swansea
Leeds vwatford
Dutd vpartick
Stjohnstone v killy pays 619
Been so close lately this weekends the one I can feel it.
Sorry to use your post Raal but I was getting bored of this debate.
‘Alex I go from experience mate and also the mathematical chance of the bet as in theory you have a 50% chance of landing your goals bet but only 33% of your win bet’.
Didn’t see Santiago finishing 0-0, 2 points lost on that one
Santiago v Uni de Conception 21.30 KO
over 9.5 asian corners
This was meant to be 10.0 asian corners but ££ back as it finished 3-7 so got the inplay RT7 up at 6/4 so not all bad :)
FFS sorry no goals at all in Santiago. Not a great start to the night for me. Will be back again shortly in Argentina & Ecuador.
You get around Mr Tanner! Argentina and Ecuador? Sounds like a right party!
Crane not sure on the Monarcas game but the Tijuana one looks ok. Wish you well.
Went to my first rugby league tonight was waiting on St helens minus 12 for a lot. .21 8 with 30 secondo ti go Castleford try 21 14 sick i was.
Going to stick to tipsters on here instead of thinking I an good cause I ain’t.
Read raal bets on marseille game early today and ignored cause I was going to the game more fool me..
Raal I have a lot to learn. .
What u am trying say is i think I am good at gambling but I am not.
last for tonite both mexico gems
monarcas o2.5mgs 21/20
tijuana o2.5mgs 1/1
double 3/1
small stake to take edge off rattlin’ like a soup poat……………….
Jordan, guy says hes a student leave it hes a lot tae learn in life an by my experience they know it awe an wont be told……………….
Goody Cruz v Huracan 00.10 KO
Over 9.5 asian corners 1.950
Huracan RT7 (IN-PLAY) small stake
O’Higgins v Barnechea 00.00 KO
Over 10.5 asian corners 1.925
O’Higgins RT7 (IN-PLAY)
Jordan maths does have something to do with it but it’s not like I need it to know this. Based on your theory the chance of over 2.5 and under 2.5 is 50/50 because that’s a two way market. Under 3.5 and over 3.5 in the same game is another two way market and by your theory this is also 50/50 and that is not possible, this is the best way I can show you that the a two way thing doesn’t mean it is 50/50, the same goes for three. In a 20 way market you say each chance is 5%, so you’re saying the chance of Real Madrid winning the league is the same as Eibar, that’s wrong.
Jordan bayern’s record in the league this season is 18/4/1 so are you saying the chance of them losing the next game is 33.33% because there are 3 outcomes?
chances of jordan understanding probality theory?
*probability
Mr Guernsey in was 8 years old when I chose the red devils as my team and in the last few years it’s been tough watching city take over but I enjoy our games more now not expecting to win all time it makes our wins all the sweeter of u know what I mean
Craneguy I apologise if you think I think know it all, I know I dont. But when I know I’m right I want others to know the right thing
Boys as u know, we have all bashed the bookies tonight, I have only just watched the wife waddle up the street for her neet shift, before I order a late nite dirty kebab, out my winnings before chillin and watchin nba and cheerleaders. Lets keep the peace.
Dave my mrs is a fitness instructor so I not had a KFC for years but am sure those local youths were only jealous ;-)
Only of the chicken in my bucket my friend
Huracan RT7 7/1
aye nae bother vp fire in son witever
kyp, how’d yer 100 tips get on today ?………..
aye Jordan the moncaras gem looks the dodgey wan matey, we’ll see tomorrow…………….
Jordan I also read your tips on the NBA (and NFL) in the other sports thread, which you have a very good win % in.
So since the are 2 outcomes in the money line markein for NBA do they both have a 50% chance of coming tips
I’m not having a go or anything because your tipping is good and I’ve made money from your NBA and NFL tips.
What has somebodies record got to do with it? Dortmund are 7/4/11? So what? The chance of any team winning, drawing or losing in any game before any ball is kicked before the whistle goes is 33% in WDW, not total goals, not total bookings, WIN DRAW WIN, at whatever odds. Manchester United are 4/11 to win tomorrow? Based on what? Playing terrible and scraping through games?
Jordan it’s a pointless debate really. Bottom line is in W-D-W there are three outcomes while in both to score there are only two. In theory both to score tips are easier to call and that’s right but you need to pick the right ones. Tips are up, dug needs a walk and then I’m having a beer. Goodnight all.
O’Higgins RT7 11/10 – 0-1 inplay
Jordan and VP you are both right lol
Before a ball is kicked the wdw is 33.3 regardless of who is playing (so Jordan you are technically right)
VP you are also right as you have to start weighting the outcome dependent upon many variables.
