Darts Tips: Premier League Darts Week 1 Tips

MRF_LockupDarts

AFTER getting through the difficult month of January, well since the World Championships, the top sixteen had a chance to elevate some ring rust at the PDC Masters.

The round robin Premier League season rolls around again with some new names, and familiar ones back in.

The field, if you had not seen it was the top-10 ranked players post World Championship. The format remains the same, best of 12 legs with the possibility of the draw.

  • Peter Wright v Michael Smith
  • Michael van Gerwen v James Wade
  • Phil Taylor v Raymond van Barneveld
  • Gary Anderson v Adrian Lewis
  • Robert Thornton v Dave Chisnall

*The player named on the left will throw first!

Odds correct at time of writing and subject to fluctuation

Peter Wright (6-5) v Michael Smith (7-4) – Draw price – 18-5

Head to head – no previous meetings

The pair have never met before according to my research, so compilers looking at the prices are in limbo on how to price this. When we priced this up, we made Wright at 5/4 – 21/10 for Smith and 7/2 for the draw. Saying this, are we going to tip Smith based on our pricing? Well making a judgement call on this with Smith’s debut could go either way. How would his drubbing at the hands to MVG in the quarter finals at the masters last Sunday done to his morale?

Wright is fast becoming a player you can begin to take on player betting markets to head over, such as checkouts and maximums.

Looking at the pricing, I am confident in Wright’s ability, whereas I do think Michael Smith has been a little Raw at times, and the overwhelming scene on Thursday night may see bullyboy pipped to the post. I think Wright’s Premier League experience will be the deciding factor. The over/under 3.5 market appeals at evens for snakebite as well as the checkout line at 101.50 but being weary of the small handful of chances realistically three-four opportunities for this at 5/6 will be put to one side this week.

Michael van Gerwen (2-5) v James Wade (6-1) – Draw price – 6-1

Head to head – MVG leads 17-11 (PL H2H – MVG leads 3-1)

The only time Wade has beaten MVG was the very first meeting in 2013 where the machine won it 7-4, with the last meeting seeing MVG whitewash James 7-0.

MVG is the overwhelming favourite and will see him in hundreds of darts accas at 4/11 – 2/5. The handicap line is set at a rather disrespectful 3.5 leg head start for Wade, who showed he is capable. MVG’s motivation from the weekend masters win would have given Michael a couple of less intensive days to prepare for Thursday. Wade has been working on his maximums with the assistance of Eric Bristow and showed some good signs last weekend.

However, MVG will want to get off to a winning start and will expect him to fly out the blocks and like the look of MVG breaking the Wade throw within the first six legs, where Bet365 are offering 8/13 for MVG to lead 4-2 or better at the halfway stage with a five point stake.

Phil Taylor (10-11) v Raymond van Barneveld (9-4) – Draw price – 4-1

Head to head – Phil leads 53 – 15 (PL H2H – 16 – 4 – 3)

The interesting stat is that Barney was unbeaten in the last two Premier League campaigns and has not lost since 2013 having won the last three meetings.

Phil looked some way back to his best missing out on the final of the masters last Sunday by the narrowest of margins. Looking at the pricing, Phil at 10/11 might look attractive and why shouldn’t this as he will be throwing first and has such a great record over Barney in general.

This game will be tricky to call after the limitations of last weekend’s action, so would usually be a no bet, although if forced to make a call, the draw does stand out, although the match result and both to win four legs in favour of Taylor is 2/1 at Hills may seek interest. The bet I do like is Taylor to hit the first maximum. Now followers in the past has seen me strike this in the past. The target price is evens, and three firms are offering this. No price below evens is acceptable.

The justification is Taylor throws first and the times we have seen the power open with the first maximum puts the price the wrong way around, with Barney poor value at 10/11. Taylor will often strike early for the maximum, and will eyeball this game especially to put the past couple of years opening nights in the Premier League behind him.

Gary Anderson (13-14) v Adrian Lewis (9-4) – Draw price – 4-1

Head to head – Gary leads 22-17 (PL H2H – 6-2-2)

This game could be tricky to call as both players made early exits from last weekends Masters event. We did mention in our preview that Gary would have had all sorts of commitments post Ally Pally with media and other appearances as commanded as the World Champion.

