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FOR those that have followed my good self will know we take Darts very seriously when it comes to betting and applying our assessments versus the odds compilers to try and seek out the value. Of course Value is only defined by the persons opinion. You will probably not have read this anywhere else, so yes we have said it.
For those seeing my previous report at www.lockuptipster.weebly.com we were quick to suggest that MVG would be difficult to oppose after his dominate display in winning the premier league last Thursday!
We were previewing on a basis of our own seeding and the top four was correct. However importantly we had to wait until Wednesday (the day before) for the draw for the competition and is thus:
- 1 MVG Vs Wright
- 4 Lewis Vs Chisnall
- 3 Anderson Vs Barney
- 2 Taylor Vs Wade
- MVG – 1/1 Sportingbet and Stan James
- Taylor – 5/1 888sport and Coral
- Anderson – 6/1 888sport and Coral
- Lewis – 12/1 general
- Wright – 20/1 Boylesports
- Chisnall – 20/1 Boylesports
- Wade – 33/1 Boylesports
- Barney – 33/1 Boylesports
- Each way terms – 1/3 odds
Adrian Lewis Vs Dave Chisnall – 4/5 (William Hill) – 6/5 (Coral)
Players tied on 10-10
You could argue that Lewis at the back end of last season was in great form and was a value each way selection for the World Championship, which he lost out to Anderson. From October onwards making the semi final of the European Championships, quarter final of the slam, semi final of the world series, and final of the players championship and World finals. Since bar a pro tour win and a semi final to the premier league has not done too much on the floor but this is TV.
Dave Chisnall has in places improved since his exit from the Premier League having made back to back European tour finals earlier this month.
Lewis appeared at the premier league to have chances versus MVG and was unable to take chances MVG did put on offer from his misses. The question is, how deflated would Lewis be from this? Coming into this is Dave Chisnall, who from making two successive European Tour finals and a few comments on board has looked good and ready to go.
The pricing in my opinion is fair although the Lewis 4/5 is a price I have little confidence in. The last six has seen a zig-zag in victories, so on balance of this Chisnall is set to win. Chisnall edges the 2015 head to head and Chizzy won the only Premier League meeting this term.
On the handicap, Lewis has a two leg deficit at 11/10 with Hills and 10/11 for Chisnall with 1.5 legs on side at 10/11 with Boylesports. Chisnall is king of 180 and is 4/6 with major firms, with Lewis 9/4 and the tie at 6/1. The tie does stand out as the open air setting may not affect the maximum count too much, but worth bearing in mind.
With the setting and opening leg, with a variation of 4/7 – 4/5 on NO leg one 180 in our view is worthy of taking on. With the heat setting and Dubai weather factors the pair may not be the most athletic, but think the price on a first leg maximum should be higher. I like the look of the total leg market with Skybet, although I wanted evens for 17-19 legs but is only 10/11. I do think the 180 line is HIGH at 11.5 and Bwin are the firm to take on at 11/13 for fewer than a dozen maximums in the game and will consider an enhanced stake for this.
Phil Taylor Vs James Wade – 4/11 (Hills) – 13/5 (Boylesports)
Phil leads 48-10
The old guard – well seems like it face off one more time with Taylor well ahead in the head to head and bitter from losing the premier league final in some fashion to MVG who in other words wiped the floor against Taylor!
It has been around 18 months since Wade has beaten Taylor on TV, whereas since bar two pro-tour wins has lost the lot against Taylor.
This game will be difficult to call on the basis of the confidence in Taylor and/or Wade from recent form. Taylor is the true FAV at 4/11 ON. Since 2013, Taylor has won 10 meetings with 2 draws and 4 defeats and Wade will need to match Taylor on scoring to look at a potential semi-final clash with the winner of Anderson and Barney.
We looked at the good old faithful markets and Taylor is 8/11 for first maximum, below our valuation. Wade is a shade of value at 5/4 for 4 or more maximums overall but on recent action is a market to swerve. Taylor in the same market is 4/6 for 4 or more.
This is a game where I do not see much in the sense of betting, so a no bet.
Gary Anderson Vs Raymond van Barneveld – 6/17 (888sport) – 5/2 (Boylesports)
Barney leads 14-12
The head to head is interesting as the last five outing spanning over a year has gone the way of Anderson which includes 4 TV games and a pro-tour event. Barney is taking a big risk if he is intending not to compete on the pro-tour until the autumn season in September and his selective participation has led to him dropping out the top ten once again. Luckily enough due to Klassen being not available for selection pockets a free meal ticket to the World Cup next week, where he and MVG are the 7/4 favourites.
I suspect Barney will perform as the usual script and against an Anderson, who himself has enjoyed settling in for the few days earlier this week will be looking at pocketing a spot into finals day.
Again, there is little on offer to take from this game, so another no bet for us!
Michael van Gerwen Vs Peter Wright – MVG – 1/5 William Hill – Wright – 23/5 Marathonbet
MVG leads 34-8
In the last sixteen meetings Wright’s only victory in this time came in Japan last June in an emotional 8-7 win where Wright broke down in tears knowing the last win was some year and months before that.
MVG has dominated the field over the last few years and has Wright psychologically beaten. Hills are 1/5 with Wright at 23/5 with Marathonbet. MVG is the outright to win the 180 count at 8/11 with Betfair which is fair in comparison. Wright has made himself unavailable for selection for the world cup, which is a shame having had he and Anderson teamed there was scope for each way plays to be made.
I like the most 180’s price, and all other markets appear to be covered!
- MVG to win the tourney (already advised – 5/4 BetVictor/Sportingbet)
- Lewis/Chisnall – 1st leg 180 NO – 4/5 Bet365/Unibet – 4/5 (3pts)
- Lewis/Chisnall – U11.5 180s – 11/13 Bwin – (2pts)
- MVG most 180s Vs Wright – 8/11 Betfair (3pts)
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