FRIDAY the 13th didn’t turn out to be a horror show for punters but there was no love in the air on Valentine’s Day.
Hibs’ win at Rangers on Friday lined thousands of punters’ pockets and while they weren’t emptied on Saturday results weren’t great.
If you play with level stakes you’ll be fine and overall and I was 4pts down for the day after taking into account my winning Euro treble on Bayern -1, Real -1 and Sevilla and first-scorer Trixie which was Yann Kermorgant, Peter Crouch and Darren Bent – I advised those three players in my FA Cup preview post.
Arbroath beat the Super Single but I hoped some covered when they led 1-0 – I was at a game so couldn’t advise it.
Bournemouth’s surprise draw at home to Huddersfield in the Championship killed a Top Treble that also featured Stranraer and Queen of the South. Watford’s last-gasp winner at Bolton beat me for a draws treble but two just about covered the stake.
I’ve picked what I believe is a good Super Single for Sunday – but they’re away and they’re French so that will put some people off.
Guingamp are a team many people will have backed in recent games and they travel to bottom-of-the-table Metz having lost just once in 15 games. That was to Monaco in the League Cup and they’ve beaten Monaco and PSG in the league in that spell.
Metz on the other hand haven’t won in their last 16 in 90 minutes and are without a goal in their previous in normal time. Guingamp won 5-2 on their last trip to Metz a couple of years ago but lost 1-0 at home when they met earlier in the season.
That was their only in 13 again their rivals so while head-to-head results strongly favour Metz but form is weighted heavily in Guingamp’s favour. In fact only Lyon (23) have picked up more points in Ligue 1 than Guingamp (20) since December 2014.
For that reason I’m willing to take a chance on Guingamp at 19-10 with BetVictor and for those of a more nervous disposition consider Guingamp draw no bet at 19-20 with Ladbrokes.
Other sides I thought about were Lyon at Lorient but that’s the 8pm French game we often fear, Villarreal at a struggling Rayo and Atletico Madrid at Celta Vigo.
The FA Cup ties again didn’t go to form on Sunday and some people will fancy more shocks with Bradford at home to Sunderland and Middlesbrough at Arsenal. Aston Villa-Leicester is tough to call with Paul Lambert having left the club and Tim Sherwood appointed and I’m tempted not to touch the games.
In Scotland Aberdeen should close the gap on Celtic at the top to three points by winning at a Hamilton side still without a victory since Alex Neil left the club. The Dons are a best 10-11 at Paddy Power.
I’m starting the Top treble with Torino at home to a Cagliari side who have lost three of the last four and haven’t won away since October.
Torino are in fine form with four successive wins including a 5-1 thumping of Sampdoria in their last home outing. They defeated Cagliari away in September but on the downside have lost three in a row at home on the head to heads. Cagliari’s last six have been btts so Torino and btts is worth a look at 29-10 with Ladbrokes.
Add Roma who face a Parma side that’s suffered nine defeats out of 10 on the road and not won away to the capital side since 1987. In fact opta tell me Parma have a worse record against Roma than any other current Serie A team.
Roma have won four out of five against Parma at the Olympic Stadium and steadied the ship after a rough patch by beating Cagliari last time out.
Complete the treble with Barcelona -2 at home to Levante. Barca beat their visitors 5-0 away earlier in the season and it was 7-0 in the Nou Camp last campaign. In 19 meetings between the sides in Barcelona the home side have scored in them all – winning 16 and drawing three.
Levante have conceded an average of three goals on their Nou Camp visits and it’s not their favourite place to go.
I’ve decided to try to outdo Long-Shot Lee with an accumulator of my own that pays just over 10-1 and I’ll put goals tips on the new goals tips post.
3pts Super Single
2.5pts Top Treble
Barcelona -2 (4pm)
1pt long shot
Lyon draw no bet (8pm)
Atletico Madrid draw no bet (8pm)
(10-1, BetVictor, McBookie)
Super Single February record:
13 bets (6 winners, 5 losers, 2 void)
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