Dec 28: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

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TUESDAY was a 1pt profit for Johnb and he is now 53.4pts up for December.

He has two big prices for Wednesday and is also advising the double. Well done to everyone who posted winners on Tuesday.

Johnb’s Wednesday Tips

Leicester 12.55
Paddy The Dee Jay 8-1 NAP bet365

Drop down in distance is definitely what this horse needs and is sure to improve for it, the cheekpieces will help along with the jockey claim as the horse is already on a low mark.

Lingfield 3.30
Hyland Heather 10-1 NB Betvictor

I get the feeling with this horse there is a lot more to come and after a decent run last time after a break Wednesday could be the day with the cheekpieces back on.

0.5pt ew double 89-1 Coral

Antepost Tips

  • 1000 Guineas 2017 – PROMISE TO BE TRUE 20-1 Betfred (now 25-1)
  • 2000 Guineas 2017 – CHURCHILL 20-1 bet365 (now 6-4)
  • 2017 Derby – CHURCHILL 33-1 Racebets (now 7-1)
  • 2000 Guineas 2017 – BLUE POINT 14-1 racebets (now 33-1)

Johnb says: “I have already advised Churchill for next year’s 2000 Guineas & Derby – he has been really impressive this season and my view is he will get even better next year.

“Blue Point on the other hand is harder to call for how he will progress next year. If he trains on then in my view it’s a straight fight between Blue Point & Churchill but in the Derby Churchill is the only horse for me – he gives me the same excitement as Golden Horn did.

“But to answer my question earlier the most impressive horse I have seen this year is BLUE POINT with Churchill and Annie Power a close second and third.”

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79 Comments
  1. Profile photo of leando
    leando 12 months ago

    12.30 Catt
    Moon over Rio 9/2

  2. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 12 months ago

    Johnb’s Stat for the Flat

    Lingfield
    1:45
    Charismatic 11/4

    Ralph Beckett horses up in distance 92 winners from 365 runs which is a 25% strike rate
    A/E 1.20 which means following this stat is profitable and shows a 38% profit

    My very first Stat for the Flat won on Monday, advised at 14/1 and got backed down to 11/2

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 12 months ago

      Also like to remind people that just because a system has been profitable in the past doesn’t mean it will in the future
      Also win or lose this won’t be counted towards my stats win or lose

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 12 months ago

      It should say Charismatic Man

    • Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
      jazzerbhoy 12 months ago

      I think it’s a great addition Johnb, and thank you. It was way to complicated for me to try and work it out, but the way it worked out on Monday maybe a little additional pot to have a go with. No harm done n trying it out for small stakes. Good luck with your pics tomorrow everyone.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 12 months ago

        There are 100’s of Stat based systems out there, some quite profitable
        Just trying to advertise the most profitable ones as some people like those bets
        Trainers and Jockeys are creatures of habit, when something works they stick to it

  3. Profile photo of elvis parsley
    elvis parsley 12 months ago

    Last year don poli won the Lexus at 4-6.
    Tomorrow he is 10-1.
    How has he gone so backwards in a year, or is this the renaissance of the don ???

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 12 months ago

      I don think Djakadam will be fully fit and I think Outlander at 10/1 has to be placed with a reasonable chance of winning

  4. Profile photo of klums
    klums 12 months ago

    1:45 LINGFIELD
    ALFREDO 7/4 LADBROKES

    2:35 LEICESTER
    ROCKPORTIAN – 7/4 WILLIAM HILL

    3:00 – LEOPORDSTOWN
    DJAKADAM – 15/8 WILLIAM HILL
    NAP/NB

  5. Profile photo of rale
    rale 12 months ago

    Missy Tata, Lim 2:15, 11/10 Bet365
    D. Jacob is traveling to Ireland for that one ride.

  6. Profile photo of albion
    albion 12 months ago

    Hello everyone. Looking to contribute to this thread in 2017. Currently work for Hills as a shop manager (or customer experience manager from Jan 1st) and love all things Jumps. Fan of the flat also but am a flat cap at heart.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 12 months ago

      At least you kept your job. Look forward to your comments.
      Goodnight all.