The key is to spot when the bookie has weighted this incorrectly or the game is flowing in such a way it does not match the odds being offered.
* 50% chance of coming in.
Did like the look of the Loja game in Ecuador going BTTS but have scrapped that as I’m not fully confident to bet on it,
So just the one in Argentina where I feel the home team have a track record of conceding regularly at home & don’t score in abundance which may give the away team chances.
Godoy Cruz v Huracan. Argentina Primera Division. 00.10am.
BTTS 5/4.
Finger licking good Dave, the only way to live.
david as u know u have a good name and good taste too. however another free tip never take a porker there ;)
I think you boys are forgetting that the debate is on the WDW market based on one game, not probability of winning a league title…
David only if you have no idea of who’s playing and which side is at home would it maybe be 33.33% for each.
I’m just using other things because based on your theory this would be the case for all number of markets if 3 then 1/3 if 100 then 1/100 so 1/n
OHiggins/Jorge Wilstermann matches in-play
Over 0.5 FHG DOUBLE 1.55/1
Dazzler has just said about Bayern as well
Exactly Best Bettor, Jordan here’s a three way wdw market example
Barcelona v Oldham under 13s at the Nou Camp
Would that be 33.33% each
No VP because you obviously wouldn’t bet on the Oldham U13’s would you. Although they still have a 33% chance of winning the game before any ball is kicked.
When I said I’m going to have to stop you as a 1/100 favourite only has a 33% chance of winning, I’m in fact 100% correct. I used 1/100 as an example. It’s the same for any odds given whether its home team win @ 23/20, Draw @ 21/10, or an away win @ 13/5, each market is 33%. I’m taking WDW, not probabilities of teams winning out of 100, or winning the league…
jordan 2 outcomes
comet over 0.5 ton hits earth next minute YES
comet over 0.5 ton hits earth next minute NO
PROBABILITY 50/50 ?
VP I think that is the angle Jordan is looking at it from. If you had no idea who was playing and who was home then it would be 1 in 3.
If you had no idea and picked btts then 1 in 2
It is not until you weight the possible outcomes that this changes.
All a game of probability dependent upon many factors :-)
VP, people knew what team they were betting on when Chelsea played Bradford at home in the FA Cup. Didn’t matter because people betting on Bradford knew they had a 33% of winning before the ball was kicked. The same as if they had a 66% chance landing if they bet Bradford DC. Jesus…
awwwww nice to c vp and him in the same thread at the same time I sense they will both go same way as bookie basher soon ;) don’t make me quote the first lady of tv
But David when you place a bet you know what team you are betting on
Jordan I like you but you are definitely wrong here. If you think this then you should bet on every double chance at odds of greater than 2/1 and if you are correct then in the long run you are in guaranteed profit. You won’t listen to me so I just hope someone more notable, like Mr F or Raajaca because you will trust them, says something to say I’m correct.
V P, what’s he’s saying is correct – there are three possible outcomes. After that you factor in odds but there are still three potential results for every game. This is the case no matter who is playing as opposed to two outcomes for both to score no matter who is playing. Now let’s leave it at that as it’s getting boring now.
The same with Barcelona last week against Malaga. People knew they were betting on Barcelona to win @ 1/11, but it still only has a 33% chance of winning, where as Malaga DC has a 66% chance, regardless on whats odds bookies give you. Am I wrong? No.
Jordan I’ve said that it will happen every so often. I’m not saying a team at 100/1 odds will never win I’m just saying they don’t have a 33.33% chance of winning
Regardless of how short bookies gives odds for a favourite, the reality is the win/draw/win market is 33% for each outcome, which is what I’ve said from the start. Nothing else, not to win the league, not total match goals. Win/Draw/Win.
VP as you see there is no point continuing this……jordan you are 100% right
See VP I think you’ve misunderstood the whole thing. I never said a team @ 100/1 has a 33.3% chance of winning. I said a team @ 1/100 can still lose based on the simple fact that the WDW is 33% for each outcome.
Jordan you are talking about two examples, probability is about the long run.
I have understood everything you are trying to say and about the 1/100 I am saying that they will have a greater than 33.33% chance of winning
Of course they have a greater chance VP, I never said they didn’t. But unfortunately the WDW market only offers three outcomes, which where the 33.33333% comes from. I never said that a favourite @ 1/100 has only 33.3% chance of winning. I think you’ve confused my words with something else. I was talking purely on the WDW market, no matter what team at what odds. I think we are in fact both right in what we’re saying but you’ve really mixed my words with something else.
