GOLF'S Czech Masters is underway and later it's the start of The Barclays where we'll see if Rory McIlroy can make it four tournament wins in a row.
Our golf tipster Ace Venturer has gone against McIlroy this week believing he won't be his sharpest after a mini break.
His top tips put up on Tuesday are Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia and he's backing Scotland's Stephen Gallacher to win in Prague.
This thread isn't just for golf and Ad and his crew have been busy with tennis tips so look out for those.
In fact any other sports tips should be posted here including F1, cricket, snooker and rugby.
Ace Venturer's golf tips
Rickie Fowler 3pts ew 20-1 (Ladbrokes, bet365)
Sergio Garcia 2pts ew 20-1 (Betfred)
Hunter Mahan 1pt ew 50-1 (bet365)
In December 2020 we sadly 
Cycling: Vuelta 2014
This Saturday the last grand tour of the year starts with the Vuelta (tour of Spain). I will try to post a bet for every stage in the race. If have got one bet pre-race.
Joaquim Rodriguez on the podium (1-3) @2.15
Price with Unibet
With Quintana and Froome starting as favourites it looks like the rest will have to fight for place 3. I expect Quitana to win the Vuelta, but don’t know if Froome will be at his best. After a broken wrist and hand in the Tour the France I don’t know what to expect from him. Rodriguez will be the first one to try to take his place and is always at his best in the Vuelta.
Isner has just withdrawn sending Rosol through, which is great news for the outright tips. Isner was the big favourite at this event and it’s now wide open without him.
So Federer has just landed an absolutely dream draw for the U.S open. I tipped him at 9/1 ten days or so ago and he’d dropped to 4/1 before the draw was done following a Cincinnati title for Roger and the anticipated withdrawal of Nadal. He’s only going to be cut further now with Murray, Tsonga, Wawinka and Raonic all landing in Djokovic’s half.
From a quick look at the draw, the value outright bets have to be Cilic @ 170/1 and Ferrer @ 70/1. I can’t see anyone else winning their quarter, with a beatable Berdych being the other toughest player in that section. And while either would likely fall to Federer in the semis, their odds will have tumbled a long way by then.
Those prices are on betfair exchange, and having just placed a bet on Cilic myself the price has dropped. Ferrer is still at 70/1 for now.
Ad, Federer is arguably a freak tennis player. To keep playing as well as he has at his age is remarkable. Roger Federer is ready to fill the Rafael Nadal-shaped hole at this year’s US Open.
There has long since been a discussion regarding who is the superior tennis player, Federer or Nadal?
Elegance, finesse and poise or power, tenacity and tirelessness.
The two are polar opposites, but, in their own right, should be considered as two of the greatest players to have ever graced the sport. Federer, the gentleman of tennis, sits atop the pile with an astounding 17 Grand Slam titles, whilst Nadal, the raging bull, has 14 to his name.
In that, the Swiss maestro has the edge over his Spanish rival, but in head-to-head meetings Nadal is some way in front.
It seems that the argument may never be settled, but the news that Nadal will be unable to compete at this year’s US Open added another dimension to the quarrel.
Federer will participate in his 60th consecutive Grand Slam when he walks out on Arthur Ashe Stadium next week. The 33-year-old has not missed one of the four prestigious tournaments since 1999, when he lost in the same tournament as a youthful serve-volleying 18-year-old.
In comparison, Nadal, who is five years Federer’s junior, misses his seventh Major and is unable to defend a Slam title for the second time in his astonishing career.
After a bitterly disappointing 2013, by the Swiss star’s lofty standards, he is once again firing on all cylinders. The back injury that plagued him during last season is now a distant memory, whilst the combination of the new and expanded 97-square-inch racket and Stefan Edberg on the sidelines has made it easier for Federer to move forward into the net, where he achieves so much success.
never been one to go in for the greatest of all time arguments. Its all relative to the time in which you play and so comparing Laver to Rafa is just stupid. Laver would get beaten by some top modern day county players. With Rafa and Roger you can obviously compare directly, and Rafa does have the edge on head to head. But I think it’s a bad match up of styles for Roger, rather than Rafa’s game being better than his. Massive top spin coming consistently deep to his one handed backhand is rarely going to be a battle he comes out on top in. But there’s never been anyone as successful, graceful, inventive and as wonderful to watch as Federer, and the fact he’s the greatest ambassador a sport could ever ask for is just the icing on top. He has a great shot at the U.S title now and I really hope he gets it. The old boy deserves it for the way he’s worked to improve and adapt his game this year. especailly after being written off by a lot of people out there.