      • Profile photo of albion
        albion 12 months ago

        Cheers Mr F… yourself, Jordan, Scott, Greg, HullShaker, Radu, Webbo, Hampy, and many more on the forum are some of the most knowledgeable punters I’ve seen anywhere, either in shop or online. Cracking website.

  7. Profile photo of albion
    albion 12 months ago

    Having spent the last few hrs looking at the Lexus, I’ve swerved completely swerved it and gone with a small ew on a Webber runner in the 1:45 Lingfield. Some might say Paul paid for Christmas with Miss Tongabezi at Huntingdon on Boxing Day. But not me. Word is he wants another night out before new year. And that Tindaro the horse to pay for it. Creditable finish on his last AW start only 5 yrs ago. Not without a chance in a race full of donkeys.

    Tindaro 1:45 Lingfield.. 0.5 pt ew

  8. Profile photo of albion
    albion 12 months ago

    Snow Falcon 1:50 Leopardstown @9/2. Can’t see it outside the 1st three. Hopefully wins.

  9. Profile photo of albion
    albion 12 months ago

    Smashing for Mighty Mouse @66/1 in the Lexus. Highly unlikely to win but if a few up front make hard work of it i could see this one pinching a place (Betfair going 33/1 four places I’m told) Mouse stepped him up on seasonal debut to this trip.. didn’t do much.. but can he do better tomorrow @33/1. Let’s find outhe.

    Smashing ew with Betfair @33/1..

    4 places.

  10. Profile photo of bpabsie
    bpabsie 12 months ago

    Charismatic man now 2/1
    Glad I got on yesterday

  11. Profile photo of nezhambo
    nezhambo 12 months ago

    Hi Johnb I see Hyland Heather is a big driter this morning available at up to 14-1 & 12-1 generally any reasoning Regards Nez Hambo

  12. Profile photo of dsg
    dsg 12 months ago

    Good morning. been following this thread for the last couple yrs and might i add this has been excellent for the betting community and the detailed approach some of you use is refreshing. putting up my tips for the 1st time to actually seenhow i do posting them publicly.

    Sir Note 12 55
    Great Link 1 25
    Alfredo 1 45
    Virnon 2 10

    Good luck for the betting day ahead.

  13. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    Morning all, on johnbs and doing a £3 trixie of mullins/walsh @ Leopardstown 12.15/13.50 & 15.00 races. Good Luck All🍀🏇

  14. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    Morning all

    Put up TIMOTEO last night advised take 9/2 it is now 5/2

    just got win now

    gl

  15. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 12 months ago

    test

  16. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    Nap won yesterday so profit again

    LEICESTER

    14.00 DARTFORD WARBLER ..5/1..

    14.35 WILLIE BOY .. 15/2 .. E/W

    15.40 TIMOTEO .. 9/2 .. **** NAP **** advised last evening now 5/2

    CATTERICK

    14.10 THANKYOU VERY MUCH .. 7/4.. ** NB **

    14.10 GALROS LADY … 7/2..

    gl all

    • Profile photo of red devil
      red devil 12 months ago

      Busstop, not trying to be funny but i followed your 6 tips yesterday and only one won at 6/5. How can you claim to have been in profit? Apologies if i’ve missed something i had had a few to drink! Good luck today anyway.

      • Profile photo of
        12 months ago

        red devil i have always said from day one if i do a nap a put a bigger bet on it which ensures a profit on the day.

        a lot of the guys work to level stakes but if you fancy a horse more strongly than the rest it makes sense to me to put a bigger bet on it thats why its your nap in the first place.

        On days when i dont nap then i am doing level stakes on all my horses .Trouble is then people ask me for a nap anyway.

        i actually got 7/4 for my nap yesterday which was the price when i put up.

        like todays nap i have got 9/2 which was the price when i put it up last night.

        but my NAP always covers all my other bets when i do one

        hope this helps

        gl

        • Profile photo of red devil
          red devil 12 months ago

          Ok well that makes sense. You must have had a big bet on your nap to cover those 5 losers then so well done you. Not brave enough to go big on these short priced horses myself.

