FEB 23: MILESEY’S RACING TIPS AND CHAT

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LOVE him or hate him you never get a dull moment with Milesey.

Here’s his racing tips and hopefully he’ll pick a few winners and be in a good mood tomorrow night.

1.0 Fairyhouse
DOGORA 1.77

Had to work hard last time out to justify being odds-on favourite that day and the same will apply today if the unbeaten record is to stay intact. Will have come on from last run-out when had to grind the win and could come under threat by Stocktons Wing. I’m taking a big risk on this French raider but fully expect it to again battle to success. People’s opinions differ and I’ve heard it talked as a “lay” for those who side with Stocktons Wing. Short-priced favourite, you decide!

1.35 Chepstow
PAY THE KING 1.31

This horse has been slipped into the race by the cunning Paul Nicholls as he gives it the best oppurtunity to make a winning debut over hurdles. One of the best novices in the Nicholls’ yard comes up against very modest opposition.

2.05 Kempton
IRISH SAINT 1.75

Last time out couldn’t hold off Rolling Star, but it’s still in top class form for a juvenile. Won easily over C&D on his UK debut and should learn from last time out. Paul Nicholls has a great record in this race and won it in 2011 with Zarkandar.

2.20 Newcastle
ROBBIE 2.12

Robbie has to defy a 9lb rise after landing a treble at Doncaster last time out, this will of cause make things tougher, but this horse is on the up and gets better with every race. I expect it to defy the weight today and go on to win.

2.35 Fairyhouse
SEABASS 3.35

Seabass began his preparation for the National with an eye-catching second behind Rock Critic over hurdles here at the beginning of the month and he’s taken seriously, Katy Walsh on board today, so national jockey is back for this trip.

2.40 Kempton
MOLOTOF 2.08

Molotof won with ease two weeks ago at Warwick and there is still a lot more to come based on that run, been put up to a mark of 152 after that win.

3.40 Lingfield
WELSH INLET 8.2

5lb taken off, back down to a useful mark, could get competitive again in this race today.

3.50 Kempton
ROLLING ACES 4.7

Paul Nicholls has saddled the favourite in the last five years and Rolling Aces will be popular with punters here. Progressive, he’s on a hat-trick.

2.55 Newcastle
TARQUINIUS 10.5 E/W

Tarquinius makes the trip over from Ireland. Winner of five chases from 2m 5f to 3m 3f on ground varying from good to soft to heavy. Beaten a head by Jadanli when second of 18 at 25-1 on his latest outing in a chase at Gowran Park over 3m 1f (heavy) last month. Gordon Elliot trained and Jim Maguire in the saddle.

Milesey

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36 Comments
  1. Milesey 4 years ago

    Race in focus 3.50 Kempton :

    What A Friend has not won since Aintree Bowl success of 2010, again failing to impress with attitude in latest renewal of that race when last seen. Down in grade with blinkers left off on return.

    Nacarat is a Grade 1 winner whose form has been patchy in recent years, though successful in this from 1 lb lower 12 months ago from Hector’s Choice. Folded tamely latest start at Aintree.

    Roberto Goldback was better than ever when landing 3m Ascot handicap on first start for this yard in November and has had excuses since. Been given a chance by the handicapper.

    Rolling Aces is a point/hurdles winner whose Newbury (2¾m) handicap success in December represents really strong form. Went in again at Wincanton on Boxing Day and has a lot more to offer over fences.

    Hector’s Choice is a smart handicap chaser, runner-up to Nacarat in this 12 months ago before scoring at Cheltenham. Should have come on for recent run over hurdles at Ffos Las.

    Quantitativeeasing has struggled since landing valuable 21f Cheltenham handicap in December 2011, but been given big chance in the weights.

    Quinz won this off current mark 2 seasons ago. Seen out only 3 times since, though, pulled up each occasion, but interesting if problems are behind him.

    Wyck Hill has been progressing really well and scored again in 3m Ascot handicap in December from improving Katenko. Bought privately since by leading owner and more big-race success likely forthcoming.

    Duke of Lucca was uccessful 3 times in novice campaign over fences last term and ran well when second to Roberto Goldback on return at Ascot. Ran poorly in Hennessy but been given break since.

    Opening Batsmen was a fairly useful hurdler for Paul Nicholls and has made up into an even better chaser, second to Rolling Aces in between victories at Plumpton and Wincanton (21f, handicap). Not sure to stay 3m.

    Same Difference was a fairly useful hurdler last term and has taken well to fences, getting off mark at Leicester (3m). Good effort behind Unioniste at Newbury last time and could have more to offer.

    Mister Hyde’s chasing form has taken off this time around fitted with visor, winning at Market Rasen and over C&D. Came in for aggressive ride at Sandown last time and worth keeping on side.

    Summery Justice is not the best of jumpers but has good strike-rate when completing, successful in 3m Perth handicap chase last April. Third at Sandown on comeback but wouldn’t be sure to build on it.

    VERDICT: Rolling Aces is progressing well and can become the fourth novice to win this race following Gloria Victis (2000), La Landiere (2003), and Quinz (2011). The last-named has had his problems since his victory but connections have stuck with him and he could be interesting, though a stronger case can obviously be made for the improving Wyck Hill.

    View from trainer GORDON ELLIOTT on his runners today:

    15:10 Fairyhouse – Realt Mor

    This is his first run for us since he came over from the Nicky Richards’ yard at the end of January, after being off the track for over a year prior to that. I think he is quite a nice horse, and he has been doing everything right at home since his arrival, working and jumping well. He had some decent form over hurdles in the UK where he had an OR of 127, and I would expect that he will be very competitive over fences if we can get him back to that level.

