Darts: LockupTipsters Premier League Tips – Week 13

MRF_LockupDarts

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WITH three regular weeks left in the competition, this will be the final week where players will play twice. Last but by no means least these are Peter Wright and defending champion Gary Anderson.

How did we perform last week?

In respective Wade missed a couple of chances for the checkout we were in good profit despite this and one other smaller bet that did not suffice, but the trick of gambling is that this is a marathon, not a sprint, so steady profits accumulate over time. Not to be greedy gives you a better chance of maintaining a level head when it comes to decision making.

We did comment and cover below on the total legs market, more for information on stats, as we did not advise anything, but on the night we saw 53 legs, so the 6/4 with Betway came in on the spread between 53 and 54.

Looking at the total legs two weeks before judgment night

  • Week 12 – 53 legs
  • Week 11 – 56 legs
  • Week 10 – 56 legs
  • Week 9 – 59 legs
  • Week 8 – 59 legs
  • Week 7 – 57 legs

At the time of writing, Betway have not offered a market, but we have asked them for a price!

This week’s fixtures from Birmingham:

  • Peter Wright Vs Phil Taylor – Taylor leads 16-5 (3 draws)
  • Raymond van Barneveld Vs Gary Anderson – Barney leads 14-11 (2 draws)
  • Adrian Lewis Vs Robert Thornton – Lewis leads 19-4 (1 draw)
  • James Wade Vs Michael van Gerwen – MVG leads 17-12
  • Peter Wright Vs Gary Anderson – Anderson leads 16-11

The five favourites pay 8.68/1 with Sportingbet for Taylor, Anderson, Lewis, MVG and Anderson in the match order.
Just the heads up that MVG is 5/6 now to top the league with Taylor at the same price and MVG will need to beat Taylor in Rotterdam on the final week and recover the margin of legs which currently stands at six, although MVG currently has the greater legs against the throw. Taylor wants the top spot just as much for the £25K bonus on offer.

Peter Wright Vs Phil Taylor

Taylor leads 16-5 (3 draws)

First up is Snakebite taking on Phil The Power Taylor is a one sided head to head contest, although their last meeting in the Premier League ended in a tie. All of their three draws has been in this competition and they have only met the four times. In fact Wright remains unbeaten against Taylor and is a whopping 37/10 in places, with the draw at 9/2 generally and Phil 8/15 industry wide for the two points.

My concern with Wright in recent weeks has been the news that Snakebite has tinkered with his darts yet again, which has created an inconsistency in our opinion. Wright is 5/2 draw no bet and 8/5 on the draw or win market, with 5/6 with a 2.5 leg head start. For any chance of Wright to look at the top four will need all four points this week to take him to fifteen points, which Lewis occupies this position before throwing a dart on Thursday.

Those that have followed me in the past will know how keen I am on taking Taylor on for the first maximum. I noticed a while back he has a trend of going for one early on to get into the match, although he is prone for the 19’s cover shot. With Wright’s tweaking of the darts, I am more confident than not that both players are in different places at the minute and Taylor meets our target price.

Raymond van Barneveld Vs Gary Anderson

Barney leads 14-11 (2 draws)

Interestingly, the pair have met four times since last years meeting and Gary has won the lot since. Barney won this meeting on April 30, 2015 and since lost at the World Cup, Grand Slam, Premier League and a pro-tour event.

Barney has said that he intends to take a bit of a break from the pro tour until after the world series to concentrate on these events, but is in real danger of losing his world cup place to Jelle Klassen on this basis.

The pair has met 11 times in this competition with Anderson winning three, two draws and seven losses.

The result of this game will be dependent on the positioning come the end of the night. The game is as import to Anderson as is Barneveld. The record does favour Barney marginally, although Anderson has been playing some effective darts and is a keen favourite to make the o2 in the next few weeks.

Bookies tend to have this game well covered, although I expect the pace of the game to see a good average from Barney, with the line set at 97.5. There is confidence in this and will be demonstrated with the staking at the end of this feature.

Adrian Lewis Vs Robert Thornton

Lewis leads 19-4 (1 draw)

Jackpot is holding on to his fourth spot and will feel comfortable on the fact that The Thorn has not beaten Lewis in two years, which was on this round in the Premier League. Since the duo has played out nine games, with one draw in the mix with the former two-time World Champion winning all of the last five.

Thornton is out the competition now but has been far from a gatecrasher losing to Barney and Taylor since beating Wright a fortnight ago.

Bookies tend to have the maximum markets covered this week, with Lewis looking a little disappointing on this front last week.

Darts Panel member on my blog @joeceppi made me aware of the Thornton most maximums at 2/1 with Bwin, and full credit for the potential value find.

Expect this to be a tight game, where ascertaining a winner is difficult and would not be surprised if the game went the distance, but begins as a cagey affair at 8/11 for NO 180 in the first leg.

James Wade Vs Michael van Gerwen

MVG leads 17-12

The Machine is just a point off fourth as the eight players roll into Birmingham but faces a challenging task at trying to keep MVG at bay. The last two outings has gone Wade’s way, with a victory on the opening night as well as a World Series win. The opening night was a weird game to watch, as MVG flew out the blocks to take the early lead, before a string of misses led to defeat for the world No.1 and screwed a number of accumulators that night.

Wade is BIG at 6/1 with the draw a slight enhancement at 13/2 with Skybet and Mighty-Mike 1/3 with Paddy Power. MVG is 4/6 with Skybet to win the game and most 180s and 10/11 with the same firm to win the maximum count by two or more!

Wade is potential value for an 83 or better checkout 5/6 with Paddy Power, with all other firms setting the line at 91.5. Similarly MVG to hit a 98 or better checkout is the same price with the Irish firm.

We cannot deny liking MVG to win the most 180s market here and is boosted to evens with Paddy Power to win by 2 or more over Wade, who does not hit as many and struggles on this at times.

Peter Wright Vs Gary Anderson

Anderson leads 16-11

Since 2014 the pair has met eight times, where Gary have won five and Snakebite winning the other three.

As mentioned in in previous week’s the players in the second game has generally been lacklustre compared to game one and depending on how game one goes will depend on the mood of this game.

Without the big preview, I do think the 180 line at 7.5 is generous for 7 or fewer at 4/6 with Paddy Power.
Best of luck folks!

Recommendations:

  • Taylor – 1st 180 Vs Wright – 1/1 general 1.5 pts
  • Barneveld over 97.5 average & NO 180 1st leg (Wright/Anderson – 3.17 PPower 1pt
  • Under 7.5 180s – Anderson/Wright – 4/6 general (7/10 Marathonbet) 3pts
  • Wade over 82.5 checkout Vs MVG – 5/6 Paddy Power – 1pt
  • MVG -1 180s Vs Wade – 1/1 Paddy Power 2pts
  • Lewis/Thornton – NO 1st leg 180 – 3/4 Betfair – 2pts
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1 Comment
  1. Profile photo of stubhoy
    stubhoy 1 year ago

    4 fold for tonght

    GARY ANDERSON v Barney
    Most 180s 8/13

    MVG v The Machine
    Most 180s 2/5

    ROBERT THORNTON v Jackpot
    Over 2.5 180s 8/11

    GARY ANDERSON v Snakebite
    Over 3.5 180s 8/11

    5.74/1 Bet 365

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