Lewis on the other hand has a less than desirable record in this competition, which has led to a poor win rate against the defending Premier League Champion!

Gary has dominated the Premier League head to heads and after both were knocked out the first round last weekend, although I think Gary has a strong call to win this, I must quote a no bet for this, as I am not confident on which players will turn up here!

Robert Thornton (40-17) Vs Dave Chisnall (21-20) – Draw price 4-1

Head to head – Dave leads 11-10 (PL H2H – 1-0-1)

Despite the head to head, will the Thorn have been able to get last weekend out his head after leading 8-0 and 9-1 to lose to Chisnall 10-9. Yes the format is shorter, but on a psychological basis what has that done to Robert? Not being able to fall over the line does question what happened in that match. With the head to head, the narrowest of head to head with traded victories in the 2014 campaign certain gives credibility in opposing the price of Chisnall to win this 7-5 or better.

Dave is a BIG 6/1 to hit the most 180s in the Premier League over the sixteen weeks, and can be a value call on the basis you expect him to fill the top four come May this year. At 4/5 for most 180’s in this match will be popular with punters and for very good reason. Chisnall won the count in the epic fightback last weekend 7-4 punters can get 6/4 with Skybet that Chizzy wins the count by two or more.

Beware that the format is shorter, but the crowd atmosphere will be electric.

The general price for the game to go the distance is around 5/4 with Skybet with Hills offering a more attractive market in the match result and both to win four legs market. Hills have this priced up as a 76.80% book, meaning if you are confident both players will win four legs apiece, there is a margin for gain from this market. Even more enhanced is the 72.99% if you applied the 4/1 draw price with Skybet.

Recommendations – (minimum prices quoted below)

  • Ante-post – 9 dart finish: NO 6/4 general 1pt (no lower)

Week one

  • P Wright to beat M Smith – 6/5 William Hill 2pts (Minimum 23/20 accepted)
  • Thornton over 2.5 180s and MVG to beat Wade – 2.11 Bet365 1.5 pts (11/10 acceptable)
  • MVG to beat Wade after six legs – 8/13 Bet365 5pts (no lower price acceptable)
  • Taylor – 1st 180 v Barney – 1/1 Coral, Betway and Bwin 1.5 pts (no lower than 1/1)
40 Comments
  1. Profile photo of jacksonator
    jacksonator 10 months ago

    Nice write ups, will be on these, looking forward to the Premier League being back, nice to get on some darts bets each week and hopefully @bullseye and @tungsten might be giving out some tips too – followed all you guys in the Worlds and before and you won me some decent money so cheers

    • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
      lockuptipster 10 months ago

      Thanks. I am the chief darts tipster on this site, so I would encourage any betting queries, potential bets you want advice on can be asked in the comments section. I will endeavour to reply to every question within reason on darts.

  2. Profile photo of cottweiler
    cottweiler 10 months ago

    Also looking forward to this, its good to get great insight into the darts, I like to have an interest when the darts are on the telly and @bullseye helped me win some cash at last weekends tourney, I will have a good read of all the tips and especially those with good write ups and see which ones take my fancy and thanks to all those taking the time to study and post for our benefit.

    Cheers Cottweiler

    • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
      lockuptipster 10 months ago

      Thanks. I am the chief darts tipster on this site, so I would encourage any betting queries, potential bets you want advice on can be asked in the comments section. I will endeavour to reply to every question within reason on darts.

      Yes I look forward to perhaps having a more indepth chat with Bullseye as I like their style. I am guessing Bullseye is a bloke!

      I have consistently earned profits and have a staking system I remain strict to. I do strive to identify personal judgement value and go from there. It has assisted me yielding in excess of 20% ROI per year for the last 5 years.

    • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
      lockuptipster 10 months ago

      I do like to take pride in my output, and am sure all other darting guru’s on here do also!

  3. Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
    lockuptipster 10 months ago

    “””Darts Q&A***

    General questions taken, betting potentials, backstage news, please share as we are in this all together and want to make the darts features the most consistently profitable on this site!

    Fire away questions, general opinions etc and ill be monitoring this page up to the players toeing the oche on Thursday from 7pm!