          • Profile photo of
            12 months ago

            no prob easy really 60 on nap 30 on nb and 4 x 10 on the others 130 on

            60 at 7/4 165 return

            not saying thats what i put on but thats how it works but if nap loses you then need 2 of the others to win to make a profit.

            gl

            • Profile photo of red devil
              red devil 12 months ago

              It Just seems very little reward for the risk, i have to be careful with my heart and your way of betting would probly kill me lol. I wish u luck anyway busstop.

              • Profile photo of
                12 months ago

                not really nap ensures profit and if others win then a lot more profit

                like other day nap won and 2 of the others won made big profit and thats what its all about

                even £35 profit on 130 is about 30% profit

  17. Profile photo of the ego
    the ego 12 months ago

    hoping jimron12 logs in today with something on prim and proper 12.10 lingield. 40-1 is my kind of price. ive backed AKURA in the first at catterick at a short price 6-1. im following albion and theplug with their big prices for today.

    • Profile photo of the ego
      the ego 12 months ago

      p.s 5-2 naps make me want to take a nap 😴😴😴

      • Profile photo of trotters
        trotters 12 months ago

        Take it then and give over!! Stop banging on about short priced naps! 5/2 is a great price if u can afford it lol.

        • Profile photo of
          12 months ago

          trotters ignore total aftertimer .take anything over even money anytime its profit

          wheels still turning but the hamsters dead

          gl

          • Profile photo of trotters
            trotters 12 months ago

            Yes bus i hear u pal
            But the hamster must not have a clue about betting mate! I made a wage off u yesterday as i said! 5/2 lol is a bad price!!!!! Huhh??

  18. Profile photo of theplug
    theplug 12 months ago

    sorry everyone I put up westerner point last night for tomorrow but ive just spotted the bloody horse won yesterday ,hoprfully I can make up for that today with lord windermere 33/1

  19. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    Morning all,

    After a poor day yesterday I am hoping to turn it around today with a handful of selections. It is vital that after a bad day you keep to stick to your guns and keep faith in your system so hopefully it will be normal service resumed. (Apologies for no write ups yesterday and late post today I was very busy yesterday).

    1.15 Lingfield – Re Run 2/1

    Re Run made his debut in a maiden at Ayr’s western meeting in September when he was well backed but disappointed. I had a word from a friend that he was well placed to win that day and he was well thought of and I’ve kept my eye on him ever since. On his next start he came a distance second at Newcastle to a very handy looking horse before being thrown in at listed level in France. As you know I like to follow horses in first time blinkers and today Re Run has the head gear applied. At around 2/1 this morning I’ll be having a small interest (1.5 points win)

    1.20 Leopardstown – Gangster 2/1

    Gangers ran a cracking race on chase debut last time at Punchestown, he pushed hot pot American Tom all the way to the line over a trip that was no doubt to short for him. He jumped fluently and efficiently that day and back up in trip today he looks like a stand out bet. He was tried in multiple grade 1 races as a hurdler and even sent off a skinny looking 15/2 for the Albert Bartlett and the festival after he hosed up in a Fairyhouse grade 3. I am hopeful of more progression from Gangster this season and I simply have to increase my stake today (15 points win)

    3.00 Leopardstown – Zabana 10/1 EW

    I think there is every chance of a big run from Zabana today in the Lexus chase. I put him up last time as a increased selection when he duly obliged at Gowran park (his trainer said after the race he still was not 100% fit but that he would now be spot on for the Lexus. Last season he won the Grade 1 noice at the Punchestown festival beating a number of top horses (including outlander) over 3 miles. Today he makes his first start since over what looks his ideal trip. At around 10/1 a small each way bet looks the order of the day (0.75points ew)

    Other bets:

    It’s a rare occasion but today I will also be putting up a short priced double from Leapardstown:

    12.15 – Montalbano 4/6
    3.35 – Carter Kay 1/2

    6/4 for the double.