O’Higgins lead 4-1 at HT and it’s still 0-0
Mr f there are 4 outcomes in btts
Neither team score
home team score-away team don’t
Home team don’t score-away team do
Both teams score
Only one in four of these outcomes will win you a btts bet.
Just because bookies offer you yes or no that isn’t 2 outcomes, that is 2 options.
I do agree that in the majority of football matches the chance of btts is increased because that’s the aim of the game, to score goals and win.
But CHANCE has nothing to do with the numbers of outcomes! It’s the probability of something happening, which is why a teams record, form, ground they are playing at, starting 11 etc matter.
It doesn’t matter what market it is, the principal that is being put forward is the same. You can’t just apply a mathematical theory of chance to the w-d-w market and say it only applies to that market because that isn’t how maths/chance works.
Tonight there hawks can win or lose on the ml, so who’s backing Magic @ 6/1 because it has a 50% chance of winning apparently. Even though they are the away team and it’s been pointed out a number of times that home court is such an advantage in the NBA. Also, I think, the hawks are 45/12, while magic are 19/40. It could happen! But the chance of it happening is not 50%. And that is why magic are 6/1.
Dazzler the chance of Magic winning is 50/50 but the probability is no where near. I think this has been overblown and VP has taken it way out of context.
Jordan chance will change from the time the ball is kicked, tipped off etc. But the chance @ tip off, kick off is still not 33% just because you have 3 outcomes.
dazzler as u know we r not idiots here, u r obviously a newbie. We as tipsters know there are 4 outcomes on a btts market. Don’t insult our intelligence please, stay quiet and follow us, that way you may win some £££ss :D
Thank you Dazzler, Jordan I don’t think I have, you replied to what I put up, trying to correct me wrongly
Dave I’m not new I tip baseball, which is in the off season atm and I do alright.
I know the majority on here are not idiots and as I’ve said I’ve followed Jordan on the other sports thread and I know he’s good. But there is a difference between chance and options and they aren’t the same.
Looks lads I’m not being funny but if you think I’m wrong then you must think Raal is wrong too. I’ll leave it at that.
Goody Cruz v Huracan has 7 corners at HT, 6-1 to the home side so 3 more 2nd half corners but Huracan RT7 looks like a loser, only small stakes as it was 7/1
If he thinks that then yes I do think he’s wrong, but his opinion isn’t be all and end all, but I doubt he does.
Ok VP I think I may have used the wrong words and shouldn’t have said chance but you’ve taken my words the wrong way either way. WDW is purely 33.3%, take away all teams, all odds, so no probabilities etc, it’s 3 outcomes. 33.3%. We’re both right, Dazzler I was not saying Bayern would lose 1 of their next 3 games, didn’t mention any teams what so ever. Purely based my judgment on the WDW market itself without any odds of favourites.
Jordan chance is probability, the definition of chance is the probability of something happening and that’s what I’m getting at.
You have the option to make one of two choices (50%), win or lose, but chance is the probability of that choice being right. I think we’re on the same page, just using different words. Good luck with your treble tonight.
I’ve just seen Mr F’s comment stating I’m correct so I’ll say no more. Apologies to anyone who’s been bored reading this. Dave I stand by my word that you should do stand up.
Tijuana/Pachuca over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 @ WillHill
Kick off 3:00AM.
Dazzler as u know I have told you u r wrong, Mr f as told you your wrong read the comments, u have backed the wrong dog in this time in VP and him who I wont name (greyhounds tips coming soon, get on these dogs) Jordan is correct now chill. If u want to b annoyed at something my ruby murray is 5 mins late, I am fuming!
Well Dave since Jordan has just said he may have been using the wrong words, I am right And like I said we were talking about the same thing just using different words, which is why it got confusing and that’s fine. Enjoy your curry.
Ok Mr F but then that argument is pointless because who bets based on odds and not knowing who the team are or where. Bookmakers aren’t going odd a team 1/100 thinking there’s a 33% chance of them winning anyway. I won’t comment on the football thread anymore if no one can see what dazzler, best bettor and I are saying because in essence it is simple probability. I was just trying to help
Boys lets not fall out about it. VP you’re still using odds which is not what I’m saying. Think you’ve just taken it the wrong way. The market itself, not teams in it.
Goody Cruz v Huracan 00.10 KO
Over 9.5 asian corners 1.950 WIN :)
Huracan RT7 (IN-PLAY) small stake LOSE :(
O’Higgins v Barnechea 00.00 KO
Over 10.5 asian corners 1.925
O’Higgins RT7 (IN-PLAY)
6-4 FT so both bets lose by an O’Higgins corner :(