Cheltenham 2016: Voice of Value’s Novices’ Handicap Chase & Acca Tips

MRF_VoV_CheltenhamPosts

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Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

  • 5.30 p.m.
  • 2m 4f
  • Fences
  • Class 1 Listed Race
  • Novice Chasers – i.e those who had not won a race over fences before the start of the season

This one is another competitive handicap with plenty of them who have questions to answer but also the potential for big improvement. Given the number of entries for the race the whole field are only separated by 4 pounds (lb) of weight so on official ratings there is very little between them all.

Aloomomo will be popular for the race and is already quite short in the betting. He has looked impressive in winning three chases this season but this is another step up in class and it’s not certain that he will take it in his stride. He wasn’t classy over hurdles and I’m not tempted at the current price.

BRIDGETS PET impressed with his win last time out against Morning Assembly, will stay the trip no problem and is versatile ground-wise. With Shane Shortall a useful apprentice jockey taking 5 lb off the weights I think he could run a big race at a big price.

I also like another one in the race in the shape of KILLALA QUAY. Having the British Champion Jockey-elect Richard Johnson on board is a huge positive as is his form over hurdles (4th in the Neptune in 2014) and his most recent run over fences where he looked like he might finally have cracked it after a few disappointing runs over fences. If he is indeed improving he has more potential than most and looks like good value.

Recommendations:

  • BRIDGETS PET – 0.5 pts each way at 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
  • KILLALA QUAY – 0.5 pts each way at 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

That concludes the round-up for Tuesday’s races and hopefully we’re not turning out our pockets looking for the shrapnel to pay for a pint come 5.45pm.

The Voice of Value’s ‘Hail Mary’ Accumulator

As I touched on in an earlier post I think it might be useful to put together a nice accumulator that will run through the week for us, hopefully returning a few quid by the time we are finished. Any professional punter will tell you that multiples are the hardest way to turn a profit so don’t go mad on this but it should give us a wee bit of fun by incorporating some of the shorter-priced horses that might not hold much appeal when you’re placing single bets. It also lets you cheer on Douvan on Tuesday as he gallops away from the rest of them.

Selections (prices from Ladbrokes):

  • Douvan 4/11 – Arkle (Tuesday) – Wins with a clear round of jumping.
  • Vroum Vroum Mag 5/6 – Mares Hurdle (Tuesday) – Great value, even at the short price. Should also win with a clear round.
  • Un De Sceaux 4/6 – Champion Chase (Wednesday) – Wins with a clean round of jumping unless Sprinter Sacre can roll back the years.
  • Josies Orders 5/2 – Cross Country (Wednesday) – Cracking value, the clear choice on form and has won twice over the course this season.
  • Limini 4/5 – Mares Novice Hurdle (Thursday) – A touch of class in one of the poorer races and looks a Mullins banker.

Recommendation:

  • 5 x 2pt fourfolds = 11pts
  • 1 x 1pt fivefold
  • Total bet = 12 pts

The combined odds are around 25/1 for the fivefold and a minimum of 13/2 for the lowest priced fourfold. This will hopefully give us a bit of fun over three separate days and with a bit of luck we will have something running on to Limini on Thursday. Remember though, if two of the five selections lose the bet will return nothing so don’t get greedy – no such thing as a ‘banker’ in horse racing, just ask Annie Power.

If anyone has any questions please drop me a message or send me a tweet to @thevoiceofvalue and I’ll be happy to help!

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