FEB 19: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREVIEW

championsleaguetrophy

IN a repeat of last season’s tie Champions League favourites Bayern Munich go to Arsenal while Atletico Madrid head for AC Milan.

The Germans won 3-1 at the Emirates last time out and are no bigger than 1-4 at Stan James to KO the Gunners.

Their confidence is sky high and since losing to Man City – albeit in a dead group rubber – the Bundesliga leaders have won all nine games and by an aggregate of 16-0 over the last five.

Bayern are a biggest 4-5 with William Hill to win and it’s difficult to see past them. Arsenal rested players and still knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup at the weekend but they were lucky not to concede a few as their goal survived under ferocious pressure.

A year ago Bayern lost the second leg 2-0 at home through complaceny more than anything else but that will give Arsene Wenger some hope.

Olivier Giroud scored in both legs and is 11-4 at Paddy Power to hit the target tonight. First-scorer favourite is Bayern’s Mario Mandzukic at 9-2 with 888sport but if he doesn’t start I’ll be on Thomas Muller or Mario Gotze.

I’m convinced Atletico Madrid will knock out AC Milan but not sure if they’ll win in the San Siro.
Atletico are clearly the better and 2-5 favourites at Betfred and Coral to qualify.

However, they could shut up shop in Italy, take a draw and expect to win the tie at fortress Vicente Calderon.

Injury-hit Milan have lost just one in five since Clarence Seedorf took charge but performances haven’t been great and it needed a late wonder goal by Mario Balotelli to beat Bologna last time out.

Atletico will be well backed at 5-4 with firms such as McBookie but I’m on draw no bet at 4-7 with Stan James for a bit of insurance.

Diego Costa is the man to focus on in the scorer markets and is 15-8 at McBookie and BetVictor to net at any time.

Recommended Bets

Bayern Munich
(4-5, William Hill)

Atletico Madrid draw no bet
(4-7, Stan James)

Costa to score
(15-8, McBookie, BetVictor)

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23 Comments
  1. Ryzo 4 years ago

    I’m not sure about Atletico shutting up shop in Italy. I’d be more inclined to think diego Simeone will go for the jugular and score vital away goals. One thing certain is that AC Milan will concede chances and they will also struggle to create anything themselves against a disciplined side. Milan dominated play a couple of weeks back in the San Siro against Torino but one thing I noticed was how vulnerable they looked when Torino, with Cerci upfront, hit them on the counter and Torino should have been 2-0 up at halftime, Milan managed a point in the end. Last Friday Milan battled against unfashionable Bologna but again looked worryingly average before a worldy from inconsistent Mario secured 3. Take into account their home form in the group stage and I watched a fairly average Celtic side enjoy a lot of possession without having a cutting edge in the San Siro before Milan scraped a deflected opener and a second not long after. Take into account diego simeones master tactical ability against an inexperienced coach in Seedorf, Atletico dont possess world superstars (all be it they are quality players) but they are one hell of a unit and when they go 1-0 up they tend to kill the game effectively.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is Atletico are fantastic value against a below par Milan side!

    Atletico win – 23/20

    Arda Turan anytime scorer – 9/2

    Atletico win and under 2.5 – 3/1

  2. Neil 4 years ago

    Diego Costa anytime – 15/8 with BetVictor

    Put simply, great value for a man with 26 goals this season.

  3. Brian kakwaya 4 years ago

    Bayern -1 Ss

  4. ozcjfc 4 years ago

    I can see these games being very tight. So I’m backing both home sides +1

  5. alva glen 4 years ago

    Same as last night for me 2 away wins.Tried to do an A/T scorer win cast double last night with Hills they would not take it.Who knows if any bookies takes accas on this type of bet ?

    • Buck 4 years ago

      Sky bet do this my friend you can do doubles trebles accas etc. I used it last night and got 5/1 on Ibra and Messi win cast so was a great night for me last night.

  6. Lossie jim 4 years ago

    2 down, 2 to go in my CL 4 aways!!