    Davy Condon takes the ride and we have the tongue strap on for the first time, so I am expecting a good run from him here with one eye on the future as he looks a nice prospect.

    14:55 Newcastle – Tarquinius

    He’s been in good form since he finished second to Jandanli, beaten a head, in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park towards the end of January. This race is over one mile further than that, but to be honest he stays all day and I’m confident he will get the trip. My only worry would be that he doesn’t look too well handicapped now on the face of things, and he has to contend with a 13lbs rise in the weights, running off an OR of 136 now compared to 123 in the Thyestes.

    As per usual, it’s a fiercely competitive handicap in which he is set to carry 11st 1lbs but he is ultra-consistent and as tough as they come. If he can reproduce the form he has been showing of late I am confident he can run well here with Jason Maguire in the plate.

    Milesey

  2. Milesey 4 years ago

    My best tips today
    ——————-

    Italy v Wales

    The Italians enjoyed the perfect start to the competition with their remarkable win over France at home but they failed to back this up as they were well beaten in Scotland. Italy do not seem to be able to put any consistency together, but are a very difficult team to beat in front of their own fans. The side have not lost by more than eight points at home for four years in the Six Nations and two scalps over the French demonstrate their capabilities.

    Wales did not play with any real fluency in France but did manage a priceless win which ended a run of eight consecutive defeats. Perhaps this will mark the turning point for last year’s Grand Slam champions but I am not convinced. Interim coach Rob Howley knows this will be another potential banana skin for his side and they will not find it easy in Rome.

    The last five Six Nations encounters have all been won by Wales but Italy did manage to beat then at home back in 2007. The Italians are gradually improving and coach Jacques Brunel has set his side the target of two victories in the competition this year. Wales at home probably represents their best chance and they are worth supporting, in the handicap market, against fragile opposition.

    Back Italy +6.5 points at 2.24
    ————————————

    Middlesbrough v Millwall
    Saturday 23rd February
    17.20 GMT

    Boro’s recent poor run means they are available at 2.08, which is an attractive price for a side who, have won 11 times at home this season. Millwall’s confidence is no doubt fragile after those five losses and they will likely have one of the smallest travelling contingents of supporters at the Riverside all season so everything should be in the home side’s favour. Mowbray will have left his side in no doubt that if they have genuine promotion aspirations they simply have to get their campaign back on track here and I can’t see beyond a home win.

    Back Boro to win at 2.08
    ——————————————————-

    Milesey

    • Milesey 4 years ago

      Golf bet still going well….. As Jason Day plays his 3rd round match later today against Bubba 😉

      Milesey

      http://www.worldgolfchampionships.com/accenture-match-play-championship/leaderboard.html

      Match 54 (1st tee)
      9:46 a.m. ET (7:46 a.m. local)
      BUBBA WATSON (7-3) vs. JASON DAY (5-2)

      Watson is the only player ranked in the top 10 in the world who remains in the field. He’s also played more holes than anybody else this week (39). Of those 39 holes, he’s only trailed after one hole. Both players are long off the tee, so Day doesn’t expect to give up much ground in distance. “I’m driving the ball really, really nicely,” he said.

      —————————————
      WGC Accenture Match Play

      Back Jason Day @ 61.0

      After a hugely exciting 2011 which included second placed finishes at the Masters and US Open, last year was a write-off for an injury-hit Jason Day. Thankfully, this young Aussie looks to be fit and back in form with two top-10s in three tournaments this year. A big hitter and fantastic putter, Day looks to have the goods for a strong run at Dove Mountain and at 60-1 we’re getting a nice price for a major talent.

  3. Milesey 4 years ago

    LATEST ODDS
    ———–

    1.00 Fairyhouse
    DOGORA 10/11 bet365 2.04 betfair

    1.35 Chepstow
    PAY THE KING 4/5 bet365 1.63 betfair

    2.05 Kempton
    IRISH SAINT 7/4 bet365 2.6 betfair

    2.20 Newcastle
    ROBBIE 6/4 bet365 3 betfair

    2.35 Fairyhouse
    SEABASS 4/1 bet365 4.6 betfair

    2.40 Kempton
    MOLOTOF 5/4 bet365 2.4 betfair

    3.40 Lingfield
    WELSH INLET 10/1 bet365 11.5 betfair

    3.50 Kempton
    ROLLING ACES 4/1 bet365 5.1 betfair

    2.55 Newcastle
    TARQUINIUS 13/2 bet365 9.4 betfair

    Milesey

  4. 1plus2 4 years ago

    If you were doing a double/treble wat would be ur preferred picks m8 ?

  5. Milesey 4 years ago

    1.35 Chepstow
    PAY THE KING 4/5 Bet365 1.63 betfair

    2.05 Kempton
    IRISH SAINT 7/4 Bet365 2.6 betfair

    2.40 Kempton
    MOLOTOF 5/4 Bet365 2.4 betfair

    TREBLE
    ——-

    Milesey

  6. FATHEAD 4 years ago

    Irish Saint 6/4
    Molotov 11/8
    Sea Bass 7/2
    Nice .
    Thanx Milesey
    Good Luck to all today

  7. Milesey 4 years ago

    NEWCASTLE Is OFF due to the snow !

    so scratch :
    ROBBIE and TARQUINIUS

    Thank you

    Milesey

    • Milesey 4 years ago

      SATURDAY’S meeting at Newcastle, due to feature the Betfred Eider Chase, has been abandoned due to snow.