    Both these horses I fancy strongly but are way to short to back on their own so it makes sense to wrap them in a double. I know that the Mullins team both think very strongly of them with a path to the festival in place for both. I will be playing a increased stakes double today given that confidence plus the form. (15 points at 6/4).

    Thanks and GL to all

    • Profile photo of
      12 months ago

      The double saves the day! And lands at 2.59/1 making it a profitable day (5.86 up). Unfortunately the gambler who had looked like he would win on the run it got caught late on- going down by 3/4 of a length…bugger!

      Hopefully that’s the end of the bad luck.

      Well done to all the winners. I saw a good mention for outlander as well which was a good call!

      More of the same tomorrow!

      Many thanks

  20. Profile photo of paddy irishman
    paddy irishman 12 months ago

    Favourite girl 16/1 ew 3.40 Leicester
    GL

  21. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 12 months ago

    A quick word on systems,you either back all the qualifiers for the system or none ,fyi also in the 1.45 George Baker lto winners on the all weather 30% strike rate 101 from 337 Alfredo 6/4
    Today I expect that given the connections of More of That today is his first real target 16/1 e/w because Djakadam is a better horse at home than he is over here ,if the money comes for MOT I’ll back him again GL.

  22. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 12 months ago

    2 small ew bets today and the double

    Outlander 3.00

    Reported to come out well last race and has his preferred ground

    De plotting shed 1.50

    Cannot see getting past vvm but at 25/1 much more value for this front runner

    Good luck all

  23. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    Hi everyone

    L 12.10 Fire Diamond
    L 12.45 Sidewinder
    L 1.45 Charismatic Man
    L 2.55 Noble Ballad

    Good luck everyone

    happy days

  24. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    fire diamond wins 3/1

    happy days

  25. Profile photo of the ego
    the ego 12 months ago

    my tip is a non runner so changing it to SEA LIGHT 12.50 lepordstown €100 e/w at 10-1.

    waiting for a tip off my brother for today but it will be just before the off as he needs to see it loading up. keep your eyes peeled everyone this one will be winning( his words not mine)

  26. Profile photo of the ego
    the ego 12 months ago

    my brothers just been told the owner has put 8k on AYE AYE winning this next one at lingfield. just had a nice bet on myself. sorry about the price

  27. Profile photo of quazeehorses
    quazeehorses 12 months ago

    Hi everyone I had royal vacation of Jb the new one and thistlecrack treble less said I guess but really gutted on that then pulled in back with noble endeavour didn’t post as I’ve not been to great on here so don’t want to let anyone down!
    Was just wondering anyone’s thoughts on DON POLI no one has sad a word last out didn’t like the ground fair hasn’t won since last years but good mark and poor form but 20-1 can I just ask your opinion of why he’s not even on the shortlist as of this moment I feel uneducated in my thinking any thoughts on DON POLI EW would be great from anyone
    Thanks

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 12 months ago

      Don Poli is hard to fancy after the last run, it was a really bad run and something must have been wrong, connections haven’t really said anything about it which worries me and he really has to be that price today,
      You never know he might be back to his best and would have a really big chance but it’s too much of a risk for me even at those odds
      Said last night I fancied Outlander and still feel the same, he has to be in the first three today

  28. Profile photo of waxi
    waxi 12 months ago

    Zarib—Leicester—3″10—- 9/4 Best bet

    Great site!

  29. Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
    jazzerbhoy 12 months ago

    What was that ? Sorry can’t remember nice going.
    Unlucky Johnb thought he had it there.

  30. Profile photo of the ego
    the ego 12 months ago

    WHOOOOSSSHHHH AY AY gets up in final strides hope u all followed. €850 on at 7-2 kind of makes it feel like a winner.

    VVD to score first in tonights game is my tip should be about 25-1??

    enjoy the rest of yr day regards rafe.

  31. Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
    Mr Fixit 12 months ago

    You tell your man then. If he’s not posting here I’m not interested.

  32. Profile photo of
    12 months ago

    im left with only 2 bets catterick off and dartford warbler now a non runner

    time for a pint

    gl all

  33. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 12 months ago

    That wasn’t a front running performance at all 🙈 Why race that far back!!