Ad, loving the avatar. As you say he has a great shot of winning the US masters and glad you got the 9/1 as it now looks a quality bet.
Going to have a bit of that myself with the cash out thing appearing to be good so going with what you think there should be a good opportunity for some decent profit
There should be Wato. Ferrer’s route to the semi final is likely to be Dzumhur, Tomic, Simon, Cilic, Berdych. And that is very manageable for Daveed. Cilic will be tough if he makes it that far and that’s why i’ve picked him out too at even better odds. Ferrer has played his way into form recently and thought obviously he could fall before the semis, he has to be considered the favourite from that quarter to make it there.
You know your tennis ad I’ll give you that
These guys do yeah been some good tips on here in the last couple of weeks
Sadly the cash out button will no longer be available tomorrow morning :( lol
Ad – I got on Cilic and Ferrer earlier in the week. Slightly worried by Tomic in Rd2. Let’s hope the old man can do it this year. Karlovic and Dimitrov/ Monfils will be tough though.
I flagged Rybarikova on other thread – was 8/11 to win. Just came in, in 3 sets. Lost set 2 6-0 but tanked it after going break down.
2 down 2 to go – Lu/ Rybarikova have won / got Querry/ Stosur to come.
Cycling: Vuelta 2014
This is some crazy match-up. Evans did a decent Giro and Ten Dam did a very very good Tour de France. You can’t be at best in the Vuelta after the hardest race in the world, so Evans has a big advantage here. Ten Dam has to work for Kelderman and Evans is the head of the BMC team.
EVANS v Ten Dam @ 1.93 looks like easy money
Ad, thank you for your info as I always read what you have to say…
In your opinion can you please confirm your 8 last standing ?
Thank you
Sorry Wato, bad advice on the cash out In hindsight.
I only saw half of the second set but I haven’t seen Janowocz play that well in a long time. An impressive and surprisingly consistent performance, unfortunately.
I’m going for
Djokovic
Murray
Pospisil
Raonic
Lopez
Ferrer
Dimitrov
Federer
A couple of risky picks in there that could make me look a little silly! Don’t be shocked if Tsonga upsets the party at the top of the draw. It all depends which Novak, Murray and Tsonga turn up.
Ad, is there really that much difference between clay, grass and hardcourt? If so could you give me your analysis of why some surfaces suit Federer, Nadal and Murray and others dont.
cooldude, Ad will give a better analysis than me but there are huge differences and a lot depends on what a player was brought up on. Nadal loves sliding about the clay and is almost unbeatable while it’s a pretty alien surface to Murray and Federer who both prefer grass and hardcourt as does Djokovic. Grass used to suit big servers more but they’ve brought in measure to slow them down.
cheers Mr f
Dude, as Mr F says, what players are used to is a big factor. It’s no coincidence that most of the spanish players in the top 100 are at their best on a clay court. Growing up in Spain, where the majority of tennis courts are clay, Nadal has been playing on the surface since he was a little kid. He’ll have learnt to play the game- how to move and how to hit the ball- on it. It’s not something Murray, Federer, Djokovic would have had much exposure to til they were a bit older and travelling around on tour. And then it’s a case of adapting your game to suit a clay court, rather than it being intuitive.
Another reason Nadal loves clay is the amount of spin he puts on the ball. He puts more topspin on his groundstrokes than any other player out there, past or present, and because a ball is gripped by the clay when it hits the court, it slows down and kicks up higher, which not only means Nadal’s opponents are having to hit the ball at closer to shoulder height than the more comfortable waist height, but also that Nadal has more time to put his incredible footwork to use and run around his backhand to keep barraging them with forehands.
Physically and mentally, Rafa is perfect for clay. He has the speed and endurance to cover the court faster and for longer than anyone else (bare in mind clay tournaments are often played in very hot conditions), and he has the mental toughness to stay focussed throughout the points, which are longer and more exhausting than on other surfaces due to the slower speed of the court, and the strength endurance to keep hitting big shots.