      Clerk of the course James Armstrong had been worried that frost could cause the meeting some problems but it was unpredicted snow that cost the track one of its biggest racedays.

      Armstrong said: “The snow probably started at about 2am in the morning and has been on and off since.

      “We’ve covered nearly three-quarters of the track with fleece and even trying to get that off the course would have caused a major headache. It’s balling up as you pull it up and then it tears.

      “We could also get as much as two additional inches of snow through the day.”

      There was better news at Chepstow where a morning inspection was cancelled with no sign of frost. The going is good to soft, soft in places.”

      Milesey

  8. Milesey 4 years ago

    The opening handicap chase (13:30) over an extended two and a half miles. Filbert is the only last-time-out winner and is bound to be popular, but plenty of others are also in good form, arguably none more so than Milarrow. He’s been placed on all three starts in handicap chases, beaten out of sight when runner-up to Rajdhani Express over C&D on Boxing Day but shaping a good deal better when eight lengths behind Politeo at Wincanton last time. That day Milarrow pressed on with eventual third Ballyallia Man, the pair ultimately paying for it as the winner stuck on by them. Milarrow comes into today’s race off the same mark and, consistent through his career thus far, looks bound to give a good account.

    In the big race of the day, the Racing Plus Chase at 15:50. As you’d imagine, this is a tough handicap to crack and we’d be lying if we said we had a sure thing with rivals such as Wyck Hill and Nacarat in attendance, but nevertheless we think Rolling Aces holds outstanding claims. He hasn’t looked back since going chasing, finishing third in a hot maiden on debut before winning an extraordinarily competitive handicap at the Hennessy meeting (runner-up Merry King was just touched off in the Tommy Whittle next time and the next three home won on their next starts) and recording a routine win at Wincanton since over a horse that would win from a BHA mark of 134 on his next outing. Winning a race like this off a BHA mark of 149 will be no small task: it’s only 2 lb lower than Gloria Victis was when he won the corresponding race 13 years ago, but that same horse is one of a few novices to win the Racing Plus Chase already this century, so experience needn’t necessarily be an issue for Rolling Aces.

    A competitive little handicap at 16:25. There are no less than three Timeform ‘Horses In Focus’ entered up among the 16 runners, but it’s Katkeau who catches the eye most of all. He arrived in the Pipe yard from France over the summer and, on the face of it, hasn’t really acclimatised as yet, but there are extenuating circumstances. On both occasions, Katkeau has looked set to play a much bigger hand in the finish before tactics or a blunder have seen to his chances, most recently over C&D on Boxing Day when a rapid move towards the end of the back straight took its toll and, to add insult to injury, he clattered two out. As well as the visual impression left, it should be noted that Katkeau has been very prominent in the betting for both starts in Britain so far- as we saw demonstrated yesterday with Ballynagour, when the Pipe yard put their faith in one to such a strong degree it usually pays to take notice.

    Kempton

    Back Milarrow @ 5.14/1 in the 13:30
    Back Rolling Aces @ 5.2 in the 15:50
    Back Katkeau @ 3.35 in the 16:25

    Milesey

  9. Milesey 4 years ago

    Trainer PAUL NICHOLLS on his runners today:

    “13:35 Chepstow – Pay The King

    I left him in the Albert Bartlett this week, purely as a precaution. It is clearly only a very tentative entry, though it would be nice to have the option of going to Cheltenham after this race. However, he is big and backward, a lovely chaser in the making, and very much next season’s horse. But he certainly goes nicely at home and looked a very promising horse when winning his bumper at Gowran in October on good ground. His future lies over fences, it will be very different conditions today and the merit of that win is hard to gauge – not that many have been out since, but the fifth has won subsequently – but we do like him.

    14:05 Kempton – Irish Saint

    We always thought of him as a chasing type rather than a Triumph Hurdle horse, but the manner of his Kempton win pleasantly surprised us. So we really had little option other than to step him up in class at Cheltenham last time. It is always disappointing to lose but the fact is that we were only beaten around two lengths off levels by the current Triumph Hurdle favourite Rolling Star, with the third 30 lengths away. This will tell us whether to go Cheltenham or not – or maybe wait for Aintree – but whatever happens here he really is a very promising chaser for the future. This does look a very competitive race though.

    14:40 Kempton – Grandioso

    It was good to see that the handicapper didn’t totally over-react to his 37 length win in a 2m4f handicap at Ludlow last time. It may seem strange to say this given how far he won, but I think a 10b rise makes his life difficult enough in handicaps. Because I think that was a pretty moderate race. But he could do no more than win as he did, and hopefully he is on a steep upward curve, so I thought we may as well take our chance in this valuable Grade 2 race. I think the drying ground will be in his favour here, though this clearly is a step up in class.

    15:15 Kempton – Lac Fontana

    We are really testing the water with him here. This horse was pretty smart over middle distances in France, and he ran a race full of promise at Newbury a fortnight ago. He met trouble in running but showed a really pleasing attitude, and a decent level of form, to pick up on the run-in to finish second to Chatterbox, who just happened to beat a certain My Tent Of Yours previously, though I wouldn’t read too much into that. But Ruby was pretty impressed with him after the race and said not to bother with a maiden hurdle. So if he wins or runs well here in this Grade 2 company, then the Triumph is still the plan. If he doesn’t, then we will maybe protect his novice status, and keep him for next season. Has jumped really nicely at home since Newbury.