    Good luck guys and gals – GAME ON!

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
      Mr Fixit 10 months ago

      lockuptipster, I’ve moved the thread up a bit – looks like the guys are waiting for the football to start.
      Here’s a question – how many times have there been 4 or even 5 draws. I know a few people who back the draws is it really worthwhile?

      • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
        lockuptipster 10 months ago

        There has never been a night with all draws. I know one night had three draws but do not remember four games! I can check :-)

      • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
        lockuptipster 10 months ago

        Who likes betting on draws? The price at 4/1 is acceptable although you will see some games probably as short as 7/2. Thornton and Wade when they meet will be a contender and anticipate one draw tonight

        • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
          Mr Fixit 10 months ago

          lockupstipster, I seem to remember quite a few draws last season and 3 on one night but close to 4.
          I think it’s the price that’s attractive and doing a treble from five could pay a decent amount.

  4. Profile photo of richb20806
    richb20806 10 months ago

    What are the thoughts on skybets enhanced for tonight?

    Van Gerwen, Taylor and Anderson all to win tonight at 5/1?

    • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
      lockuptipster 10 months ago

      Always compare but I know Anderson and Taylor was 10/11 ish so the double there is under 3/1. So imagine with MVG it’s around 4/1 so a point or so boost. Got to be worth a couple of Bob!

  5. Profile photo of scotta83
    scotta83 10 months ago

    Not sure if any other bookies offer odds on the bet but MVG to beat Wade and have most 180’s at 8/11 with Skybet is the bet of the week.

  6. Profile photo of jacksonator
    jacksonator 10 months ago

    With the premier league being on I’m guessing we will have one of these threads a week which will be great to have a separate darts section on the blog. @lockuptipster do you find there is a market you are usually most profitable on (eg 180’s, handicap etc) or are the bets usually a mix – basically wherever there is value?

    Looking forward to watching tonight, me and the boys have been to the premier league and the worlds a few times and its a cracking night out!

    • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
      lockuptipster 10 months ago

      Personal markets I will look at are player match checkouts and 180s. I will look at total maximums but like the 180 handicap

  7. Profile photo of bullseye
    bullseye 10 months ago

    Week one

    Singles:

    Anderson vs Lewis, Anderson win 10/11 **NAP**

    Wright vs Smith, highest checkout score over 117.5 5/6

    Taylor vs Van Barneveld, Taylor over 2.5 180’s 5/6

    Double:

    Van Gerwn vs Wade, Van Gerwen most 180’s
    Thornton vs Chisnall, over 10.5 total legs

    11/10 **NB**

    Anderson defeated Lewis twice in last years premier league and quite convincingly too (7-1 and 7-3). Lewis played poorly against Huybrechts in round one at the masters on the weekend getting smashed 10-4, only averaging 90 and hitting a solitary 180. Anderson, although eliminated by Van der Voort perfromed better, averaging 98 after seventeen legs and hitting four 180’s in the match. Alll things considered I think Anderson will take the win here.

    At the moment, Wright and Smith are amongst the elite group of finishers in the game (along with MVG, Taylor, Lewis and Anderson). They have the priceless ability of being able to checkout high ton finishes under pressure. The line is set at 117.5, which is quite reasonable for both players as they could in theory checkout on a finish involving only one treble, something that they’ve both done countless times before.

    When Taylor and Barney play they always bring the best out of each other. In last year’s Premier league clash they had that epic match where Taylor ended on a phenominal 116 average (second highest recorded on TV trumped only by himself) but he still somehow ended up losing 7-4 to Barney. He hit a massive nine 180’s in that match. Taylor was in very impressive form over the weekend at the masters. Using his new tweaked darts he picked up averages of over 100 in all three of his matches and if it were not for playing mind games with MVG would’ve no doubt got to the final and lifted the trophy. His 180 line is set at 2.5 so there is a decent chance he will surpass it as there is always a high emphasis on trying to break throw to open up a lead.

    I’d expect Van Gerwen to play tonight how he did against Bunting at the weekend. It was simply flawless. He hit six 180’s with four scores in excess of 170 and was on the nine darter three times in that match. He will no doubt want to start his assault on the Premier League in similar fashion so I can only see the 180 contest going in his favour. I can see him getting at least four maximums tonight.