Grass bounces the lowest of all the surfaces and plays very fast ( though not as fast as it did 10 years ago.) The low bounce and the speed of the court helps Roger’s single hander, his big forehand, his superb serve and his aggressive style (and his recently resurrected net game.) He also has an excellent backhand slice, which stays very low on grass. Rafa seems to struggle because he is vulnerable to players, even far lesser players, who have the ability to step into the court and hit big, flat groundstrokes, e.g. Rosol, Kyrgios. He doesn’t have nearly as much time on the ball as he does on clay and the effectiveness of his heavy spin is significantly reduced as the ball doesn’t kick up off the surface.
Hard courts are pretty much in the middle in terms of speed and the bounce of the ball, though the speed of a hard court can vary from tournament to tournament. Rafa, Roger, Murray and Novak have all excelled on the surface, and whereas you find players who really struggle to adapt to a grass court or a clay court, pretty much everyone can play their game to a high level on a hard court as it’s not a “specialist” surface. It’s why you don’t tend to see as much dominance by one particular player at the hard court tournaments as all of the best player in the world are competitive on the surface.
Having said all that, Novak and Roger have both worked so hard on their games over the years that they are now both exceptional on all surfaces, they just aren’t quite as exceptional as Rafa on clay. And that’s nothing to be ashamed of!
Ad, I guess that clears up everything :)
Good wins for Stosur and Querry last night brought in my 4-fold at 4-1.
I’m looking at a simple double today –
Lu v Rosol 4/9
Kvitova v Stosur 4/9
Double pays 1.1/1
I was going to post the same Lu/ Kvitova double up Iddy but saw you’d done the same so added Janowicz to win a set. Good luck, it’l take a big wobble from Kvitova or a huge Stosur performance to upset it.
Mr Orange – is Evans v Ten Dam a tip for stage bet or an overall tour bet. And how confident are u on this. I couldn’t find a top 3 finish on WH/ B365. Who is it with?
This one is with 888sport and unibet mate. It is for the overall tour, general classification. I can’t see Ten Dam going for a place in the GC, I think Evans will get a top 10 finish.
Iddy I think you can only get these match ups on unibet, as I’ve looked before as well. I haven’t got an account with them but I always watch out for Mr. Orange’s tips. He definitely knows his cycling and has had lots of winners.
Indians @ Twins
Indians over 3.5 runs @ 1.74 *LOSE*
Twins win 4-1
Braves @ Reds
Braves @ 1.63 *WIN*
Braves win 8-0
Padres @ Dodgers
Under 5.5 @ 1.83 *WIN*
Dodgers win 2-1
One to watch in play
Tigers @ Rays
Price is pitching for the first time against the team that traded him. He’s already admitted it’s going to be emotional and difficult to pitch against friends. If he’s not focused he may struggle with his control, if he has a poor first innings I think it will be worth backing the rays.
Took Rays @ 1.4 in play
Rays win 1-0
when Price gave up a run in the first. That was their only hit of the game, so got a bit lucky really.
3/4 so happy with that. No tip for the early game of the day, so I’ll be back before midnight, hopefully with a couple more winners.
Well after starting the day with an essay, it’s time for some tips!
Yesterday was disappointing with Goffin losing, but at least he fell to my other outright tip Janowicz who is looking very strong.
Daily Treble
Lu d Rosol
Kvitova d Stosur
Janowicz to win a set v Querrey
Treble pays 9/4
Despite being in the semi final, Rosol has won just 2 sets this week. He was a set down to Johnson in R1 but Johnson withdrew, he came from behind to beat clay court specialist Andujar in R2 before Isner withdrew from their quarter final match. LU has played 6 sets and won them all. Lu has looked very comfortable this week, and looked comfortable the only time these two have met, beating Rosol 6-3, 6-2 last year. Hard to see a not totally sharp Rosol getting past an in form and very consistent Lu here.
I only saw 30 mins of Janowicz match v Goffin yesterday but he was playing superbly. Breaks of serve should be at a premium here with both men possessing a monstrous delivery, but Janowicz is the more versatile player and owns an excellent drop shot which could cause Querrey all sorts of problems (it caused Goffin problems and he covers the court far better than the giant American.) Breaking serve could be the problem for Janowicz though, and that’s putting me off the straight Janwoicz win. Querrey has been broken just once this week, and has fired 66 aces to 10 doubles this week. Janowicz has been broken 6 times and managed just 23 aces to 22 doubles. However, he served 0 doubles in his last match and faced just one break point against a red hot Goffin. He looks to be playing his best tennis at the right time this week, and will take confidence from winning his only match against todays opponent in straight sets last year. I can’t risk the win, and have already tipped him to win the tournament, but i’m confident he can get at least a set today.