    15:20 Chepstow – Doeslessthanme

    Has not displayed the consistency of last season, but ran his best race of the campaign when fourth in a 2m5f handicap at Warwick last time, where he travelled well before tiring. Although he has shown form over that sort of trip, I think this distance suits him better on soft ground and the handicapper has helped too by dropping him 2lb. Has each way claims.

    15.50 Kempton – Rolling Aces

    He hasn’t done too badly since being beaten by a certain Rocky Creek on his point debut, and we have had this race in mind for him ever since he won over 2m5f at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He beat Opening Batsman by 11 lengths day, who went on to frank the form next time and re-opposes on 9lb better terms here. The step up to 3m will be in his favour – he stayed 2m6f110yd well when winning a very competitive Newbury handicap in December, a race that has worked out very well – and I fancy him to run a big race here. Has really pleased me at home since Wincanton.

    15:55 Chepstow – Landscape

    Showed improved form when winning at Taunton in December, and we had to take our chances in running him the following weekend off his old mark. The race probably came too soon, but even if it hadn’t then we had little chance against a blot on the handicap in Gevrey Chambertin. But he still ran well in fourth, tiring late on. I’d like to think he still has improvement in him after just five hurdling starts. He ideally wants further but everyone knows how testing Chepstow gets, and James takes off a very handy 7lb.

    17:00 Kempton – Black Cow

    He goes nicely at home but like all my bumper runners he will need the run and the experience, as I let the racecourse tell me about my horses in this sphere, not the gallops. And looking at the likes of Carlton Jack in here, this will probably take a fair bit of winning as well. But I hope he can give a good account of himself.”

    Milesey

  10. Milesey 4 years ago

    (NAP) Brick Red in the 15:15 Kempton @ 4.0 (NAP)

    Milesey

    • Milesey 4 years ago

      Brick Red hasn’t come the traditional route to the Dovecote, and isn’t a sexy, lightly-raced novice with an exotic history. He’s a hardened campaigner who made his hurdles debut almost a year ago, and has shown a liking for a sharp 2 miles on a flat, right-handed track. His impressive win in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh early this month is without doubt the strongest form on offer here, and he has ideal conditions to repeat that performance. Unlike Lac Fontana and Black Spirit, he doesn’t hold fancy entries in Grade 1 company at Cheltenham, with the County Hurdle his sole option. That has clearly put punters off him, but it really shouldn’t, as he’ll surely be primed for a big run, and while unlikely to take another leap forward in form terms, already has a comfortable cushion based on the published ratings. He’s a massive 27 lbs clear of Lac Fontana on the figures, even when taking weight-for-age and penalties into account, and simply should not be a bigger price than that rival.

      Of the others, former Hunt Cup winner Forgotten Voice had his stamina stretched when a fair fourth on his handicap bow over C&D last time. He will need a sharp 2m to be seen to best effect over hurdles, and today’s better ground will help him get home, but he really can’t be supported until showing he can channel his energy more efficiently. Black Spirit showed his best form on the Flat last autumn and has been nibbled at for the Supreme Novices’ on the back of positive home reports. Barry Geraghty will be otherwise engaged for that race, so Andrew Tinkler gets a feel of him today. He’s not one to dismiss for that reason, but faces a stiff task on his first try over hurdles. That comment applies also to Figaro, for whom a long absence and lack of any big-race entries are both significant negatives. It’s interesting that Alan King pitches Fair Trade into this race, as he’s likely to blow a potentially handicap mark if going close, but is another whose form is likely to take off at some stage this spring. All in all, though, Brick Red looks much the safest bet.

      Milesey

  11. Milesey 4 years ago

    MARKET MOVERS
    ————–

    Chepstow
    13:35
    Pay The King 1.77 in to 1.58

    14:10
    Saffron De Cotte 3.05 out to 3.8
    De La Bech 7.4 in to 5.3

    14:45
    Presence Felt 4.7 out to 5.9
    Samingarry 10.0 in to 7.2

    15:20
    Oh Crick 8.0 in to 5.6
    Renard 10.5 in to 7.6
    Ballygarvey 5.0 out to 7.8
    Doeslessthanme 6.2 out to 9.0

    15:55
    Landscape 3.75 out to 4.9
    All Annelena 9.2 in to 7.4

    16:30
    Autumn Haze 25.0 in to 16.0

    17:05
    Allow Dallow 1.64 out to 2.2
    Louis Phillipe 14.0 in to 7.0

    Kempton
    13:30
    Lexicon Lad 10.51 in to 6.0
    Storming Gale 4.97 out to 6.4
    Midnight Sail 10.03 in to 7.2
    Filbert 6.3 out to 8.2

    14:05
    Lunique 4.3 out to 5.3

    14:40
    Molotof 2.1 out to 2.42
    Theatre Guide 11.7 in to 8.6

    15:15
    Las Fontana 3.75 in to 2.96

    15:50
    Wyck Hill 3.9 out to 4.5
    Rolling Aces 4.5 out to 5.5
    Same Difference 14.0 in to 9.4
    Opening Batsman 11.0 out to 17.5

    16:25
    Katkeau 4.0 in to 2.98
    God Of The Kop 7.4 out to 9.2
    Gormanstown Cuckoo 29.0 in to 17.5

