BOURNEMOUTH must have hoped playing two days after their promotion rivals would be an advantage but they couldn’t have wished for better results on Saturday.
While Watford booked promotion to the Premier League by winning at Brighton, Middlesbrough’s dramatic defeat at Fulham and Norwich’s draw at Rotherham means Eddie Howe’s unfashionable outfit will seal their spot in the top flight for the first time by beating Bolton at home.
Bournemouth’s goal difference means a win on Monday will effectively see them up and while they slipped up against Sheffield Wednesday last time out they haven’t lost at home since January 10. There will be a crackling atmosphere at the Goldsands and the home crowd should be able to see their favourites across the line.
Bolton improved under Neil Lennon and comfortably avoided the drop but they haven’t been great away from home, winning just four times, and have lost at the ground of every team in the top seven.
Adam Smith at right-back for the banned Simon Francis is likely to be Bournemouth’s only change while Neil Danns and Barry Bannan are back in the Bolton squad after a breach of club discipline.
Josh Vela is out while Matt Mills is a doubt with an ankle problem. Paddy McCarthy has gone back to Crystal Palace after receiving a knock on his ankle while Max Clayton, David Wheater, Simeon Slavchev, Darren Pratley, Craig Davies and Zach Clough remain on the treatment table.
Bournemouth are no bigger than 3-10 with the likes of William Hill to pick up the points so we have elsewhere for value. There should be goals with five of Bolton’s last six seeing both score and Bournemouth netting at least two in four of their last six.
Both to score tempts at 21-20 with Ladbrokes as Bournemouth have conceded four in their last two home games against Wednesday and Birmingham. Over 2.5 goals is just 4-7 at Ladbrokes.
Bournemouth are well capable of scoring 3+ but it pays just 1-1 at Coral while Bolton just to score is 10-11 at betfair (no clean sheet).
Hitman Callum Wilson and French star Yann Kermorgant will be the players expected to see the home men over the line. Wilson netted a double in the 2-1 at the Reebok earlier this season and is 7-2 at bet365 to score first and 19-20 at 888sport to net. Penalty taker Kermorgant is 6-5 with the same firm.
If Bournemouth aren’t hit by a bout of nerves they can win this well and 4-5 with Ladbrokes minus one is worth a look.
Bournemouth v Bolton btts
(4-5, Paddy Power)
Wilson to score first
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