Kvitova looked in ominous form once she got her teeth into Zahalova Strycova yesterday. Stosur is a bit of a surprise package in the semi finals having carried absolutely no form into this tournament. Kvitova is the better player right now, dominates the head to head 5-1 (the one defeat coming on clay) and will likely cope better with the pressure moments than her opponent.
Anyone confident in Janowicz can trade him to win a set for him to win the match, which will boost the price from 9/4 to to 9/2. As ever though, no guarantees with Jerzy!
Glad we got the same today ad.
How r u tackling us open? I am going to look at R1 matches over weekend and pick out my selections.
Hope we can pick out some that are priced wrong
Yes mate, looking forward to getting my teeth stuck into some first round analysis. Just been waiting for the qualifiers to finish. I’ll have a good look over the weekend and we can compare notes. I’ve got outrights placed on Federer, Cilic and Ferrer and I’ll just be taking things day by day once it kicks off.
As for the womens side: The bottom quarter of the draw is absolutely horrible, there are about 8 players in there who have a realistic chance of making the semi final. Safarova looks to have a decent chance of going deep and @140/1 w betfair could be a good outsider bet. Azarenka @ 33/1 is tempting just because you’ll never get odds close to that when she’s on form and with an easy first couple of rounds she could play he way into form here. In terms of picking someone with a more realistic chance of winning the title, Kvitova looks the best bet @ 12/1. What do you think Iddy? Any ante posts from you?
I got on Ferrer/ Cilic and Monfils earlier in week. Fed at 8:1 was a great tip but I don’t like betting on Fed.
In women’s – the 2 I picked out are a bit short – Radwanska at 20/1 and Kerber at 40/1. Both seem to have ok draws, but that’s on first glance.
Need to have a look at Vikas draw – 33/1 is great but remember Montreal and the knee v Radwanska. Can it recover in 2 weeks?
To win a set doubles/ trebles might be a market we need to investigate as well.
Hi Ad,
Thank you for the eight buddy
Kind regards
Fish
No worries fish. I look forward to comparing them to the actual 8 in a fortnights time!
Yeah it’s obviously a calculated risk the Azarenka selection. She’s probably more likely to withdraw in her first game than to win the tournament, but you never know.
I’ll certainly keep my eyes on the to win a set market. I’ll be back tomorrow with some preliminary thoughts.
Im sticking to the Football guys having a nightmare with the tennis….. Took Muguruza…. Then Bouchard to beat Stosur, N tonight Lu…. Not looking likely….
Rory 8.1 soft course he going to make a move the weekend.
Ernie we were let down by Lu today – 3 break back points in last game and didn’t convert
I’ve done some light reading but not done enough research to tip anything tonight. I’m breaking my own rules and doing a small stakes 4-fold for fun.
Yankees
Indians
Marines
Royals
@5.63
They’re all short price favorites ,but this is for fun more than anything.
Don’t know where to post this but it’s the original baseball, Surrey to win the finals day @ 2/1.
Mon the Rey!!!
Cycling: Vuelta stage 1
There is a 13km team time trial to kick off the Vuelta this year. Not much information about the stage, it is short with some twists and turns.
I will be on below match-ups, winner in capitals:
IAM CYCLING v Mtn Qhubeka
TEAM SKY v Orica Greenedge
Qhubeka is simply the worst team in cycling. It is a project with African cyclists and some European guys. The Swiss IAM team should be much better then them.
Team Sky has some guys who can ride fast on this flat track. With Froome, Kennaugh, Rowe, Cataldo, Knees, well I can mention the whole team. They should be faster than the Ozzies. They haven’t got their best team at the start in Spain.
Price with 888sport
That’s a double @ 2.14
For anyone on my janowicz outright tip he is a day up and Rosol is out to around 9/2 to win. cover available for anyone nervous about a comeback
Cycling: Vuelta stage 2
No time for a long write-up, it’s gonna be a sprint.
I will be on below match-ups, winner in capitals:
HOFLAND v Boonen
BOUHANNI v Degenkolb
Double @ 2.24 with 888sport