    17:00
    Beat That 2.77 in to 2.02
    Carlton Jack 4.74 out to 7.4

    Lingfield
    13:20
    Aryal 2.22 in to 1.64

    13:55
    Rich Again 8.0 in to 6.8

    14:30
    Farmleigh Boy 2.7 out to 3.4
    Ladies Are Forever 10.0 in to 7.2

    15:05
    Tinshu 16.5 out to 23.0

    15:40
    Big Sylv 2.62 in to 2.26

    16;15
    Stentorian 3.25 out to 4.4
    Pahente 5.8 in to 4.9
    The Holyman 6.6 in to 5.0

    16:50
    My Son Max 3.7 out to 5.4

    Fairyhouse
    13:00
    Dogora 2.32 in to 1.96
    South South West 11.0 out to 19.5

    13:30
    Glens melody 2.4 in to 2.0
    Tasitiocht 3.4 out to 4.5

    14:00
    Forever Gold 12.0 in to 9.0

    14:35
    Prince De Beauchene 2.11 in to 1.79

    15:10
    Marsonnien 3.05 in to 2.42

    16:20
    Milan bound 4.7 in to 3.4

    Milesey

  12. Neverwins 4 years ago

    Anu suggestions for a lucky 15 today? Thanks and cheers for all your work.

  13. Sean Ireland 4 years ago

    TAMMYS HILL the horse i was told to back at cheltenham is running today in the 3.45 at fairyhouse.odds for todays race are a bit slim though at 4/6 but he is the class act in the field.

  14. Guido 4 years ago

    hava go Mileseys hot 3 Pay the King, Irish Saint and Molotov (as Axl wid sing “I’m a Molotov cocktail with a match to throw” 😉

  15. Milesey 4 years ago

    HORSE RACING

    SUNDAY 23RD FEBRUARY 2013
    ——————-

    NAAS 3.35
    ———-
    Defy Logic is from the family of top-class chaser Strong Promise, and looks a bright talent, as he showed when sauntering clear on hurdles bow at Fairyhouse recently. Plenty more to come, and the one to beat now.

    Don Cossack created a big impression when flooring rivals on hurdles debut at Navan (2m) in November. Not quite met expectations in 2 runs since, but dangerous to dismiss at this level of competition.

    Moscow Mannon was a smart bumper performer who ended last term with a good fourth in Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, and had no trouble beating The Paparrazi Kid on hurdles debut at Navan. Sure to improve.

    Art of Logistics won latter start in bumpers, and looked promising when scoring over hurdles at Down Royal in November. Just a respectable third of 6 to Un Atout over C&D last time, however.

    The Tullow Tank was runner-up in sole start in points last spring, and made a promising debut over timber behind Urano at Leopardstown last month. Will do better, but looks to face a stiff task in this company.

    Annie Power is unbeaten in 5 starts, leaving Jim Bolger prior to completing the hat-trick in match at Listowel in September. Never off the bridle in 2 hurdle victories, and one to take very seriously again.

    Diplomat was useful on Flat, winning twice in 2012. Ran well despite not settling fully in a 17-runner juvenile at Leopardstown in December, and will improve if learning to conserve his energy better.

    VERDICT:Defy Logic looked out of the top drawer when winning at Fairyhouse on his debut over hurdles, and is preferred to Annie Power and Don Cossack in a cracking race of its type.

    FONTWELL 3.45
    ————–
    Brampour struck up a fine partnership with this rider last term, the highlight being win in Greatwood Hurdle. Got bogged down on heavy last twice and contender while ground dries out. Should stay this far.

    Bergo has a prolific strike-rate over jumps and was fourth in Aintree Grade 1 chase when last seen in that sphere. Campaigned in good staying Flat races in 2011. More needed back hurdling after long absence.

    Dark Lover is a smart performer who has won 4 of his first 6 starts over hurdles, including a pair of big-field Cheltenham handicaps. Fine effort in the Betfair Hurdle latest and strong contender up in trip.

    Meister Eckhart landed 2 bumpers for Charlie Swan and a heavy-ground novice hurdle (2½m) in 2011. Improved efforts in 3m graded races after and interesting back from absence for new yard.

    Prospect Wells has translated smart Flat form to hurdles, better than ever when neck second to Zarkandar on return at Wincanton. Failed to stay 25f last time and this interim trip more suitable.

    Valmari is pretty useful when jumping holds up over fences, winning twice this season. Well below form at Ludlow last time, though, and set to fall short back over hurdles.

    VERDICT: Bergo and especially Meister Eckhart are interesting classy jumpers returning from absences, but Paul Nicholls holds the aces and Dark Lover can give the Betfair Hurdle form an early boost with victory up in trip. Stablemate Brampour should also come to the fore back on a sounder surface.

    Fontwell 2.40
    POUNGACH
    Dropped in grade for this race, after finishing a distant 5th last time out. Produces the form which saw him win a novices group 2 last year would be good enough today to win this race.

    NAAS 2.00
    UPSIE
    Makes her hurdling debut for trainer Wllie Mullins, champion jockey AP McCoy on board, as this winner of 2 french bumpers looks to get off to a good start for the Mullins yard.

    NAAS 2,30
    MIKAEL D’HAGUENET
    Ruby Walsh AND Willie Mullins, match made in Irish heaven. When it comes to Irish racing this double act is deadly, Even before you get to talk about the horse who is very very classey, and should have little difficulty in this field today.

    NAAS 4.10
    CALL THE POLICE
    Walsh AND Mullins again, horse has some very very high class form, should be fine with the drop back to 2m today, a very good field in this race though so going to be tough.