    This weekend at the masters was the first insight into how Chisnall vs Thornton could potentialy play out. Thornton would’ve been having nightmares after his monumental choke when leading 8-0 and eventually going onto lose 9-10. To be fair though the commercial breaks may have played a part in it. Both players are good power scorers so it could go tit for tat. I’d expect both Chisnall and Thornton to be swtched on tonight after their slackness at weekend so on that basis the match should see at least eleven legs.

    Prices with Bet365

    Good luck all

  8. Profile photo of bradmitch
    bradmitch 10 months ago

    Lockuptipster corals do a king of the oche bet (win game most 180s highest checkout) mvg is 7/5 in my opinion he is almost certainly going to win wade is not a prolific 180 hitter although he has improved of late but I believe mvg will smash him on them. That just leaves the highest checkout and I have a feeling that mvg will win 7 1 7 2 so wadie will only probably hit a couple of finishes I think it is quite a good bet and doubled with Anderson to win I’m on..or shall I do wade king of the oche at 40/1????

    • Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
      lockuptipster 10 months ago

      You can usually siphon out the value and think for example yep MVG will win the match and 180s and then it’s the checkout! It depends on how many legs you think James will win. This is the iffy part of the bet and is with all players. Wades throw is less than a smooth throw

  9. Profile photo of paulcwn
    paulcwn 10 months ago

    Anderson game called of

  10. Profile photo of jacksonator
    jacksonator 10 months ago

    He is Ill apparantly. Anyone on the enhanced treble with SkyBet they are making it a double of MVG and Taylor both to win at 11/8

  11. Profile photo of sean567
    sean567 10 months ago

    Wright v smith- over 3.5 smith 180s
    Mvg v wade- over 3.5 Mvg 180s

    Pays 2.16/1 bet 365
    1 point

    Mvg leading after 6 legs
    Wright to win
    Taylor over 2.5 180s
    Chisnall over 3.5 180s

    Pays 8.6/1 bet 365
    1 point

  12. Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
    lockuptipster 10 months ago

    The 11/8 is a bit mean and should be nearer 31/20

  13. Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
    lockuptipster 10 months ago

    Sky etc must have had some Taylor backing with MVG to make an appalling 2.14 so just shy of 23/20

  14. Profile photo of mattyg123
    mattyg123 10 months ago

    Unpredictable night of darts so far.
    Chinsnall win and smith over 3.5 180’s v Lewis
    3 points returns 9.5 points

  15. Profile photo of mattyg123
    mattyg123 10 months ago

    Lost smith was awful tonight

  16. Profile photo of bullseye
    bullseye 10 months ago

    Singles:

    Anderson vs Lewis, Anderson win 10/11 **NAP** VOID

    Wright vs Smith, highest checkout score over 117.5 5/6 WON

    Taylor vs Van Barneveld, Taylor over 2.5 180’s 5/6 LOST

    Double:

    Van Gerwn vs Wade, Van Gerwen most 180’s
    Thornton vs Chisnall, over 10.5 total legs

    11/10 **NB** LOST

    Things didn’t go to plan tonight. MVG is entitled to a poor peformance now and again but Taylor was very disappointing. He hit far too many 60’s and only finished on a ninety average, the complete opposite to how he played on the weekend.

  17. Profile photo of lockuptipster Author
    lockuptipster 10 months ago

    Thanks for all the pointers etc and many thanks to Bullseye this week! Will start examining next weeks markets over the weekend while I attend a darts open tomorrow!

  18. Profile photo of jacksonator
    jacksonator 10 months ago

    That MVG match was a stinger, three up I thought that the main bet would sail in but thats darts, James Wade didn’t do anything spectacular just MVG went totally off the boil which can happen. We move on to next week, cheers for the tips guys, looking forward to a regular weekly darts thread!

  19. Profile photo of Mr Fixit
    Mr Fixit 10 months ago

    dave, I’m not going to approve it – the tone is garbage. Probably why it’s moderated.
    Lockuptipster is the site’s darts man in the same way as Johnb leads the racing forum.

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