  34. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 12 months ago

    bull ride 2.25 blues dancer 2.50 Oceanus 2.55 artic skipper 3.00

  35. Profile photo of quazeehorses
    quazeehorses 12 months ago

    Thanks JohnB yea just too risky and no BJ cooper too ok il leave it and have a go EW on outlander appreciate the info!

  36. Profile photo of luke a
    luke a 12 months ago

    AlanM, I knew someone had tipped Vatican Hill, and just found it was you. I haven’t backed anything today, but that is a cracking 25/1 winner. Well done

  37. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 12 months ago

    Booom that’s better!!!!

  38. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 12 months ago

    Ew pick 25/1 now that’s a boom bastic.

  39. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 12 months ago

    that was strange, very strange
    Outlander was 33/1 with five to jump

  40. Profile photo of red devil
    red devil 12 months ago

    Thanks for talking up outlanders chances johnb. Happy with an 11/1 winner for the day.

  41. Profile photo of waxi
    waxi 12 months ago

    Zarib—leicester—3″10—9/4 best bet

    *****WINS*****

  42. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 12 months ago

    In case people are wondering why I didn’t tip Outlander after being confident he would be in the first three,
    That’s the reason, I never Tip horses I think will be placed, I always tip horses I think will win whether they are 1/1 or 200/1

    Outlander wasn’t strong enough to tip confidently for the win

  43. Profile photo of welshking888
    welshking888 12 months ago

    Brilliant from outlander. Well done all.

  44. Profile photo of quazeehorses
    quazeehorses 12 months ago

    Nice one johnB good man!! And DON POLI second won’t see those odds again cheers was on only small but happy days!

  45. Profile photo of spurs55
    spurs55 12 months ago

    thx everybody had a great day thanks to you all

    jb with outlander
    alanm vatican hill
    bozz Fire Diamond
    and Ay Ay
    shame could have put them in a L15 if i was a mind reader !!

    ps alanM
    i went for vatican hill anyway as sometimes i watch the horse number and draw sequence in the results of that day (never the same twice) so i looked at horse 1 or 10 with draws 6 or 2 might have been just luck i guess?
    mind you i did pick AY AY that way as well..who knows !!!

    cheers all

  46. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 12 months ago

    December 50.4pts up

    Southwell
    11:45
    Fern Owl 4/1 NAP bet365

    1:15
    Affair 12/1 NB skybet

    double 64/1 skybet

    Will post reasoning later

    • Profile photo of jcb
      jcb 12 months ago

      Hi JohnB,

      I was just wondering whether you could advise me regarding sectional timings.

      I’m looking to get involved in sectional timings and I know you use them. Could you please let me know where I can find out the sectional times? As in who provides them and where I can get them from?

      Thanks
      JCB

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 12 months ago

        I was using pro form but you pay for that and a friend of mine does it so I was using him but he isn’t open to the public yet
        But I have heard that Arc are having sectional timing available for all races on the all weather at Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton and it’s completely free which I think that will be the only free website to do it, Arc are doing it on at the races website

        • Profile photo of jcb
          jcb 12 months ago

          Pro form or Timeform?
          Both seem relatively expensive for what it is, but then again I don’t have time to do it myself…
          Do you feel like you get a genuine edge from sectional times?

          Yeah I’ve read about the AW timing but again that’s only for a few courses. Although can’t knock it as it’s free!

    • Profile photo of spurs55
      spurs55 12 months ago

      good to see jb on
      Fern Owl

      got 4-1 but dropping a bit now

      thx jb

  47. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 12 months ago

    Decent day 11/1 winner but a poor show from the other pick love it when a front runner is kept off the pace 🙈 Onto tomo……

    Jack Dillinger 12.50 12/1

    First time hood to eek out a bit
    More and get closer to the very short priced fav

    Footpad 2.30 14/1

    Been in decent form on heavy ground hopefully a spin on less testing may also get
    Him closer to the short priced hot pot

    Singles and a double all ew

    Good luck all

  48. Profile photo of red devil
    red devil 12 months ago

    Omg who tipped VVD first goal?? Thankyou!

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