    ———————————–
    SUNDAY FOOTBALL

    Swansea City vs Bradford City, Capital One Cup Final, Sun 16:00 BST, Live on Sky Sports 1

    Match Odds: Swansea 1.4, Bradford 9.4, the draw 5.2

    As cup finals go, Swansea City vs Bradford City may not be one of the most glamorous in recent years, but it is surely one of the most romantic. Ten years ago the Swans nearly went out of business, and they narrowly avoided slipping out of the Football League. Now they are an established Premier League club, and they have a golden opportunity to win their first ever major trophy.

    Bradford have endured a painful slide down the English football pyramid – they were relegated from the Premier League in 2001, and the Bantams have been stuck in League Two since 2007. This season they have dumped Premier League outfits Wigan, Arsenal and Aston Villa out of this competition, but I suspect beating Swansea at Wembley may prove a bridge too far.

    I would never wish to detract from what’s been an extraordinary achievement by Bradford, but it’s worth analysing their giant-killing efforts. They beat a weakened Wigan side on penalties after a sterling rearguard action. They then overcame an Arsenal team that missed some glaring opportunities and never really got to grips with the physical nature of Bradford’s play. Manager Phil Parkinson deserves massive credit for exploiting Aston Villa’s weaknesses in the semi-final – three of Bradford’s four goals over the two legs came from set-pieces (Villa can’t defend corners of free-kicks), and Villa’s youngsters were hustled and harried until they crumbled. That said, Villa squandered a hatful of chances in both legs.

    Swansea’s game is based on ball retention, clever movement and precise attacking thrusts, and on a big Wembley pitch I think Bradford will struggle to contain their opponents. The Bantams’ prowess at set-pieces will be somewhat negated by the presence of dominant Swansea defender Ashley Williams, and even though his usual centre-back partner Chico is injured, potential replacements Garry Monk and Kyle Bartley are both decent in the air.

    Bradford have profited from poor finishing by their opponents in this cup run, but in Spanish forward Michu they may finally meet their match. The £2million bargain buy from Rayo Vallecano has scored 18 goals in 32 appearances this season, and he is one of the coolest finishers in the Premier League. He is worth a look in either the First Goalscorer or To Score markets.

    The Bantams have shown they are capable of rising to the occasion, but it’s worth noting they have won just three of their last 14 matches in all competitions. Swansea’s recent form is also patchy (just two wins in their last six games), but we can dismiss Sunday’s 5-0 defeat at Liverpool, as Swans boss Michael Laudrup rested most of his key players.

    Laudrup has made a huge impact since arriving at the Liberty Stadium to replace Brendan Rodgers. He has added more pace to Swansea’s attacking play, and has shown on several occasions that he is tactically astute. The perfect example of this was the second leg of the semi-final against Chelsea, which saw the Swans consistently allow the West Londoners to bring the ball out from the back, before frustrating them with a perfectly organised midfield and defence. Laudrup has vast experience from his playing days, and as a manager he has contested three cup finals, winning two of them.

    Unlike Arsenal and Aston Villa, Swansea aren’t a soft touch, and I can’t see them failing to make their superior technical ability count. Swansea’s odds of 1.4 to win are prohibitive, but you can boost them by backing the Swans -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.08. If Swansea grab an early lead, I can see them shredding Bradford on the counter, so backing Laudrup’s men to win by at least two goals seems sensible.

    It’s also worth looking at backing Swansea/Swansea in the HT/FT market at 2.1. Swansea have won 13 games this season, and backing Swansea/Swansea has paid out in eight of them.

    ——————————-

    Manchester City v Chelsea, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1.
    Match Odds: Manchester City 1.98, Chelsea 4.3, The Draw 3.75.
    If this match has twice the excitement of the reverse fixture…it will still be extremely dull. November’s 0-0 at Stamford Bridge is a contender for the worst Premier League match of the season, and is best remembered as Rafael Benitez’s debut game, where he was met with a chorus of boos from home supporters.

    In fairness, Benitez was always going to be cautious at first. Roberto Di Matteo’s sacking was unquestionably harsh, but his side’s clear weakness was without the ball, particularly on the flanks. The wide midfielders didn’t offer the full-backs enough protection, and Benitez insisted upon structure and caution in his opening matches in charge (he started with two 0-0s) and then his side gradually opened out and became more attacking. Therefore, this match shouldn’t be quite as underwhelming as the reverse context, although with Manchester United so far ahead in the Premier League, this match doesn’t have the true feel of a second versus third clash.

    Roberto Mancini has three major selection decisions. The first is fitness-related – Vincent Kompany will return in place of Joleon Lescott if considered fit enough. The other two are more tactical – David Silva will definitely start on one flank, but James Milner or Samir Nasri could start on the opposite side. Nasri was criticised by Mancini this week for his lack of commitment, and Milner seems the more logical option, particularly as Mancini will be keen for Ashley Cole’s runs to be nullified.

    Upfront, there’s the usual debate – Edin Dzeko with Sergio Aguero just behind, or Aguero as the main striker with Carlos Tevez floating between the lines. The latter seems a better partnership, and is more logical against a Chelsea side lacking pace at centre-back.

    Benitez’s headline selection decision is upfront. He defended Fernando Torres’ performance in midweek, when Demba Ba was cup-tied for the Europa League game against Sparta Prague, but it’s difficult to see why he wouldn’t start Ba in this match.