  7. craigyboy 4 years ago

    I’ve doubled up the away wins tonight also. I guess when you see four champions league knockout games you don’t think four away wins but that’s exactly what could happen.

  8. David 4 years ago

    Yesterday treble made me smile all night.hope to continue in that vein.

  9. v07 4 years ago

    Don’t write Milan off so easily. In the past 2 seasons in 1st leg of the KO stage, Milan managed to beat 2 quality teams(Arsenal and Barca) 4-0 and 2-0 at home respectively.

  10. maxclover 4 years ago

    Diego costa First goal 1-20 minutes 10/1

  11. Lokti 4 years ago

    I think we’re being far too harsh on Arsenal. I’ve got little doubt Bayern will go through over-all but Arsenal are always good when their backs are against the wall and when everyone expects them to be beaten.

    With Koscielny and Mertesacker at centre half they’ve only ever lost about 4 games when both have started.

    Bearing in mind Arsenal’s experience from last year against Bayern, I’m certain they’ll look to shut up shop early doors as their priority will be to not concede as they know they have a brilliant away record in the Champions League and won in Munich last year. They don’t need to win this game to go through and not conceding rather than scoring has to be the priority here.

    Under 2.5 goals in a cagey game. 7/10 at Bet Victor. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Arsenal won.

    Every time I see Milan play in Serie A, they are absolutely dire. In the Champions League they are a wholly different proposition, particularly as this is all they have left to play for at the moment. I can see Balotelli inspiring them to get something out of the game. A/T scorer at 21/10 with a wee side bet on 1st scorer at 6/1.

  12. Lokti 4 years ago

    Argh. Correction! Under 2.5 goals is 5/4 at Bet Victor. My heid’s mince this morning.

  13. John T 4 years ago

    Mr F,

    I notice that if Bayern are backed on a 5 team accumulator in Ladbrokes, they are 11/10. With a few easier games such as Juventus, Porto and Lazio to win tomorrow, this can be quite a decent bet.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 4 years ago

      John T, I noticed that too but I won’t be touching any side in the Europa League until I can establish who’s putting out a string side. There will be a lot of reserve teams in action tomorrow.

  14. TheAnswer 4 years ago

    4 away wins in CL?! surely not

  15. Neil 4 years ago

    Glad you’re thinking along the lines of Costa, Mr F.

    Even without considering Milan’s (at times) pantomime defence, nearly 2/1 for a player who has 26 goals this season to find the back of the net is excellent value.

    I’m not convinced Atletico will go there and do the job as comfortably as many think (personally I think 5/4 is about right for Atletico) but I can’t ignore the Costa value. As with any good value bet, win or lose it’s a great bet.

  16. Grant 4 years ago

    Giroud didn’t score in both legs, Podolski got the goal at home and Giroud scored a few mins in at the Allianz. I went both that’s the only reason I’m certain.

  17. sloanmeister 4 years ago

    Thanks to Kartman for the basketball tip, got on khimki moscow to win outright and on the hcap. Won by 20 points :) Sets me up nicely for a tonight, going with bayern to win to nil and athletico madrid dbl.

  18. chancer 4 years ago

    Clean sweep Mr fixit
    made a goof day better great site u have here
    followed the tips for horses/ice hockey & now the football has come in as well. HAPPY DAYS

  19. Rustychest 4 years ago

    Don’t you just love the Champions League :)

    Congratulations Mr. F, all your CL recommended bets came through

    Bayern Munich
    Atletico Madrid
    Costa to score

    Good stuff :)

  20. Lossie jim 4 years ago

    Just over £400 for £20 for four always in the CL!!

  21. GREGGE 4 years ago

    Very well done MrF they were all great picks, I went with various double chance and win bets and shrewd and studied at that as finding the time sometimes can be difficult here, however I cashed in on Munich and Madrid winning, waiting on a few matches on Thursday with cash out sitting pretty on bet365, really looking forward for your main picks for Thursday and yes I understand the Europa matches are a lot harder to predict but I will have the upmost faith in your picks as always and you are on a fantastic roll. Goodluck for then and congrats on a fantastic evening’s tipping!!

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