    But more important is where Benitez uses Ramires. He could field the Brazilian in a central midfield position, or use him on the right of an attacking band of three, with Frank Lampard and John Obi Mikel in the centre. That would mean only using two of Eden Hazard, Oscar and Juan Mata – Oscar seems most likely to be dropped – and would say a lot about Benitez’s attacking intentions. At centre-back, David Luiz and Branislav Ivanovic were rested in midweek, which probably indicates they’ll start here.

    The key to this match is the performance of two former Valencia teammates – Silva and Mata. They act as their sides’ chief playmaker – Silva is likely to drift inside from the left, while Mata might be used in a more central role, but they both provide a major creative threat from between the lines. Coping with them will be crucial – both managers will urge their sides to remain compact, and restrict the space between defence and midfield, which could lead to a cautious performance from both sides.

    An important factor to consider, however, is City’s rest ahead of this game. Both these sides were eliminated from the Champions League at the group stage, but while Chelsea had the consolation of the Europa League, City were out of Europe entirely. That means that while Chelsea have less than 72 hours to prepare for this match, plus a journey up the M1, City have had a free week. This is often considered purely in terms of fitness, but tactically it can have an impact too – Mancini will have been preparing his troops for the specific task of facing Chelsea. With that in mind, backing City at anything above 2.0 looks good.

    But I’d recommend backing under 2.5 goalsmore – considering the previous meeting and the natural caution of both coaches, 2.22 is a fantastic price.

    ————————————

    Sunday, 1.30pm Kick Off
    Newcastle 2.16 v Southampton 3.7; The Draw 3.6

    Newcastle have won seven and lost none of their last eight Premier League home games against Southampton and have scored at least once in 11 of their 12 Premier League matches against the Saints at St James’.

    However, Southampton have lost only once – against Manchester United at Old Trafford – since Mauricio Pochettino took charge and were mightily impressive 3-1 winners over Man City last time out. The Geordies look way too short at odds of 2.16 and can be taken on.

    ————————————–

    SIX Nations RUGBY

    Scotland v Ireland

    Scotland produced a very encouraging win over Italy in their last outing which demonstrated their attacking prowess. Four tries took their tally to six from their two games which is the best in the competition. Interim coach Scott Johnson has already started to stamp his authority on the side and the pace and finishing of Stuart Hogg and Tim Visser can cause Ireland problems.

    Declan Kidney’s team started with a win in Wales but this was negated by their defeat to England. Injuries to key players such as Jonny Sexton and Simon Zebo were just as damaging as the result and could prove costly during the rest of the tournament.

    Recent history certainly favours the Irish with ten wins from their last 11 Six Nations meetings. But I think that current form and circumstances could provide the Scots with a rare win at a decent price. Scotland’s attacking game will prove a real test for the Irish and the depleted visitors could easily come unstuck at Murrayfield.

    Back Scotland to win at 2.44

    Milesey

  16. Milesey 4 years ago

    HORSE RACING

    SUNDAY 24th FEBRUARY 2013
    ——————-

    NAAS 3.35
    ———-
    Defy Logic is from the family of top-class chaser Strong Promise, and looks a bright talent, as he showed when sauntering clear on hurdles bow at Fairyhouse recently. Plenty more to come, and the one to beat now.

    Don Cossack created a big impression when flooring rivals on hurdles debut at Navan (2m) in November. Not quite met expectations in 2 runs since, but dangerous to dismiss at this level of competition.

    Moscow Mannon was a smart bumper performer who ended last term with a good fourth in Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, and had no trouble beating The Paparrazi Kid on hurdles debut at Navan. Sure to improve.

    Art of Logistics won latter start in bumpers, and looked promising when scoring over hurdles at Down Royal in November. Just a respectable third of 6 to Un Atout over C&D last time, however.

    The Tullow Tank was runner-up in sole start in points last spring, and made a promising debut over timber behind Urano at Leopardstown last month. Will do better, but looks to face a stiff task in this company.

    Annie Power is unbeaten in 5 starts, leaving Jim Bolger prior to completing the hat-trick in match at Listowel in September. Never off the bridle in 2 hurdle victories, and one to take very seriously again.

    Diplomat was useful on Flat, winning twice in 2012. Ran well despite not settling fully in a 17-runner juvenile at Leopardstown in December, and will improve if learning to conserve his energy better.

    VERDICT:Defy Logic looked out of the top drawer when winning at Fairyhouse on his debut over hurdles, and is preferred to Annie Power and Don Cossack in a cracking race of its type.

    FONTWELL 3.45
    ————–
    Brampour struck up a fine partnership with this rider last term, the highlight being win in Greatwood Hurdle. Got bogged down on heavy last twice and contender while ground dries out. Should stay this far.

    Bergo has a prolific strike-rate over jumps and was fourth in Aintree Grade 1 chase when last seen in that sphere. Campaigned in good staying Flat races in 2011. More needed back hurdling after long absence.

    Dark Lover is a smart performer who has won 4 of his first 6 starts over hurdles, including a pair of big-field Cheltenham handicaps. Fine effort in the Betfair Hurdle latest and strong contender up in trip.

    Meister Eckhart landed 2 bumpers for Charlie Swan and a heavy-ground novice hurdle (2½m) in 2011. Improved efforts in 3m graded races after and interesting back from absence for new yard.

    Prospect Wells has translated smart Flat form to hurdles, better than ever when neck second to Zarkandar on return at Wincanton. Failed to stay 25f last time and this interim trip more suitable.

    Valmari is pretty useful when jumping holds up over fences, winning twice this season. Well below form at Ludlow last time, though, and set to fall short back over hurdles.

    VERDICT: Bergo and especially Meister Eckhart are interesting classy jumpers returning from absences, but Paul Nicholls holds the aces and Dark Lover can give the Betfair Hurdle form an early boost with victory up in trip. Stablemate Brampour should also come to the fore back on a sounder surface.

    Fontwell 2.40
    POUNGACH
    Dropped in grade for this race, after finishing a distant 5th last time out. Produces the form which saw him win a novices group 2 last year would be good enough today to win this race.

    NAAS 2.00
    UPSIE
    Makes her hurdling debut for trainer Wllie Mullins, champion jockey AP McCoy on board, as this winner of 2 french bumpers looks to get off to a good start for the Mullins yard.

    NAAS 2,30
    MIKAEL D’HAGUENET
    Ruby Walsh AND Willie Mullins, match made in Irish heaven. When it comes to Irish racing this double act is deadly, Even before you get to talk about the horse who is very very classey, and should have little difficulty in this field today.

    NAAS 4.10
    CALL THE POLICE
    Walsh AND Mullins again, horse has some very very high class form, should be fine with the drop back to 2m today, a very good field in this race though so going to be tough.

    Goodluck with your selections 😉

    Milesey

    • Milesey 4 years ago

      HORSE RACING

      SUNDAY 24th FEBRUARY 2013

      NAAS 3.35
      Defy Logic 3.05 betfair

      FONTWELL 3.45
      Dark Lover 2.96 betfair

      Fontwell 2.40
      POUNGACH 2.14 betfair

      NAAS 2.00
      UPSIE 1.77 betfair

      NAAS 2,30
      MIKAEL D’HAGUENET 1.54 betfair

      NAAS 4.10
      CALL THE POLICE 2.4 betfair

      Milesey

  17. MUZZA 4 years ago

    Crap results in the racing today mate. I had 6 x 2nds!!

  18. Guido 4 years ago

    Milesey – where do ya get all of info your posting from?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 4 years ago

      Guido, it’s all Milesey’s own work – he’s a fast typer.

      • Milesey 4 years ago

        hahaha, i am actually, i can do a thousand words a minute 😉

        Milesey

  19. Danny 4 years ago

    howd ye go the day Milesey hope ye saw ma short but sweet australian soccer tips n write up easy money in the end I aim to please the sites all about folk helpn each other out and someone of your superior knowledge should excel in posting horse racing tips

    • Milesey 4 years ago

      was on the two home wins yes 😉 😉

      Milesey

  20. Danny 4 years ago

    aye good mate wan ma pals it the casino wis scunnered stacked up the table $50 ago most numbers covered ended up doon of the top of my head $3000 didnt bat an eye lid I indulged him the comforts of free bevy in the pearl room

    • Milesey 4 years ago

      still got this on the go for tonight:

      Bet Confirmation – LD************** – Internet Time of bet: 22/02/2013 23:45:26

      1 Flamengo RJ
      Olaria v Flamengo RJ
      (Full Time Result)
      23/02/2013
      None
      2/5
      To Run

      2 Newport County
      Newport County v AFC Telford
      (Full Time Result)
      23/02/2013
      None
      8/15
      Won

      3 Cliftonville
      Ballinamallard Utd v Cliftonville
      (Full Time Result)
      23/02/2013
      None
      4/5
      Won

      4 FC Porto
      FC Porto v Rio Ave
      (Full Time Result)
      23/02/2013
      None
      2/9
      To Run

      5 Bayern Munich
      Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen
      (Full Time Result)
      23/02/2013
      None
      1/6
      Won

      6 Western Sydney Wanderers
      Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory
      (Full Time Result)
      23/02/2013
      None
      1/2
      Won

      Bet Type 6 folds

      No of Bets

      Unit Stake

      Stake

      To Return

      Returns

      Milesey

      • Milesey 4 years ago

        £20 it returns £165.29

        I didn’t have £20 myself, thats just an example of what it returns to a stake.

        Milesey

  21. Milesey 4 years ago

    WGC Accenture Match Play

    3 up thru 13, and looking like going onto the 1/4 FINAL.

    Getting a lovely run for my money, Day is playing some amazing golf.

    Milesey

    —————————-

    Back Jason Day @ 61.0

    After a hugely exciting 2011 which included second placed finishes at the Masters and US Open, last year was a write-off for an injury-hit Jason Day. Thankfully, this young Aussie looks to be fit and back in form with two top-10s in three tournaments this year. A big hitter and fantastic putter, Day looks to have the goods for a strong run at Dove Mountain and at 60-1 we’re getting a nice price for a major talent.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 4 years ago

      Milesey, it’s been a strange old tournament so far. Nine out of 10 seeds out by the second round is why I never bet in it. Lowry’s impressed me so far but don’t know how he’s getting on and of course Poulter loves this format.

  22. Milesey 4 years ago

    Poulter is into the 1/4 final, Lowry is going out to McDowell, 3up thru 15.

    Milesey

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 4 years ago

      OK, McDowell’s a tough matchplay opponent too.

      • Milesey 4 years ago

        Playing the 1/4 Final matches alittle later, so will watch them after PRIZEFIGHTER…. have a good evening / night.

        Milesey

  23. Arnie 4 years ago

    Am on Hunter Mahan. He’s playing well also

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